Uncapped in Ms. casino. Villain bought for $2500. I am only non regular at table. Hero: middle age white, tight agg. Image. Vil. Is 50's black guy. I have picked off single street bluffs from him at orphan pots X2 in last 2 hours. He has seen me push on flop with nut flush draw earlier in sess.
Hand: Hero on button with AcKc. I have been raising about 30 percent of my buttons. 3 call the $6 straddle. I raise to $35. Villain is straddle utg. He and 3 others call.
Flop: ($170) QcTc9d. Checks to me, I bet 80. I have button & huge equity & don't mind action. Villain c/r to $200.
We?

What is your stack size? Also, did the other 3 V’s fold to the c/r?

As CWsports mentioned, can't properly advise yet. Your stack size is super crucial here.

What's the effective stack? I'm assuming villain covers you, because shoving for his entire stack is a very big overbet.

Stack size is $1050. Everyone else folds. Will be heads up.

I'm doubting he has sets of Qq TT or flush draws as a large part of his range here. Two pair, straight or smaller flush draw are possible, but with me holding AcKc and Qc10c on board, legitimate flush draws are few.

V c/r 4 players so that shows extreme strength. Also, the # of flush draws he can have is severely limited. I’d put V on a range of 99, TT, KJs, KJo, QTs, Q9s, T9s, Jc9c, 9c8c, and 8c7c and against that range we are a decent amount behind. Therefore, I’d just call and see a turn card IP.

3b AI looks like a draw or an over pair so expect to be called light and by made hands. I, like you indicate for yourself, don't mind variance so I'm gambooly jamming it here some of the time and riding the train. I don't expect V to always have a made hand. In my donkey games V has J10 more often than QQ.

I guess though at $120 into $330, call isn't terrible either. Only issue is it may be hard to get paid if you hit.

I probably shove at this pot and have the money in the middle, else we may not get paid when we make it or he may fold now.

in position, i prefer calling here.

i think when we 3bet we narrow villain's range to hands where we are only ~40% equity with the exception of maybe 8c7c.

a lot of people in this forum talk about how because the straddle is on, we are only ~166bb effective and begin to make decisions solely based off of that. while that is true, i think it shouldnt affect our decisions as much as people here want it to. in the end, villains in a $1/3 are not going to be stacking off for $1k without a monster hand on this flop. they simply aren't thinking "straddle is on, we are only 160bb eff, and so i need to widen my stacking off range."

It's hard to see villain x/r this flop as a total bluff. hands like AQ are extremely questionable to be x/r as well.

his x/r looks strong, but his sizing is small. we can easily call and see a turn in position profitably.

Am I the only one who is not thrilled about cbetting here? We are cbetting into 4 opponents on a crazy wet board that is primed to get check raised with sets and big draws.

As played I’d call.


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i think not cbetting is a pretty big mistake especially in position. OOP there might be some merit to x/c... but cbetting folds out a lot of equity vs some hands that have pairs vs us that just cant continue on this board texture. if we get x/r like we did here, we have so much equity that we can continue easily. more times than not, if we brick, we can check back turn for pot control or opt to continue barreling.

there are some draws that have massive RIO against us as well.

dont see much reason to not c-bet

I'd rather check flop. All the made hands we're trying to cooler are gonna play this flop as fast as possible, and there's a good chance you'll be forcing out lower draws, especially random Kx stuff.

Villain did us a huge favor of giving us such a cheap price to see one card for stupid cheap and made it so that shoving turn would price us out, so I'd take advantage of that. No FE in raising anyway, so I don't see the rush to shovel our remaining $750+ into the middle as a dog regardless of how much you like gambling.