Okay so a bit about the history hand first.. I get a table change and pick up two black AA on my first hand in the BB with a stack of $480.
V on my immediate left (1k) raises to 30, 3 calls, I make it 150 in BB, he tanks for a minute and then calls, BTN (500+) calls too.
Flop comes 765ddd I shove 330, he tanks again for 2 minutes, all uncomfortable, says “there’s only one hand I’m afraid of and could be drawing dead” while there’s still another player left to act, and then makes a crying call. BTN folds. He rolls over KK with the Kd and the board bricks out, I win the pot.
V then proceeds to say that if the flop was 762r or something, he was 100% folding on the flop.
Around 15-20 mins later, I ($1k+) pick up two black AA again UTG and raise to $25, V ($450) calls in UTG1 and 2 others call.
Flop ($100): Jd 9c 4c
H bets $70, only V calls
Turn ($240): Js
H checks, V checks
River ($240): 3d
H bets $100, V folds
Nothing too interesting but I’m interested to analyze a few things here as this spot (top card pairing on turn and we holding an overpair) comes up often:
1) Pretty standard check OTT? Does anyone ever bet here?
2) Once we check, it’s so obvious we never have trip Js here. What would we do if V bet here? I really expected him to bet turn once I checked since it was such a good card for him and bad for mine, yet he checked. How do we decide against which opponents to x/c and x/f? Holding the Ac is worse for our hand.
3) Once he checked back turn, I was confident he had a FD or SD (since I doubt he would call a flop cbet with a worse pair second to act vs a snug UTG PFR). Should we check river to induce a bluff if we’re certain a bet never gets called?
4) Should we x/f a club river? I know it sounds too tight but based on history hand, it seems difficult to get value from these MUBSY players.
I bet the turn for sure. You can still get value from lower pairs and you want to charge any draws. And since we have the Ac, I would probably b/f the river if the third club came.
This guys' a ridiculous nit. Just realize that we're making most of our money bluffing him, not with thin value.
Check/fold the turn. He called a significant flop bet 4-ways. Had it been heads up you could continue on this turn, but 4-ways Jx is just too much of his range.
Unless he thinks you’re bluffing it’s highly unlikely that he will call 3 streets of value with a hand worse than yours on that board , I think you played the hand fine. Usually people post on here when they make a mistake, cause I see no real major mistakes, the questions you’re asking all player dependant so you would probably know the best answer. I wouldn’t say we obviously don’t have trips, if opponent is tight and doesn’t have a J he will fold everything, by checking you can trick him into thinking you’re weak and that maybe he can steal the pot.