Hero: AQ. $250 stack. Been playing very aggressively (mostly preflop, then cbet stuff, but table was full of men of older age that most certainty perceived me as a young aggressive player).

V: $200 stack. Plays fairly straightforward, seems to rarely bluff, however, I have seen him overplay a few hands. For instance, in a pot he raised w/ QQ on a A 9 3 type flop and dryish blanks on T and R, he bet 2 streets into a super tight player.

Preflop: 3 limps to Hero in cutoff raises to $12. One limper calls and V calls (in MP).
Flop (Pot = $39): AT8. Check, V insta bets $35, Hero calls, limper folds.
Turn (Pot = $109): T. V thinks for a few seconds, then bets $50. Hero?

We need to be good here about 40% of the time to make a profitable call because he is going to get the river often too.

So without him having a good read on you (station) or you having a good read on him (agro) were not usually good here.

Feels like you were sized into a guess; if you think that was a coincidence then I'm going with it but would have preferred raising flop smallish to leave him with a PSB.

I don't expect to see Tx here like ever when he donks the flop for pot. His value hands are basically all boats, or possibly a weirdly played AJ+. I'm calling turn to make a decision on the river.

Keep calling. If the guy is raising with QQ on an Axx board, then he clearly has no idea what he's doing.

How did you calculate that 40% or is it more anecdotal?

So what type of range are we putting V on here? A10 and 88 seem like the only realistic hands we lose to here. Others A8 and AJ type hand? I don't feel this V would donk w/ 9J type hand. I feel he had a made hand like Ax or something bigger, but issue is, given my aggression preflop, I am in the high part of my range.

I expect him to bet the river for ~$75, so we're calling $125 to win current pot + river bet.

Against this guy, given the QQ hand history, we can't fold. I'd call and hope he bets less than all in on the river. But I'd call any river bet at that point

The smaller bet on the turn is a tell that he probably just has TP like you do. The T counterfeits his A8 hand. I think we're good here often enough to call the turn and see a river. Probably not folding the river.

So consensus seems like call and likely call most rivers. Tx for input everyone.

Yeah I feel like a T would most likely check to you. His small bets are weak. Call down imo

With 3 limpers ahead you got to open-bet preflop for at least $25.
On the flop you don't check your TPTK, you bet it in such a way to get a call if possible. From this point on you want take the hand to the showdown if you still have customers and if you can. You still got 5 more outs. I don't think villain's got a T because to continue after the flop he's got to have at least an Ace or some naked draw, unless he's an idiot. Maybe he's not by your description. It's very hard for us to come up with the correct play for a situation if we are not involved. You probably know better what's going on.

Fold flop if you're going to think about folding the second best card in the deck for you to a half pot bet.

But seriously, don't fold at any point in this hand. Based on the hand history I'm probably calling turn expecting a river bet and jamming over the top.

Without the hand history this is a standard call-down, IMO, with the river being kind of gross if he had jammed. With the hand history you can feel better about it.

Going to write this before reading spoiler. Based on V committing to QQ in hand before, I guess its a call and *probably call any bet on river. If the hand started as $200 eff, there is only one bet left, so calling $50 here is close to committing to stacking off without more reads than what youve shared. Im going to add that something tells me you shared the QQ on A high board hh because you are justifying the call and he shows up with a boat or a strange 10. Based on info, I say call, but this could also be an easy laydown with many Vs at 1/2. I guess he shows up with a 10 here sometimes when their getting sick of you betting them off all of their hands so recent history and your image matters.

I might ship over $50 river. Thats never a 10.

Way over thinking it buddy. I shared that hand bc I thought it was the most telling (betting 2 streets in raised pot into an obvious nit factory). Wasn't at table terribly long.

Villan donked the flop, this is a weak A or rando draw like 90%. this is a snap call turn, and on river im snap calling or betting if checked to

Also he has already shown a propensity to WAY overplay his made hands in that QQ hand.

All in OTR, ainec.

Heh, guess I was :/