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Old 11-20-2018, 12:52 PM   #1
LovePocket10's
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Decision in $1/3

V1(BB)-($250ish) Old Middle Eatern Man - Tight reg who plays premium hands only, seems to only plays tons of hours in hopes to hit bad beat jackpot. Wealthy but Nitty. At the casino every time I am there.

V2 (CO) - ($180ish) OWW - Really fishy, seems to play face up.

Hero (B) -($220) YWM - Just Moved to this table, probably 10 hands in.

Hero sees 4 limps in front and decides to limp with Ad2d.(I know, 1st Mistake)

SB completes and V1 BB checks.

Flop ($21) 9d8h7d

Checks to V2 who makes it $20, she will do this TP or worse from previous hands.

Hero makes the call.

SB folds and V1 CRAI to $100 from the BB. (He HAS to have a monster)

Fold back to V2 who then flats the $100. (Now I'm confused)

The pot is now at $241 pending my action, drawing to the nuts.

Hero??
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:01 PM   #2
gobbledygeek
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Preflop is completely standard and anything else with these stack sizes is pretty horrible, imo.

Initial flop call is very dicey. Flush draw is obvious, plus 4 of our outs put a super scary 4-to-a-straight on board, so our IO are not good. Plus we're only getting 2:1. Plus someone behind us can do exactly what happened. Start taking into account the endgame rake, and it's probably a fold. One of the reasons I always PSB+ my flopped monsters on drawy boards is because no one ever folds a draw on the flop.

After all the action, it's more a math question. There's ~$240 in the pot (closer to ~$230 if you want to start accounting for rake which you really should do), and we're being asked to call $80, so we're getting about 3:1, which means we're falling short about 1 bet and will need to make up $80+ on later streets if we hit. We'll only have about $120 left (so we're making very little profit if all goes well unless both opponents call our shove when we hit), but pot will be huge and it'll be unlikely anyone can fold if we hit. But sometimes we'll hit and still lose (if someone has a set). And sometimes someone has some of our outs. It's probably a fairly marginal spot at this point, and I would guess that overall a fold is best.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:02 PM   #3
mikko
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Stuff it in and party, or fold.

Should be about break even with jam. Folding is fine but boring
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:15 PM   #4
Calldown88
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Good rule of thumb is to never fold nfd on the flop barring extreme exceptions. You'll call flop & the turn will check through fairly often. Implied odds are not great, sure, but when you hit you need to make very little/can keep your sizing smaller.

I don't mind the limp in this spot but I'm folding this pre a good chunk of the time.
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:26 PM   #5
gobbledygeek
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Re: Decision in $1/3

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Originally Posted by Calldown88 View Post
but I'm folding this pre a good chunk of the time.
You're folding Axs on the Button after 4 limps?

GmyNit-Of-The-Monthwinstreak(27monthsstraight)isinseriousjeopard yG
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:55 PM   #6
R2DreaM
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Re: Decision in $1/3

All options are open. It's very similar EV either way. V2 absolutely can't fold to a shove, V1 is basically always calling.

Running some range calcs, it's hard to see you getting better than 33% equity in a 3 way here. If they both have a straight then it's possible (but still you're only about 36%). But if one of them is drawing to the same flush, or they at least hold 1-2 hearts combined, it quickly brings you below 33%. And if one of them has a set you are down in the 20% range.

So yeah, it's almost never a profitable situation for you to be calling or shoving here. If one of them has a straight your equity in a 3 way is never better than 37%, and can be as low as 19%. Then you factor in rake. This is just a pure gamble spot where you are probably on average below 30% chance to triple up. You have 0 fold equity.
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Old 11-20-2018, 09:23 PM   #7
FightingFish
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Pre and flop seem fine. Once v2 also flats FE is now 0% and so we’ll be gambling if we get it in, and calling this flop raise is committing us. That is if V1 is all in (I thought he had 250?) and V2 only has 80 left..
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Old 11-20-2018, 11:27 PM   #8
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by LovePocket10's View Post
Hero sees 4 limps in front and decides to limp with Ad2d.(I know, 1st Mistake)
Why is this a mistake?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calldown88 View Post
I don't mind the limp in this spot but I'm folding this pre a good chunk of the time.
This is truly terrible. Beyond terrible really. I mean, sure if you hate money then this is a fold.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:10 AM   #9
jdr0317
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by LovePocket10's View Post
V1(BB)-($250ish) Old Middle Eatern Man - Tight reg who plays premium hands only, seems to only plays tons of hours in hopes to hit bad beat jackpot. Wealthy but Nitty. At the casino every time I am there.

V2 (CO) - ($180ish) OWW - Really fishy, seems to play face up.

Hero (B) -($220) YWM - Just Moved to this table, probably 10 hands in.

Hero sees 4 limps in front and decides to limp with Ad2d.(I know, 1st Mistake)

SB completes and V1 BB checks.

Flop ($21) 9d8h7d

Checks to V2 who makes it $20, she will do this TP or worse from previous hands.

Hero makes the call.

SB folds and V1 CRAI to $100 from the BB. (He HAS to have a monster)

Fold back to V2 who then flats the $100. (Now I'm confused)

The pot is now at $241 pending my action, drawing to the nuts.

Hero??
I actually like the limp pre. Deeper I'd want to see a raise.

Now, it's just a math problem. The last $120 is going in 100% here, because if you call, turn blanks and he goes all in and she calls for less, there's 520 and you'd risk 120 to chase it. At that price you'll be getting direct odds to draw. Let's assume this guy is gonna call off if you hit turn too. So now we price it out.

You have a (38/47)*(37/46) chance of NOT hitting your nut flush. Or about 65%. And let's add a fudge factor for the very rare times you hit and still lose, call it 66%

So 66% of the time you are gonna lose $200. 34% of the time you're gonna win $441. That's a value of $17.94. So you probably have to hold your nose and call

Also sometimes the lady will fold turn and bail you out from having to chase.

Let's go over some other scenarios. There's a 66% chance you don't win. A 19% chance you get there and don't get his $120 though, so you end up just +321

.15*441 - .19*321 -.66*200 = -$4.86

Now calling loses money.
Basically it's not going to be a huge money play either way. Just don't jam all in. That's pointless.
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Old 11-21-2018, 08:19 AM   #10
robiNNNNN
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calldown88 View Post
Good rule of thumb is to never fold nfd on the flop barring extreme exceptions. You'll call flop & the turn will check through fairly often. Implied odds are not great, sure, but when you hit you need to make very little/can keep your sizing smaller.

I don't mind the limp in this spot but I'm folding this pre a good chunk of the time.
Fold this juicy A2dd after 4 limps?

Hit dat flush multi way and take stacks home.

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Old 11-21-2018, 06:15 PM   #11
LovePocket10's
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Thanks for the feedback guys.

I thought about it for a while and in the end decided to go for it and shoved about $180 knowing I was behind at least one person. My mind kept telling me how mad I was gonna be when I folded and a diamond came up on the run out.

V1 snap called, and to my surprise V2 folded with $80 behind.

V1 turned over 10s6c for the flopped straight, and no diamonds showed up.

I guess me saying limping Ad2d was my 1st mistake was results oriented, because V1 100% folds that holding to any raise.
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Old 11-21-2018, 06:53 PM   #12
gobbledygeek
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Re: Decision in $1/3

As mentioned above, shoving makes little sense because it's highly unlikely you're going to get both opponents to fold with this little behind and to this action (and it's even really surprising you got one of them to fold). All it does is cost you extra money when you whiff (which you'll do twice as often as not) and prevent you from getting a free card on the turn (which admittedly won't happen very often, but it will once and a while).

FWIW, folding isn't horrible preflop if you're going to make some fairly massive mistakes postflop. The first flop call is somewhat suspect (in spite of what others may say, imo), and the shove is by *far* the worst of the the ending plays you can make. It's possible Axs (even in position) isn't profitable for you if this is your standard postflop play (not trying to be a jerk, just saying that the profitability of a speculative hand is largely dependent on your skill edge over your opponents and it's likely you don't have any... yet).

GgoodluckG
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Old 11-21-2018, 08:37 PM   #13
mikko
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
As mentioned above, shoving makes little sense because it's highly unlikely you're going to get both opponents to fold with this little behind and to this action (and it's even really surprising you got one of them to fold). All it does is cost you extra money when you whiff (which you'll do twice as often as not) and prevent you from getting a free card on the turn (which admittedly won't happen very often, but it will once and a while).

FWIW, folding isn't horrible preflop if you're going to make some fairly massive mistakes postflop. The first flop call is somewhat suspect (in spite of what others may say, imo), and the shove is by *far* the worst of the the ending plays you can make. It's possible Axs (even in position) isn't profitable for you if this is your standard postflop play (not trying to be a jerk, just saying that the profitability of a speculative hand is largely dependent on your skill edge over your opponents and it's likely you don't have any... yet).

GgoodluckG
So making -EV call on turn is better than jamming on flop?

When we jam on flop. We have some semblance of fold equity. Even if it is only 1%. Plus it stops us from making larger mistake on turn by calling turn jam. Because we won't get proper odds.

There is very little difference between calling and jamming flop. Jamming flop has all sort of meta game benefits in future. Taking passive route will not help us get paid off in future.

If your plan is fold to Turn Jam. It is likely larger mistake to call flop, than jam flop. But not gonna run calcs, because it is close and there is no way to do it at table.
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Old 11-22-2018, 10:27 AM   #14
jdr0317
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Re: Decision in $1/3

I just think given player description, he shows up with JT like 16/33 times, T6 16/33 times, and the other type he has 65dd.
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Old 11-22-2018, 12:10 PM   #15
Ragequit99
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
You're folding Axs on the Button after 4 limps?

GmyNit-Of-The-Monthwinstreak(27monthsstraight)isinseriousjeopard yG
You're just going to have to try harder GG
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Old 11-23-2018, 01:57 AM   #16
Nozsr
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Re: Decision in $1/3

I don't play often enough to fold any Axs after four limps.

Why even go to the card room if we are going to do that?

And I can be even nittier than GG when I am card dead.
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Old 11-23-2018, 02:47 AM   #17
thedude404
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Re: Decision in $1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by LovePocket10's View Post
Thanks for the feedback guys.

I thought about it for a while and in the end decided to go for it and shoved about $180 knowing I was behind at least one person. My mind kept telling me how mad I was gonna be when I folded and a diamond came up on the run out.

V1 snap called, and to my surprise V2 folded with $80 behind.

V1 turned over 10s6c for the flopped straight, and no diamonds showed up.

I guess me saying limping Ad2d was my 1st mistake was results oriented, because V1 100% folds that holding to any raise.
Very interesting hand. Havent read all the replies, but this reminds me of a hand I had the other night playing 1/2. My memory is a little foggy but like yourself, I had a flush draw on the flop in late position. My holding cards were 36s, which obviously is polar opposite of your situation. After the flop UTG leads out and bets down to $6, MP raises to $15, I flat the $15 thinking awesome UTG will just call. Then UTG re-raises to $75 and then MP FLATS. I'm thinking ok obviously I know that UTG has a made hand like a set, but what in the hell does MP have? I convinced myself that he HAD to have a high end flush draw, and folded with I think around $220-$240 in the pot and I needed another $60 to call the $75. It's unfortunate that I dont remember the pre-flop action to create a better story, but UTG or MP had to have raised pre to create that pot size.

Anyway, turns out UTG had a set, I talked to MP later and he said he had top pair on flop, which I believed. I would have gotten my flush on the turn. Still not sure I made the correct fold in my spot, but thought I'd post my hand which is uncannily similar to your spot (minus the possibilities for a straight).

Last edited by thedude404; 11-23-2018 at 02:56 AM.
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