Quote:
Originally Posted by LovePocket10's
V1(BB)-($250ish) Old Middle Eatern Man - Tight reg who plays premium hands only, seems to only plays tons of hours in hopes to hit bad beat jackpot. Wealthy but Nitty. At the casino every time I am there.
V2 (CO) - ($180ish) OWW - Really fishy, seems to play face up.
Hero (B) -($220) YWM - Just Moved to this table, probably 10 hands in.
Hero sees 4 limps in front and decides to limp with Ad2d.(I know, 1st Mistake)
SB completes and V1 BB checks.
Flop ($21) 9d8h7d
Checks to V2 who makes it $20, she will do this TP or worse from previous hands.
Hero makes the call.
SB folds and V1 CRAI to $100 from the BB. (He HAS to have a monster)
Fold back to V2 who then flats the $100. (Now I'm confused)
The pot is now at $241 pending my action, drawing to the nuts.
Hero??
I actually like the limp pre. Deeper I'd want to see a raise.
Now, it's just a math problem. The last $120 is going in 100% here, because if you call, turn blanks and he goes all in and she calls for less, there's 520 and you'd risk 120 to chase it. At that price you'll be getting direct odds to draw. Let's assume this guy is gonna call off if you hit turn too. So now we price it out.
You have a (38/47)*(37/46) chance of NOT hitting your nut flush. Or about 65%. And let's add a fudge factor for the very rare times you hit and still lose, call it 66%
So 66% of the time you are gonna lose $200. 34% of the time you're gonna win $441. That's a value of $17.94. So you probably have to hold your nose and call
Also sometimes the lady will fold turn and bail you out from having to chase.
Let's go over some other scenarios. There's a 66% chance you don't win. A 19% chance you get there and don't get his $120 though, so you end up just +321
.15*441 - .19*321 -.66*200 = -$4.86
Now calling loses money.
Basically it's not going to be a huge money play either way. Just don't jam all in. That's pointless.