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Old 05-15-2016, 10:03 AM   #1
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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Critique bet sizing please

Friday night. $1/3 nlhe.

Hero is MAWG. Looks like Santa or Jerry Garcia.

Main villain is 35ish Middle Eastern. Seems like a decent player. Earlier folded Ak to my large 3 bet preflop. (I had AQ.)

Villain is in BB.

Utg limps. Hero $20 with KK. Hero is UTG +1.

One caller in MP. SB calls. BB Calls. Utg folds.

Pot: $77

Flop Ac Ks 5h.

Check to H. Bets $55.

Fold. Fold. V calls.

Turn 9d.

Pot $187.

H: $115. Calls

Pot $417.

River 8c

H bets $260. I left exactly $200 behind.

Thoughts on these sizings. I generally don't bet so large on the flop but I knew at least one person had to have hit the A and would call.

On the river I kind of feel like I am only getting called by the top of villlain's range and wasn't going to get called by AQ or AJ.

V tanked for about 20 seconds before calling.

So maybe it was the right size. But when I saw his hand i was shocked to not get the extra $200 in value.

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Old 05-15-2016, 10:06 AM   #2
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Eff stacks were about $650. V had me covered. Can't edit OP.

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Old 05-15-2016, 10:17 AM   #3
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Seems fine if you think villain can find a fold button with solid holdings. A larger bet on the turn to $150 sets up a river shove.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:20 AM   #4
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

All the sizes look about right to me.

I might have gone just a little smaller pre - but you got 3 callers and you certainly wouldnt want more.

55 into 77 with the Ax seems right. Maybe a tad more, a good Ax prolly isn't folding.

OTT you took your foot off the gas a little. Maybe it's time to see if you can end up with all the chips in with a premium hand. I think you have 550 back at this point. Pot is 187. What about 150/400?
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:37 AM   #5
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Critique bet sizing please

Seems ok but I think vs a player with a fold btn we really have to decide what part of his range we are targeting on a flop like this. Did you show the AQ when he folded AK to your 3!?

If not I really wouldn't expect to get 3 streets from Ax here and losing one bet to AQ is probably worth going for stacks vs the upper part of his range.

So I'd prob target the 3 combos AK and 3 combos 55. 140 ish turn shove river.

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 05-15-2016 at 10:53 AM.
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Old 05-15-2016, 11:30 AM   #6
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Agree with cAmmAndo. You want to be looking to set up getting stacks in by the river. $140 on the turn.
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Old 05-15-2016, 11:35 AM   #7
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Seems ok but I think vs a player with a fold btn we really have to decide what part of his range we are targeting on a flop like this. Did you show the AQ when he folded AK to your 3!?

If not I really wouldn't expect to get 3 streets from Ax here and losing one bet to AQ is probably worth going for stacks vs the upper part of his range.

So I'd prob target the 3 combos AK and 3 combos 55. 140 ish turn shove river.
Agree with cAmmAndo. You want to be setting up going for stacks by the river. Harrington showed years ago that unless there are exceptional circumstances, you are going to get more money long term by going for stacks.
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Old 05-15-2016, 12:45 PM   #8
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Arrrrr in otr. A little bigger otr.

Also, decent players fold AK to single 3 bets?
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Old 05-15-2016, 01:28 PM   #9
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

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Arrrrr in otr. A little bigger otr.

Also, decent players fold AK to single 3 bets?

To Santa Claus
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Old 05-15-2016, 01:28 PM   #10
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Flop looks good. I $45-60 there.

Turn... The sizing looks good, but would be great if he'd have called a slightly bigger bet. I $100-150+ there.

River... I'm shoving here almost always.

Just play with his calling frequency to see where the maximum EV is for the bet. (I'll simplify and assume H is always good.)

River Bet ----- V Call % ----- EV of river bet
100 ----- 95% ----- $95

150 ----- 80% ----- $120

200 ----- 75% ----- $150

250 ----- 70% ----- $175

300 ----- 65% ----- $195

350 ----- 60% ----- $210

400 ----- 55% ----- $220

460 ----- 50% ----- $253
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Old 05-15-2016, 01:33 PM   #11
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Agree with others. Not the easiest hand in the world to get stacks in given the single raised pot and lack of raising on any street, but $150 OTT at least gives you a chance to shove a reasonable slightly less than PSB on the river.
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Old 05-15-2016, 02:15 PM   #12
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post

On the river I kind of feel like I am only getting called by the top of villlain's range and wasn't going to get called by AQ or AJ.
GRUNCH: I agree with you here, but since it's not terribly likely AQ or AJ will call a decent river bet, you're basically just hoping he has 2pair or better for him to call with in which case you should be betting more on the river and hoping he just can't fold an AK/smaller set or so on. If he doesn't have this, he probably won't call much anyway, and if you're somehow beat then you're obviously losing all your money anyway.

I would honestly consider overbet shoving the river. You could also have bet more on the turn to avoid the overbet on the river. I like the sizing otherwise, but more on the turn would probably be better.
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Old 05-15-2016, 05:25 PM   #13
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

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Originally Posted by andees10 View Post
Arrrrr in otr. A little bigger otr.

Also, decent players fold AK to single 3 bets?
He raised. He was $600+ deep. A third player flatted. He said he was afraid that player would reshove. I said decent. It means he isn't drooling down the front of his shirt.



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Old 05-15-2016, 05:26 PM   #14
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Seems ok but I think vs a player with a fold btn we really have to decide what part of his range we are targeting on a flop like this. Did you show the AQ when he folded AK to your 3!?

If not I really wouldn't expect to get 3 streets from Ax here and losing one bet to AQ is probably worth going for stacks vs the upper part of his range.

So I'd prob target the 3 combos AK and 3 combos 55. 140 ish turn shove river.
No. I did not show.

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Old 05-15-2016, 06:40 PM   #15
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

It's a pretty strong line to be an early position raiser and to c-bet in a multi-way pot.

I play with a tight image. When I have this sort of hand this deep, I understand that to play for stacks, I usually need the cooperation from my opponent in the form of a raise somewhere along the way. My decision is usually between making bigger bets that probably win a big chunk but not all of his stack or smaller bets that are more inviting to a raise that will let me play for stacks. This is highly dependent on table image and opponent tendencies.

You've played it like you have AA/KK/AK. I don't think villain is justified in raising at any point if he flopped bottom set.
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Old 05-15-2016, 08:49 PM   #16
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

I agree with bigger slightly bigger sizing otf and ott to set up a river shove. Board is just so bone dry I don't think villain is calling w/ 2p+ otf and ott to fold at any point.
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Old 05-16-2016, 09:14 AM   #17
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Thanks for the replies.

V had AK. Probably sprained his arm patting himself on the back for not losing more. LOL.
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Old 05-16-2016, 07:54 PM   #18
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

i don't think i've ever not just shoved when there is a psb-ish left and i know i'm good
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:12 AM   #19
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

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i don't think i've ever not just shoved when there is a psb-ish left and i know i'm good
I certainly knew I was good. That wasn't the problem. I was trying to get the best value from the entirety of his range.

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Old 05-17-2016, 10:23 AM   #20
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

I think if you go just a little bigger on flop and turn you can set up a river shove without looking too strong.

You start out w/ $650 so $630 left on the flop, and pot is $77. $75 on flop, and if called in one spot there's $227 in the pot. $175 on turn and one caller, you'll go to the river with $577 in the pot, and only $380 behind, setting up an easy river shove.

Big difference here is the larger flop bet, $75 v. $55. However, you're in a 4-way pot on the flop, and can expect to be looked up by any ace, so I don't think the difference in sizing is huge. $75 is a bit harder to call on the flop for a hand like QJ/QT that just has a gutshot and runner-runner flush draw, but that's not where most of your value will come from here anyway since those hand often fold to $55 too.
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:36 AM   #21
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
I certainly knew I was good. That wasn't the problem. I was trying to get the best value from the entirety of his range.

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i'm saying i don't bet half pot with the nuts when there's a psb left
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:09 PM   #22
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

You already know what my preflop comment / strategy / opinion of result is going to be.

From the looks of things, we started with a $650 stack (I'm assuming effective) and pot is $80 on the flop, so an SPR of ~8. Which means unless we think someone at the table is going to get out-of-line and raise a weak looking bet, we can easily play for stacks with three ~3/4 PSBs (assuming HU after the flop). So that's what I'd do.

SPR basically tells you the exact bet sizing to get in stacks by the river; it's as easy as memorizing an odds table.

So I'd bet a smidge more on the flop, a lot more on the turn, which will setup a trivial 3/4 PSB for the river. Even as played, the default line with a ~nuttish hand should always be to shove the river (we should have very good reason to do otherwise, imo), and even though that would be a slight overbet due to our slightly poor flop sizing / extremely poor turn sizing, that's still what I'd do.

GimoG
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:15 PM   #23
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
I was trying to get the best value from the entirety of his range.
When we have a nuttish hand, we should always just hope for the best and hope our opponent has a very good hand. This way we get max value from his very good hands. He could also still make a mistake with the slightly mediocre part of his range and pay off. And of course with poor part of his range he's not paying off regardless (and even still could perhaps bluff that off on an earlier street).

I would be more concerned about getting value vs his entire range when I had a much weaker holding (such as AQ here) by making smaller bets / perhaps even checking a street.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:20 PM   #24
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

I also think a pretty good argument could be made that the most EV bet size on the flop is a PSB here. Underpairs (and air) are probably done with the hand, except those that might get suspicious as to "why so much?" on this drawless board. Ax hands are highly unlikey to fold to a single bet (again, "why would AK bet so much here?"), and yet they could definitely fold to future street bets, so we maximize value by betting big on the flop.

The exception would be when against bluffy/aggro opponents who could see weak bets as cbets with air / TT / Ax hands that we could release / etc., but that is less likely to play out in a multiway pot, plus most of our opponents probably ain't like this.

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Old 05-19-2016, 01:03 AM   #25
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Re: Critique bet sizing please

I like your sizing. 2/3 pot OTF might get called by AXs where a bigger bet loses them (depends on players and culture of game really). OTT I think we target AJ+. River sizing is good if we are again targeting the same range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
Friday night. $1/3 nlhe.
On the river I kind of feel like I am only getting called by the top of villlain's range and wasn't going to get called by AQ or AJ.
If this is true then shove River obv.
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