Ok ok, let’s try this again with a bit more explanation.
Often when discussing hands, people talk a Pot Commitment. Bad players will say “There’s so much money in the pot, and I’ve already put in 50%, 60%, 80% of my stack” so they feel pot committed. However, this is exactly what pot commitment is not: Having to call just because the pot is large or having to call because we do not have a lot of money left in our stack. Having to call because our villain does not have a lot of money left in their stack. In a cash game, where you can always rebuy, can always top off your stack to the max, and always have the option to start and stop playing at any point, you are never committed to any pot solely for any of the reasons stated above.
What pot commitment is: Calling a bet because when we compare the range of hands that our villain would play in a certain way against our hand, and given the price that we are being laid by the pot, we have a positive expectation when we call the bet. Note this has
nothing to do with how much money we have in our stack, and has nothing to do with how much money we have already invested into the pot.
Let’s take a look at an example:
Hand 1: Villain has 100bb, we cover.
Villain raises to 5bb. Hero calls with 66.
Flop (10bb): AK6r.
Villain bets 10bb. Hero calls 10bb.
Turn (30bb): Ax
Villain bets 30bb. Hero calls 30bb.
River (90bb): 3x
Villain shoves 55bb. Hero?
“Common sense” here says that we are committed, we have invested half of our stack, we are getting 2.63:1 on our money from the pot, and we have a
full house so we should call. However, in order to evaluate this situation we need to know the range of the villain in question. If Villains post flop continuing range (given the line that he has taken) is KK+, AQ+ then yes we are committed.
Hands we lose to: 1 x AA, 3 x KK, 6 x AK. Hands we beat: 8 x AQ. 10:8 losses to wins. Price we are getting from the pot: 2.63:1. Long term expectation: Eventual pot of 200bb * (8 / 18) – 55bb investment = +33.8bb expectation. In this case we should call.
How about when villain is checking his hold cards again on the river before he shoves, and he accidentally flashes an Ace to us.
Hands we lose to: 1x AA, 6 x AK. Hands we beat: 8x AQ. 7:8 losses to win. Without even going through the math we know that we can profitably call here as he has less hands in his range that we lose to, and still all of the hands that we beat.
How about the final case, when villain accidentally flashes a K to us.
Hands we lose to: 3x KK, 6 x AK. Hands we beat: 0! Again, without even doing any math we see that we can never be profitable here. There is no part of his range that we beat, as a result we should fold regardless of how much money is in the pot, or how much more we need to invest.
What we’ve seen here is that we have the same situation, we have the same stack size, the same cards, the same pot size, the same bet to call, the same board, but yet we are “committed” to the hand in 2 of the 3 cases, and we are not committed in the 3rd case. What we have also seen is that at no point have I discussed how much we have in our stack, but only what we have to call. It does not matter if we have invested 35% of our stack, 3.5% of our stack, or .01% of our stack.
Let’s look at another common situation:
Brand new table, effective stacks are 100bb. Everyone at the table is your standard rec villain. They all play too loose pre flop, raise a tight range, and only 3bet with QQ+ and AK. They will 5bet shove Aces and
Aces only.
You raise pre flop with KK to 5bb, you get 4 callers and the SB comes out and 3bets to 20bb. You 4bet to 65bb, he shoves, and you call for 35bb because I have Kings and we have 100bb effective stacks, and therefore we feel pot committed.
Even if he literally flips his AA face up shows them to you before you act, you still have to call. There is 185bb in the pot, you have to call 35bb. You have an expectation (suit excluded) of 18.054% in the pot. The pot ignoring rake will be 220bb. You return on your investment is 39.71bb or a +4.71bb return. In this case it is correct to feel this way.
What happens if we change the situation just a bit?
You raise pre flop with KK to 5bb, you get 2 callers and the SB comes out and 3bets to 20bb. You 4bet to 50bb, he shoves, and you call for 50bb because I have Kings and we have 100bb effective stacks, and therefore we feel pot committed. How do we fare in this situation? The pot will have 210bb, we have the same expectation of 18.054%, a return or 37.91bb, but this time it has a negative return of -12.09bb. In this case it would be incorrect to feel commited to the pot.
Being pot commited is only about
:
1) What is our expectation with our hand vs their range
2) What is the price that we are being laid in the pot
Bonus Homework (ignore rake and tip):
A short stack opens for 5bb, 7 people call. You have a read that he opens light, and folds easy to 3bets. You 3bet him to 40bb as a steal from the big blind with 7
2
. V shoves and everyone else folds.
If V flips up his hand face up and shows you A
K
, what is the largest stack size he can have that will show you a positive expectation upon calling? I.e. what is the largest stack size he can shove with that we should feel 'commited'?
If V flips one of his cards up, and it is the A
, and the second is
NOT an Ace, what is the largest stack size you can call and show a
guaranteed positive expectation?
If V flips up both of his cards, and shows us A
A
, what is the the maximum stack size that V can have that we can call with a positive expectation?
If you answer any of these in the thread, put them in a spoiler please.