I like this point. I like to say I have definately used this against nonthinking players more than thinking players though. I have done this alot on rivers on dry boards with top pair type hands. Sometimes it's very obvious from tendencies and if you have an active image at all that they will station you down. Often you can get this action by doing something like checking back top pair heads up on certain flops. for example q65 k25 79a type boards. If there is a possible flush draw that turns or is flopped often you will get looked up very light. I have experienced many active lose players who cannot lay down their hands and with something like jj,1010 or second pair good kicker is very face up when they snap call you on the turn. This is an invitation to me to bet at least potsize or more on alot of river cards with as little as top pair garbage kicker.

great cotm, definitely will be looking for spots like this

cliffs: just build the pot when you hit the nuts, guys

Awesome topic. I often used this concept but only with betting PSB usually.. now ill be looking for the spots to bet even BIGGER

I just used this in a 1/2 NL game... 910o on btn I limped for a 7 way pot
flop was 67J rainbow.. checked around.. turn Q.. checked to HJ who bets $12... me and him have a lil history and I know he will be willing to pay me off if I hit... I call.. everyone else folds.. river K.. I have 2nd nuts, no flush out... he checks.. I insta bet $60.. he angrily says how much is that !? I call... n then says how I sucked out on his 2 pair, I replied with yup.

So satifying.
But could I havebet even more?

I asked if he had top 2 on river he said no I already had it...

Usually anything more than $90 in these spots will get folds (because omg betting $100 is a whole stack and so much more than 90 lol)
I bet like 80 probably.

I've been overbetting with the nuts/near nuts for a while now to great success.

I got the idea one day when a 1/2 fish with sunglasses and an attitude was contemplating a big(!) 3/4 pot river bet and he said aloud "you would never bet that much of you had it! you'd bet smaller to get a call!" and then he called with top pair no kicker and was right. So an hour later I ended up smashing trips against his top pair no kicker and just shipped it in and he called.

The most recent example I had 54 on a Q5455 board and bet 15 -> 30 -> 250 all in and got snapped off by KQ. Ah the old 2.5x pot bet.

nice thread Pony, thought provoking stuff. Will definitely look to incorporate this into my game

nice thread, I'm now kicking myself for missing a good overbet spot last Saturday:

1/2 game at 3am everyone is deep (400+)

V1 (450) slightly winning reg (solid player, but still tends to make big mistakes), playing tighter than usual due to being on a downswing
V2 (550) loose passive fish
V3 (700) old loose guy, kinda stationary
Hero (1200) known as a winning player in this room, altough some players give me too much respect (including V1 and V3)

V2 limps UTG, hero raises from MP to 15 with 88, V1 calls from BTN , V3 calls from BB, V2 calls

Flop (~62) T 8 6
V2 checks, hero bets 50, V1 calls, V3 folds, V2 calls

Turn (~212) K
checks around

River (~212) T
V2 checks, hero bets 130, V1 snap-calls, V2 folds

Hero shows his full house, V1 sighs and says "you sucked out on me", shows AJ

I think this is more a case of his simply being at the top of his range. I think your sizing was fine in order to get value out of all the 10s in his range, which it sounds like he´d fold to an overbet. He sounds like he might lay down a bay flush to a monster bet on a paired board, too. (Yeah right, people fold 2card flushes at LLSNL...)

I wouldn´t kick yourself, I don´t think this was necessarily an overbet spot.

Then again, if you think about it, there isn´t a hand that he´s calling an overbet with that he´s not betting if checked to, so I think you may have missed a "head-asplode checkraise the river with a boat" spot.

Where you may have missed an overbet was on the flop there. Two stationy players on a FD board deep, I see no prob with betting 75 OTF.

My overbet hand for tonight:
2 limps to hero in LP with 33 hero limps. sb completes bb checks.
Flop (10) K83
Hero bets 17 mp calls
turn(44) T mp checks
Hero bets 60 - he's like never folding nfd and doesn't fold strong Kx because "ldo I'm young and have flush draw"
river 2(164) he checks Ship 200. Again either a strong K he isn't folding and will hero us or a flush draw that won't call anything. He literally laughed and said "why would you bet that much if you had a made hand; I call" KQo

Just getting stacks in, in limped pots npnp

Overbetting the pot on all 3 streets is really sexy. I've always held that a l/rr-c/r-c/r-c/r line is the ultimate pwnage, but this whole overbetting conversation makes me have some new goals.

Lol - if you ever accomplish this, be sure to ask security to escort you to your car.

I've c/r 3 streets before (brag, obv, but had nuts; would've been 5* with air) but I don't like l/rr in general, so my opportunities are really few.

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but this hand happened yesterday...

Hero, (400) in the SB with 5/6 diamonds.

Limps around, 8 to the flop.

2/3/10 rainbow

Villian I have no info on bets 10 (I put him on the 10), Villian 2 who is a mega fish sitting with 200 calls the 10 (he has A/2, A/3, or I am praying A/5 and the magic card 4 comes.)

Turn is a Kc, it checks through.

River is the 4d.

I just bomb out "all in."

First villian folds, 2nd villian insta calls and says "chop."

He shows A/5... LAWL.

"Yeah, probably. I guess you can't call that without the nu... oh.nm.nh.gg. rack pls."

Great post !
Would love some examples for overbet bluffing.
For example i like it when i steal from the button,and bb defends and check call on a two tone board (ex. T64tt) no matter if the flush completes i will overbet river if there is at least 1 overcard and i dont beat pair of tens.

I will only overbet bluff when I can read villain very well for second pair, and he is a moderate nit, and he is in check/call mode. I know he will call a 3/4 pot bet a lot of the time, but he won't hero call 1.5 pot ever, or certainly less than 10%. It is utterly dependent on a strong read that when he goes into check call mode for example having raised pf on a

KQ4 board. And I can read him very strongly for AQ when he check/calls flop, but on any non AKQ turn, he will fold to an overbet enough to make it profitable. He doesn't check flop with top pair or better, he doesn't open raise with TJ.

These scenarios require strong, strong reads and a weak tight opponent, who has a narrow opening range, and clearly spottable postflop betting patterns with certain hands. Sometimes you can simply barrel, but the turn overbet it powerful because you set up the fear in their heads of a huge river barrel, which will help generate folds.

A good spot could be your playing a reasonable tag or even weak tight. Your chaing a straight but the river puts 3 to a flush and now he checks. Perfect overbet spot.

Lets not try overbet bluffing. At least until we've got overbet value owning people down

Comments on this example...

Limpfest to hero in BB with K7o. Check.

Flop(6 players/$12): K72r.
Checks around. Balls.

Turn(6 players/$12): J.
Hero leads for $15, one caller with ~$125 behind.

River(Heads up/$42): T.
Hero bets $70, villain calls and tables JT for rivered two pair.

Conclusion...

I whiffed a check-raise otf, overbet pot ott, blasted it otr. Sure I got lucky that villain rivered two pair here but if he doesn't river two pair is he calling anything?

Villain had $125 behind and you put in an overbet that was not a shove? Sounds to me like you left value on the table. He's got to call $125 more than half as much as calls $70 there. (But I think I would have bet smaller and hope he calls with 1 pair or raises with 2 pair in that spot.)

I love this concept and I want to make a contribution to this thread (which is already very good--thanks for writing it LolPony), so here's a personal example of my own from a long time ago where I overbet the river with success:

I'm playing 1/2, effective stacks ~215, $5 straddle on.

2 limpers to me, I'm on the button with 86, I limp behind, blinds fold, straddle checks.

Flop (~$20) Q96

Checks to me, I bet 11, only the last (MP/LP) limper calls.

My read on this guy is that he's a pretty straightforward player and is playing his hand pretty honestly (i.e. he would have just bet out with a Q or a set, etc.).

Turn ($40) 8

Villain leads out 20, I call.

Even though I just turned 2 pair, the fact that he led into me made me highly suspicious. When he leads out, he's telling me the 8 helped him. Thinking through logically, there is no hand that could have been helped by this card that I am ahead of. I call because I put him on a big hand but I expect my 13 outs to be clean against everything but JT, which is at worst 1/16th of his range here (but I do think he has the straight a lot). He could also have turned 2 pair with Q8 or 98, but I think this is a lot less likely (I think sets are also less likely).

River ($79) A

V checks. Now I'm almost sure he doesn't have a bigger flush since he's straightforward and probably would keep betting if he did. My read on the turn was that my 2 pair was no good, so now he should have a hand with high absolute strength that my flush can beat (like a straight or 2 pair). So I figure it's time for a big bet. At first I think, "Maybe he'll call $60", but if he's calling $60 he's calling $70, right? And if he's calling $70, why not $80?

Well, you probably see where this is going: I shoved for ~180, more than twice the pot. He hesitates for 1 second (like he really wasn't expecting that big a bet) but then calls and shows JTo. I scoop a pot of about $440, having gotten 12:1 implied odds on my turn call.

Bump

Over the weekend I flop bottom 2 on a ace high board, lead out overbet 2x pot from bb. I fill up on the turn, check to tarp Mr. Nonbeliever.

Rver brick, I overbet SHHHHHHIIIIPPPP. He insta-snap calls and flips an ace, no kicker proudly before I could turn over my winner, and he is clueless.

Playing like an aggrotard comes with its benefits!

As an aside, overbet bluffing should be done against good players with too many floats. The preferred street for me is the turn. If we go with a 1.5x sizing, they will need to fold 3/5 of the time. You need to have enough overbets in there for value, ldo, and this should already be the case. Even if we only overbet 25% of the time as a bluff, we are printing money and very, very tough to play against. Hopefully they've seen us overbet for value, and now we have a tool to put the fear deep into them. Watch how often your cbets get thru now....as they will not want to face a 1.5x pot turn bet.

Glglgl

Always playing the nuts for stacks isn't optimal. Knowing when V has a second best hand is important. There are times when you have the nuts and that's great, but you know V is showing up with a hand like TP, and you need to size it low enough to get called. It's not your fault V has a very-far-behind second best hand. So I think you're leaving something out there by defaulting to shoving every nuts hand. But when V is calling or not and the amount doesn't matter, betting pot instead of shoving is leaving a ton out there. The examples are mirrors of a lot of hands I've played.

The KQcc example is a really good one. One thing to note is that, say the 7 wasn't otf, if it were JT3, i.e., the A is so much better than the 9 hitting ott. If the 9 hits, you probably need to size your betting traditionally, the board texture hasn't changed much and TP is still TP and is still only calling probably 2/3 PSBs. But when the A hits ott, the texture changes so much that it helps. Because high card on board changed, either V flopped TP and is now shutting down, so shoving isn't foregoing anything, he's not putting more in anyway. Or the A hit Vs hand, AK/AQ/AJ/AT/AA, and he's calling any amount. The A ott makes V's range inelastic, V really doesn't have a say in the matter.

In general, this is what DGI calls Prison Raping. And despite his current controversy, I feel that Prison Raping is the tool I have and use that other consistent winning regs don't.