Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
Mpethybridge,
A question about Equity Adjusted winnings. You said “more on that later” but I didn’t recall seeing more. I have a spread sheet that I use on individual hands that calculates and graphs EV in several ways on each street. I have an S-bucks, G-bucks (Range v. Hand), Modified G-bucks (Hand v. Range) calc. Since opponents hole cards aren’t always known, these methods (except vs. opponents range) have a problem as a variance smoother since whenever villain folds without showing we have no equity calc. (and this could be hands we sucked out).
Alternatively, using our hand against an opponent’s range obviously has the potential to be optimistic. Since you are advocating tracking an equity adjusted win rate, how do you recommend calculating this? Does using opponent’s actual hand when known and our estimation of his range when unknown make sense?
I’m interested in anything you have on this as I’ve only been looking at these numbers as a tool for judging play within a single hand only. I’d like to set it up as you’ve suggested in my HH tracking spreadsheet to tame the variance some if possible.
EDIT: OK I read this thing again and I see I glossed over item #4 in the Data Analysis section which pretty much answers my question.
For the first two years + I was out here, I was recording my all in ev for every all in (along with lots of other information). My system was to use the villain's actual hand, when known, and otherwise to credit the opponent with the maximum possible equity that could have wound up losing the hand. The exception, which I can only recall happening once, was when I shipped an overpair and turned a set. My opponent claimed I had two outed him, but I didn't believe him, so I didn't count it as a suck out, but gave him a flush draw or something.
Giving opponents who muck max possible equity gives you a worst case scenario. If you do the math and see that you have 73% equity on average when the money goes in (this was my actual number that stayed pretty rock steady) you can phrase that in your head as "at least 73%" with near absolute certainty that it's not a lower number.
That would become particularly relevant if you played a more aggro style that relied less on equity and more on FE when you got all in. If my number had been 48%, I'd REALLY have wanted to know that it was "at least 48%" because you really couldn't afford for it to be much lower.
I like your system for tracking equity. I'm not sure I would duplicate it, though, because of how much less useful the idea of an opponent's range is live as compared to online.
(Live, a villain's range is purely theoretical, and accidental. It is only ever your assessment of which hands he would take that line with. In their heads, most villains don't have a range. Rather, each hand, to them, is a unique event played optimally. As far as they are concerned, their range is only the exact two cards they are holding on this exact board.
Online, villains had actual ranges, that they intentionally constructed on an actual spreadsheet or whatever to be difficult to play against, and that you could deduce or derive empirically, which in turn allowed other deductions about the player)