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COTM: Off Table Analysis COTM: Off Table Analysis

09-04-2015 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
cAwannabookalastlongerbetGG?Am
Ha, I only place bets I know I'm a favourite in!

I'm going to put in a 10ish hour session this weekend, probably Sunday. I'm pretty sure I'll be able to do AA/KK and +30bbs, I'm going to attempt that and let you know next week if I've tapped out after one session.

GcluelessstatscollectingnoobG
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-04-2015 , 04:38 PM
Awesome job all around. So much gold here.

I've struggled with notation methods. So I need to figure out if one of the suggestions would work for me. Not sure about the audio, maybe, but customizing an app might work for me.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-04-2015 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
I'm a smoker too so there's that.

So I geeked out tonight and though I'd share here.

A while back I bought an app called list maker. It's kind of a database app but simplified. It's very powerful though. I've played around with it for hand history recording over the past year and this COTM inspired me to go back and stream line it. I think I have something that will work well for me.

It auto time stamps. I select Position, PF action, Hole Cards with a single tap each. Each of those gets entered into it's own field as do effective stacks. The board cards are just entered as text and the Action for each street gets entered in a notes field just like you would in note pad. I've added switches or check boxes to act as flags for >30BB, ISO plays, Steals and even a Red, Yellow, Green 3 Way "Tilt" selection flag.

Based on Spike's suggestion I've also added a voice memo field which can be recorded with one tap from inside the hand history entry screen for extended reads or whatever. This remains embedded in that HH record.

I can enter a hand as fast or faster than I can type it in note pad and have the benefit of an organized timestamped list of hands that can be exported and emailed as a CSV file so I can import it straight into the spreadsheet on my computer for the off the felt analysis.

Since the hole cards, position, PF action and flags for >30bb, ISO, Steal etc. are all separate fields they will import into excel as their own columns allowing me the sorting control that should make it unnecessary to copy and paste into multiple pages within the spreadsheet... I think.

I have a simplified version for collecting villains showdowns as I do still want to compile a more robust set of notes on my Regs. That's linked to a Villain file similar to what's available in Poker Journal.

So this week I Plan to start the data collection in earnest.

Whether I stick it out to be a 1%er will remain to be seen.

cAwannabookalastlongerbetGG?Am
Is this a iOS or android app? I found an iOS app called list maker with a red icon
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-04-2015 , 06:22 PM
I use an iOS app it's list master. It looks like it's on android as well but there's also an imposter looking one.

This is the one I use.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/list...333245688?mt=8

https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...stmaster&hl=en

It takes a little playing around to learn how it works but it's very flexible once you learn the features and options.
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09-04-2015 , 08:23 PM
Wow, 10 bucks for a list making app! Do you think it's worth it?
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-04-2015 , 08:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
Wow, 10 bucks for a list making app! Do you think it's worth it?
Stop being a nit. It only has to save you one bad preflop call and it's worth it.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-05-2015 , 02:37 PM
So I'm a software developer by trade, though not in mobile apps, and for a while I've had in the back of my mind an idea to write a hand tracking app with a user interface that allows for rapid hand entry. I don't think the coding would be hard for a good mobile app developer, but designing a good user interface would be, especially for a non-giant smartphone (say, a Samsung 4S).

It sounds like someone found the next best thing - an advanced app that can be customized for this purpose. Thinking about trying it out for myself...is there a way that customizations can be shared?

One other thought on using an app for hand tracking. I was thinking that you'd have two main entry screens, one for the hands and the other for the players. That way you can update the player info as you profile them, as they leave/arrive, change seats, big shifts in stack sizes, etc. So then for the HH, you just have to enter the cards and bets, and the app could match your hand against the updated V info to produce the full history. I guess the downside is you might spend time tracking V dynamics that you don't get in hand against. (but then it might improve your profiling ability by forcing you to practice).

Curious if you have tried something like that with the list app.

Also, I never thought of this before in the context of poker, but I agree with the Hawthorne effect applying here.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-05-2015 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
Mpethybridge,

A question about Equity Adjusted winnings. You said “more on that later” but I didn’t recall seeing more. I have a spread sheet that I use on individual hands that calculates and graphs EV in several ways on each street. I have an S-bucks, G-bucks (Range v. Hand), Modified G-bucks (Hand v. Range) calc. Since opponents hole cards aren’t always known, these methods (except vs. opponents range) have a problem as a variance smoother since whenever villain folds without showing we have no equity calc. (and this could be hands we sucked out).

Alternatively, using our hand against an opponent’s range obviously has the potential to be optimistic. Since you are advocating tracking an equity adjusted win rate, how do you recommend calculating this? Does using opponent’s actual hand when known and our estimation of his range when unknown make sense?

I’m interested in anything you have on this as I’ve only been looking at these numbers as a tool for judging play within a single hand only. I’d like to set it up as you’ve suggested in my HH tracking spreadsheet to tame the variance some if possible.

EDIT: OK I read this thing again and I see I glossed over item #4 in the Data Analysis section which pretty much answers my question.

For the first two years + I was out here, I was recording my all in ev for every all in (along with lots of other information). My system was to use the villain's actual hand, when known, and otherwise to credit the opponent with the maximum possible equity that could have wound up losing the hand. The exception, which I can only recall happening once, was when I shipped an overpair and turned a set. My opponent claimed I had two outed him, but I didn't believe him, so I didn't count it as a suck out, but gave him a flush draw or something.

Giving opponents who muck max possible equity gives you a worst case scenario. If you do the math and see that you have 73% equity on average when the money goes in (this was my actual number that stayed pretty rock steady) you can phrase that in your head as "at least 73%" with near absolute certainty that it's not a lower number.

That would become particularly relevant if you played a more aggro style that relied less on equity and more on FE when you got all in. If my number had been 48%, I'd REALLY have wanted to know that it was "at least 48%" because you really couldn't afford for it to be much lower.

I like your system for tracking equity. I'm not sure I would duplicate it, though, because of how much less useful the idea of an opponent's range is live as compared to online.

(Live, a villain's range is purely theoretical, and accidental. It is only ever your assessment of which hands he would take that line with. In their heads, most villains don't have a range. Rather, each hand, to them, is a unique event played optimally. As far as they are concerned, their range is only the exact two cards they are holding on this exact board.

Online, villains had actual ranges, that they intentionally constructed on an actual spreadsheet or whatever to be difficult to play against, and that you could deduce or derive empirically, which in turn allowed other deductions about the player)
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-05-2015 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adamjm
So I'm a software developer by trade, though not in mobile apps, and for a while I've had in the back of my mind an idea to write a hand tracking app with a user interface that allows for rapid hand entry. I don't think the coding would be hard for a good mobile app developer, but designing a good user interface would be, especially for a non-giant smartphone (say, a Samsung 4S).



It sounds like someone found the next best thing - an advanced app that can be customized for this purpose. Thinking about trying it out for myself...is there a way that customizations can be shared?



One other thought on using an app for hand tracking. I was thinking that you'd have two main entry screens, one for the hands and the other for the players. That way you can update the player info as you profile them, as they leave/arrive, change seats, big shifts in stack sizes, etc. So then for the HH, you just have to enter the cards and bets, and the app could match your hand against the updated V info to produce the full history. I guess the downside is you might spend time tracking V dynamics that you don't get in hand against. (but then it might improve your profiling ability by forcing you to practice).



Curious if you have tried something like that with the list app.



Also, I never thought of this before in the context of poker, but I agree with the Hawthorne effect applying here.

Is there a reverse Hawthorne effect? Cuz my first hr today has been a clinic of bad play. Lol.

On the list app I created separate lists for villain preflop action. I have then a separate villain profile list that I can summarize the villain pf hand data but they aren't @linked". You can use another list as a lookup but it just sticks that data in the text field you can't easily create a true relationship. If you're importing into excel obv you can do anything excell can do.

Problem with trying to track villains and hands is that you can only keep one list open at a time. I'm thinking of tracking villain hands in a separate database app that's not as powerful idatabase I think it's called. Mostly with that I'm looking for preflop ranges and sizing tells and notes on notable postflop spots. That's very much a secondary project.

In playing the player, miller suggested essentially stalking a single player and taking notes on him for like a month and then devising a strat to slaughter him. Mostly he suggested it as an exercise to help you think more about counter strategy. It sounded like fun but I think outside the scope of this thread.

On the subject of hh recording my session tracking app has a fairly sophisticated hand recorder. I don't use it enough to be proficient with it. But it doesn't export csv or bulk lists. Only single hands which have to be re transcribed. The "workflow" of that is actually decent. It does the math on pot and stacks, does card removal and only prompts for valid player actions as you cycle through the hand.

A super fast collection / entry system on smartphone with a companion database app would be the nuts tho.
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09-06-2015 , 07:37 PM
So I decided to start a PG&C for my Homework. cAmmAndo's Study Hall for the 1%
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-06-2015 , 10:29 PM
if your program works well I'd love to hear how to set it up. I think a good hand recorder would be somewhat revolutionary for LLSNL.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-08-2015 , 11:48 AM
Interested to see how Commando's homework goes, I'll have to sub to his thread.

Lol, I played a 11.5 hour session on Sunday (got in slightly more hours thanks to getting into a game that had gone over night). I only recorded AA/KK and 30bb hands. Over/under on how many hands I recorded?

Two questions for M:

1) I'm assuming a 30bb hand is one where we put in 30bbs (i.e. ~$100 in my 1/3 NL game) into a pot AND get called? For example, if I put in $40 on the flop, get called, then bet $90 on the turn but everyone folds, I'm assuming this hand doesn't count?

2) For computing adjusted equity, is it based on the amount of money gotten in on the single street or on the last action on that street? For example, a minraise to $6, I 3bet AK to $35, a shortstack with 99 goes all-in for $100, folds to me and I call. Is my adjusted equity (a) getting in $100 to win $110 with AK vs 99 or (b) getting in $65 to win $145 with AK vs 99? I'm assuming the former?

GcluelesshandtrackingnoobG
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-08-2015 , 05:31 PM
I will be among the 1 % to do this. Have thought about something like this for a long time, and now I have the framework too.

I have played online since I was 15. Just turned 21. Fully Crushing the low stakes live game in my local casino (Bigger city Europe) but now want to move on. I will be starting from the 2nd month since I feel that I have the basic value optimizing strategies for AA and KK. Updates will be done sporadically and hopefully to get some help from you guys.

Thank you for your time and I am strongly positive that I will expand my game enormously with this!!

Also, for the first session I played a short of 3.5 hours. I got AA 3 times in a full ring game, so approx. 3 in about a 100 hands. I started to like this idea very much haha, even though I was not recording AA/KK. Won two buy ins in the short time. Maybe this was a confidence booster?

Best regards
(Yes, I created an account just to be able to post here, although being a frequent reader for the past year. Good job, you made it happen!)

Last edited by Abusamaka; 09-08-2015 at 05:43 PM.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 08:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abusamaka
I will be among the 1 % to do this. Have thought about something like this for a long time, and now I have the framework too.

I have played online since I was 15. Just turned 21. Fully Crushing the low stakes live game in my local casino (Bigger city Europe) but now want to move on. I will be starting from the 2nd month since I feel that I have the basic value optimizing strategies for AA and KK. Updates will be done sporadically and hopefully to get some help from you guys.

Thank you for your time and I am strongly positive that I will expand my game enormously with this!!

Also, for the first session I played a short of 3.5 hours. I got AA 3 times in a full ring game, so approx. 3 in about a 100 hands. I started to like this idea very much haha, even though I was not recording AA/KK. Won two buy ins in the short time. Maybe this was a confidence booster?

Best regards
(Yes, I created an account just to be able to post here, although being a frequent reader for the past year. Good job, you made it happen!)
Welcome to the forums. Glad to help. Good luck.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 08:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Interested to see how Commando's homework goes, I'll have to sub to his thread.

Lol, I played a 11.5 hour session on Sunday (got in slightly more hours thanks to getting into a game that had gone over night). I only recorded AA/KK and 30bb hands. Over/under on how many hands I recorded?

Two questions for M:

1) I'm assuming a 30bb hand is one where we put in 30bbs (i.e. ~$100 in my 1/3 NL game) into a pot AND get called? For example, if I put in $40 on the flop, get called, then bet $90 on the turn but everyone folds, I'm assuming this hand doesn't count?

2) For computing adjusted equity, is it based on the amount of money gotten in on the single street or on the last action on that street? For example, a minraise to $6, I 3bet AK to $35, a shortstack with 99 goes all-in for $100, folds to me and I call. Is my adjusted equity (a) getting in $100 to win $110 with AK vs 99 or (b) getting in $65 to win $145 with AK vs 99? I'm assuming the former?

GcluelesshandtrackingnoobG
1. Correct, I wouldn't record it. But there's nothing magic about 30bb; it's just my estimation of a pretty big pot. Use any figure you like.

2. Knowing full well that it is technically incorrect, I calculate my all in equity as all of the money in the pot times my equity. The way you describe looking at it, calling off 65 to win 100 and something, is necessary to calculate the ev of the call you made. That's non-trivial information, but not what I'm doing with my equity adjustments. With them, I am just trying to control for the big effect big luck swings have in a small sample. So I would record your hand as a $106 win in my ev adjustment column (right? We have 53% v. AK?)
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
1. Correct, I wouldn't record it. But there's nothing magic about 30bb; it's just my estimation of a pretty big pot. Use any figure you like.

2. Knowing full well that it is technically incorrect, I calculate my all in equity as all of the money in the pot times my equity. The way you describe looking at it, calling off 65 to win 100 and something, is necessary to calculate the ev of the call you made. That's non-trivial information, but not what I'm doing with my equity adjustments. With them, I am just trying to control for the big effect big luck swings have in a small sample. So I would record your hand as a $106 win in my ev adjustment column (right? We have 53% v. AK?)
1) 30bbs is a decent part of a typically 100bb stack, a 1/3rd of a stack where both parties are basically committing themselves if they continue. I'm cool with just recording the times we put in 30bb+ and are called.

2) The only problem I have with recording the equity of our last action is that it excuses previous actions on the street and could make us look like a genius even though we've made horrendous mistakes. Ex. We 4bet to $200 with 72o, and Villain shoves for $5 more with AA, so our overall EV calc is based on calling $5 to win $405 with 72 vs AA. Not sure I'm sold on that, but for now I might just leave that column blank and fill it in later if needed.

GcluelessstatsnoobG
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 11:05 AM
I think his point is it's not supposed to be used to analyze play. It's just like the All in EV line in holdem manager. It's just a correction for variance.

So it wouldn't matter if you played horribly to get all in. All it's doing is giving you a more accurate winrate. It won't account for coolers and such. Just your expected return.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 11:35 AM
Yeah, my bad, I think I misunderstood what M was doing, but I get it now: overall, we get in a total of X to win a total of Y with AB vs CD. Got it.

GstillearlymorningouthereG
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09-09-2015 , 11:51 AM
GG , just to clarify, the suggestion is not to analyze the last decision. The calculation is total pot times equity at time of all in. The result is the difference in that number and the actual dollars scooped from the pot.

Adjusting for this number is "easy" and provides a more accurate estimated true WR than actual sample WR.

What you've asked about is more in line with skalansky bucks, which could be great to analyze, but a lot more involved.

One pitfall/challenge with the suggested calculation is it can be convenient to forget about it when we get allin as a heavy favorite and hold up.


PS I trust the thread authors will correct me if I've mucked something up here

Last edited by suited fours; 09-09-2015 at 11:54 AM. Reason: Added a ps
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09-09-2015 , 12:43 PM
Yup, I've got it now 44s, thx.

GcluelessstatscollectingnoobG
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09-09-2015 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
So I decided to start a PG&C for my Homework. cAmmAndo's Study Hall for the 1%
Subbed here and with your PG&C!

Will start the AA/KK analysis beginning with tomorrow's session!

Great work M and Spike, I've been struggling for a while with coming up with a reliable curriculum out of all the training material I've been reading/listening to.

Thanks for your efforts!
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 01:54 PM
I admit that my inclination is to record how other people play hands,even when I am not involved, and then figure out what lines to take against how they play rather than to record how I play hands. What I do probably makes more sense in a reg-heavy player pool.
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09-09-2015 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
I admit that my inclination is to record how other people play hands,even when I am not involved, and then figure out what lines to take against how they play rather than to record how I play hands. What I do probably makes more sense in a reg-heavy player pool.
This is exactly what I've been doing as well.

Still, couldn't hurt to collect some data on ourselves and evaluate over time if we're leaking in some areas. I think?

Greg-heavyplayerpoolG
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 03:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
I admit that my inclination is to record how other people play hands,even when I am not involved, and then figure out what lines to take against how they play rather than to record how I play hands. What I do probably makes more sense in a reg-heavy player pool.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
This is exactly what I've been doing as well.

Still, couldn't hurt to collect some data on ourselves and evaluate over time if we're leaking in some areas. I think?

Greg-heavyplayerpoolG
I do both because I've got a lot of leaks and there are some regs I encounter. It's not difficult IMO when you can come up with a short hand for recording hands.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote
09-09-2015 , 03:45 PM
question about tracking

would it be difficult to convert our live hand histories to a format that an actual poker tracker could read and then create a database that way?

i know we're talking about a lol-sample size in general, but if this was easily done then it would probably be more beneficial, as trackers are set up specifically to handle this information.
COTM: Off Table Analysis Quote

      
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