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Correct river fold? Correct river fold?

08-31-2015 , 11:51 AM
Info on villain -

Mid 40s, the type of guy that likes to gamboool, had previously seen him oversize x/r to a utg open and cbet on ATTcc board and call off a shove with j2cc. He then moved table and came back later, few hands in he limps qq utg gets 6 limpers flops top set an checks, I led turn and he just called with a fd on board then v bet the river when the flush hit with 4 people still in the pot. He is passive preflop and only gets aggressive when he either has the nuts or when everyone shows weakness and he usually goes for a pot sized stab.

OTTH

£1/£1 at quite a weak table. Weak reg limps mp I iso 53s on CO to £5 an get 5 callers. Flop comes down 2d4c6d and when it checks to me I bet 15 into 25 and villain calls and original limper calls. Turn 6s. I bet 45 and villain calls, original limper folds. River Ad. I check and he pushes out a huge stack of 5's for a £125 bet without really thinking about it too much.

Final board is 2d4c6d 6s Ad

OTT I thought his range is all 6x, boats and a few combos of fd's like 85dd, 75dd, and diamond broadway combos. I thought he's probably fold things like 77-99 to the turn bet but I couldn't be too sure about that.

Given what I thought his range is I ended up folding river as I couldn't really find a hand I was beating that would choose that river sizing unless he's overplaying something like 67 or 68 which is possible but doubtful.

Long term I think this is a good fold vs this type of player by I need some validation... Thoughts pls??

Spoiler:
I folded face up and he showed me 99 that he turned into a bluff OTR.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:04 PM
Fold preflop and it's not close at all. As played, call river. This type of player is rarely value betting a flush like this. He is either boat/quads or a bluff
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:10 PM
As played, I'd call river. But I think against him id rather bet/fold river for value instead
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:24 PM
I'd fold this pre. There are much better hands than 53s to ISO this is just to loose IMO. Also if you're trying to ISO at a limpy 1-1 game you need to be making it bigger here. Stack sizes might be useful here since we could try and figure out how the best way to get our stack in. Also It might make preflop ~OK if we're super deep with villain.

On the flop 5-ways I'm betting £20-£25 here since I don't expect an overpair to fold and I expect people to raise/GII with there sets since most people are gonna be scared of the flush draw getting there.

Turn isn't amazing but to be honest I don't think villain's have many boats in there range here but I might be wrong about that. You need to be betting bigger here vs 2 players. 45 into 70 is a little to small IMO I'd be betting ~55ish since overpairs are still probably calling and 6x are definitely calling.

River sucks. Obviously the flush draw got there and I wouldn't expect this villain to turn 77-TT's into a bluff here. I think this player will still be betting any 6x here. Going of how he bet I feel like his hand is weak though. I think he would atleast be thinking of how much to bet with a flush, or contemplate the possibility that hero has a boat. His bet looks like a bluff to me here but I don't really see many bluffs in his range. Still I think I sigh call here vs this player who's been seen to take some strange lines and expect to lose around 60-70% of the time.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:34 PM
It's not exactly an iso when gets 5 callers. Is there stack sizes in there somewhere that I missed? If checking the river, it should be to c/c I think. id be b/f tho, and for a pretty big amount.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:40 PM
Sorry, we were around 400 bbs deep and he was pretty bad, I agree with the pf fold in hindsight but I felt I had a huge advantage over the original limper as he gave me a lot of respect in the pots we played.

I think I could've taken a b/f line otr aswell but bet around 70 since he is still calling with 6x and hadn't shown he can pull off a river raise as a bluff. The way i read his bet was Omgomg I've got a flush/boat lets push out some chips but I guess I was wrong haha. I tanked for around a minute before folding trying to think of a had I could beat since he wasnt the floating type either. Probably should've put all the pieces together from the way he acted/previous bet sizings.

The best thing I could've done was fold pf but I like the b/f line otr. Mistakes were made..

Last edited by JCooper3105; 08-31-2015 at 12:51 PM. Reason: Spelling
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:57 PM
CALL! You can never fold this. It's way too strong to ck-f against this V. You needed a better riv plan before you acted with ck-induce-call being the best line by far because his line suggests his bluff/bet frequency is going to be much higher when you ck Ad riv instead bet.

Also, instead of thinking about all the ways your "straight can lose" with this runout, think about how deceptively strong your hand is especially when you check. There's just way too much that V bets that you're beating to fold, ever.

Last edited by Amanaplan; 08-31-2015 at 01:13 PM.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCooper3105

The best thing I could've done was fold pf but I like the b/f line otr. Mistakes were made..
If you're prone to making a ck-f error in this spot then bet-f errors are going to be more expensive for you long term. If you are calling every time, then bet, otherwise just ck and you'll show a profit.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 01:16 PM
I think if you check you have to call; most will probably not put you on a flush, and continue to bet trip 6's.

I would prefer a bet/fold unless he's capable of raising your bet as a bluff, repping the flush and not believing you can have it. Otherwise you'll still get value from a 6 that may check behind, and who knows what else.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 01:39 PM
Based on your read, it's a call. Your read is that when he stabs pot, he is on a wide range. Here, you should be discounting flush draws because he did not raise your flop bet, as he did when he had the J2cc hand. You should also be discounting them because the Ad falling on the river removes all those combos of flush draws.

All of that takes the "nuts" range down into the range of being relatively few combinations. Because you checked a scare card, you should have realized that he had a betting range that included both bluffs and value bets by hands you beat.

Ironically, checking to induce was exactly the right play against this villain, but you should have called.
Correct river fold? Quote
08-31-2015 , 01:47 PM
Also, preflop was spewy, and folding face up was meh, probably bad. He did show in reply, so that's something, anyway.

Also, seeing the results: Look, your read on this guy was dead on accurate. You checked, showing weakness on a scare card, and he bombed the pot with a PSB. you could not have had this guy pegged better. Your plan for the hand all along should have been to bet flop, bet turn, and CRAI on the river. Given the crappy run off you got, it should have changed to bet/3bet flop, bet/call turn, check/call river.

You had an excellent read, and didn't use it.
Correct river fold? Quote

      
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