Hand was played out a couple of week ago

1/2 no limit
Effective stacks $200

Hero opens co to $9 J9
BB calls
Flop K8Tx
Hero cbets 15
Villian calls
Turn Ax
Hero bets 35
Gillian check raises to 110
Hero?


Not many reads on villain as hand was around 5-6 hands in at new table

Pre-flop is fine (better if you had reads), and I like the c-bet. I probably check back (I assume he checks first from BB) the turn to control the pot and hope to bink river, but I don't mind the bet if you are willing to commit. It's just that the turn probably hits him hard after he called flop. I'm probably committed here for 100bb after putting 1/4 of my stack in, but I like to gamble. As played, I shove. I just hope he doesn't have QJ or the A-high flush draw!

Edit: It helps tremendously if you put pot sizes in each street.

Looks like a fold at first glance

What was your plan when you bet the turn? The real decision point on the turn is when villain checks, not when you already bet and facing a raise.

That the ace is a lot better for my range then his range and a turn card that I can get a lot of folds on. Not sure what line id take if I check back turn and brick river because if river is a complete blank and I bet i think my range looks a lot like kx which is a big part of villains range when he calls flop

Yeah shoved to gamble with 0 fold equity guy flips over nuts and river bricks , NH!

Pot is $193. $75 more to see the river with only $66 or so behind.

If all of our outs are clean and we know the last $66 goes in on the river (and I think it does) we could squeeze out a call. The thing is I don't think all our outs are clean, which pushes this into the fold camp. You will see QJ here a lot.

I don't care for the sizing on the flop/turn with these stack sizes.

fold pre, as played, I'd just call and hope I hit a miracle card

Not much choice once you bet the turn, and gii should have been your plan when you bet the turn. Did he have Qd to add insult to injury?

It sucks but you may want to call if it's enough +EV for you. You are getting 2:1 almost on the dot. By quick glance the pot is around $170, including his raise of $85, and I estimate you probably have (15 outs / 44 outs) 34% chance in the hand (9 flush, 6 additional non-diamond outs for the straight). *(this is assuming he doesn't counterfeit any of your outs (higher flush/straight draw, and you lose an out if he hits boat with a diamond 10, or has one of your diamond/straight cards).

So, it's break-even call as of now - most likely, and the $35 you get out of him on the river will make it a +EV of ~30% (on the $85 bet), assuming he pays you off which I'm sure he would as he would be getting almost 11:1 at this point.

Personally I've been wanting to fold these situations, I don't know if +130% EV (at best) is enough for me, as I believe I can get my money in better, and not having to rebuy, as you'll be crippled if you lose the hand. But it's a tough spot for sure. And again, this is best case scenario, because you have to know if this guy is capable of having a higher draw here, as you would be royally screwed. I'd say it's reasonable to assume he atleast is holding 1 of your outs so you are probably only 32% (14/44 outs), and thus slightly lower, probably +125% EV on the $85.