Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Combo draw facing a huge flop bet

04-30-2016 , 04:27 AM
This is a hand my friend played, he's not on the site and asked me to post it. At the time I was racked up and at the cashier window, the room was closing down in about 10 minutes and so we're in the "gambling hour"

1-3 NL
UTG: Tournament player, busted on the final table, lost out on the big money. Not a particularly good player $255

MP: complete donk $250

Hero: covers, playing TAG, he's about even on the night after a $300 buy in

The Hand:

UTG limps, Hero limps JThh, MP raises to 15, UTG calls, Hero calls

Pot minus rake: $44

FLOP: Qh5h9x

UTG shoves $240
Hero?
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 04:38 AM
Fold obviously. The math is very clear here...
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 06:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
Fold obviously. The math is very clear here...
How are you ranging him such that this is a fold? For me it is close. It's definitely not an obvious fold, IMO.

I can't come up with a reasonable range for UTG which would dictate a fold here, also considering MP's continuing range.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 07:09 AM
we need 45% equity. We have a bit more than that if he has an overpair. I think this is a call, but he made a mistake not folding pre. If this were my home game, I would call and run it twice.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 08:51 AM
I call pretty quickly. Add in AK to villains range (along with some other random crap) which tourney players play this way all the time and this is an easy call.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 12:25 PM
Mathematically this is a call but it all comes down to how much variance you can stand. This is one of those plays that is just barely +EV and I don't blame anyone for folding here.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 01:02 PM
Given the circumstances (last 10 minutes, V missed big payday in tournie, complete overbet). I'm drawing topping V's range at overpair... I'd think that AKo is the bottom of his range, and it probably averages at around KQ. Not sure what that means in equity - but feels like a little worse than a coin flip.

Depends on your mood I guess.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 01:53 PM
This is kinda close but I feel like it should usually be a fold.

We're ahead of AA-Aq
Behind everything else, sets, KK, Nfd

We're never super far behind, but we're less ahead when we are ahead, and are probably more frequently behind.

It's kinda whatever, but I'm confident that the play should be fold.

+1 that limp/calling pre was the biggest error here, regardless of what our flop action ends up being.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 02:00 PM
Raise pre, call flop
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
How are you ranging him such that this is a fold? For me it is close. It's definitely not an obvious fold, IMO.

I can't come up with a reasonable range for UTG which would dictate a fold here, also considering MP's continuing range.
To me it's a very clear fold because we're either behind or flipping but almost never ahead. The pot was $44, of which $15 was ours. Do we really want to fight for that by calling off the rest of our $240 stack?

I wouldn't, but that's just me. That's not how I like to get my money in the middle. I'd be totally fine with it if I was the one shoving though. Like say there was a $30 bet and a call. Now I'm happy to ship it in with some FE. I'm the one who makes the last bet and puts people to a decision. That's how I prefer to play.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 04:23 PM
I think some people are missing that UTG limp/called and is the one that is shoving into us, and we still have the pre-flop raiser to act behind us.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 05:27 PM
Unless he has AKhh you have at the very least 40%. To me its a call, but its so close you can go either way.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 05:36 PM
If you limp. Call pre. And consider fold if this spot you need to move down to where u aren't a nit.

Easiest call of anyone's life.

Bet my dck if the dealer would let me. Jesus crist. Who cares about the Fe you limp called Jts pre and found huge combo draw. Stop leveling yourselves because you lost this spot.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
04-30-2016 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver
Mathematically this is a call but it all comes down to how much variance you can stand. This is one of those plays that is just barely +EV and I don't blame anyone for folding here.
This. It depends on your bankroll and appetite for variance. I personally fold this hand. My logic is I barely have over 20 buy ins at the stakes I'm playing and even though it is slightly +EV I'm not gambling on a tiny edge with my BR so low. Rule 1 is don't go broke.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-01-2016 , 04:32 PM
Results:

Hero calls
MP calls

UTG flips over 69o LOL!
MP filips over JT

Board runs out brick, brick and 69o takes it down.



If it were me, I think I'm leaning towards a fold, but I can definitely understand calling. The responses have been pretty split among others we've talked to.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-01-2016 , 04:46 PM
What's wrong with limp/calling jts? Raising pre opens u up to a 3/bet. Doyle recommended limp calling I believe.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-01-2016 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarPig6565
Results:

Hero calls
MP calls

UTG flips over 69o LOL!
MP filips over JT

Board runs out brick, brick and 69o takes it down.



If it were me, I think I'm leaning towards a fold, but I can definitely understand calling. The responses have been pretty split among others we've talked to.
Like I said, villain is a tournament player and will have some random garbage, one pair hands and AK a lot here. It was the correct call, by a long shot
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-01-2016 , 05:09 PM
Yeah when I heard the results wow. The thing is I never knew she was that awful of a donk, she's one of those players that would usually buy in around 100 at the cash game after busting from the tourny, guess I don't pay much attention to the short stackers. But that is amazing that someone would open shove there with middle pair and no kicker, no draw. Good call, crappy result.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-01-2016 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by esspoker
What's wrong with limp/calling jts? Raising pre opens u up to a 3/bet. Doyle recommended limp calling I believe.
Doyle would limp call with AKs. It's a different game.

Raising also opens you up to taking the blinds pre flop, at probably a similar frequency to being three bet. Or getting a caller or two and having initiative.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-02-2016 , 01:16 PM
I'm cool with attempting to sneak into a pot for cheap with suited broadway. I fold to the raise; we're only going 3way, we're OOP to the aggressor and some of our draws won't even be to the nuts.

Tough spot on the flop. If all our outs are clean, then I think this would be a call. However, there is a chance we're up against a dominating draw (in which case we're in horrible shape). I don't even think we're *that* worried about the donk behind us, as being on a draw we're kinda cool with him coming along to pad the pot. I'd probably fold since I think the most likely hand that would play this way is a dominating draw.

ETA: Well, I guess we're not up against a dominating draw, lolz @ results. Anyhoo, I still think the most common hand we see in this spot is the nut flush draw (possibly that has paired) which is looking to blow everyone out of the pot (I mean, a set or TP is rarely playing it this way, right?), which puts us at ~6 outs in these cases, which is why I'd lean towards a fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-02-2016 , 03:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver
Mathematically this is a call but it all comes down to how much variance you can stand. This is one of those plays that is just barely +EV and I don't blame anyone for folding here.
Wow, I totally agree w/ Jamit!

However, if losing will tilt you or your bankroll can't handle it, folding is fine. I'd call and be pretty happy about it.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-02-2016 , 03:45 PM
snap call.

Its not even close. This is quite a +ev call long term. Also you can heavily discount sets from villians range because people rarely jam $240 into $48 with a set

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 05-02-2016 at 03:51 PM.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote
05-02-2016 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Tough spot on the flop. If all our outs are clean, then I think this would be a call. However, there is a chance we're up against a dominating draw (in which case we're in horrible shape). I don't even think we're *that* worried about the donk behind us, as being on a draw we're kinda cool with him coming along to pad the pot. I'd probably fold since I think the most likely hand that would play this way is a dominating draw.

ETA: Well, I guess we're not up against a dominating draw, lolz @ results. Anyhoo, I still think the most common hand we see in this spot is the nut flush draw (possibly that has paired) which is looking to blow everyone out of the pot (I mean, a set or TP is rarely playing it this way, right?), which puts us at ~6 outs in these cases, which is why I'd lean towards a fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG
If you think he's jamming flush draws, there are also quite a few dominated draws he could be jamming with, like {9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,8h6h,7h6h}

If his range is this plus all NFDs except AhKh, then it's a call. Even if we add {AhKh,Kh9h,99,55}, it's still a call. I don't think you can include Ahxh without including worse combo draws.
Combo draw facing a huge flop bet Quote

      
m