Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123
I'd be comfortable shipping OTF. You're at worst a 42% dog against AKhh or sets, a favorite over TPs, and a ship on the flop takes it down a majority of the time except against sets/2P.
In this case, OTF, you don't want V1 to call. You'd rather push him out to increase your chances of winning.
Why did you check the turn? I would have shipped it. I don't know what to say to call/fold turn because I never would have played it this way.
Don't know why I checked the turn honestly - just felt lost throughout this whole hand. Sounds like the optimal play would be shoving on flop with the combo draw. I just remember reading somewhere that I should never get in that deep of a stack without the nuts/near-nuts, especially in 1/2 or 1/3. That thought stuck with me and I was just trying to improve as cheaply as possible.
Makes sense to jam though since there's so many cards that improve me and my equity is probably really high, especially in a 3-way pot like this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GusMcrae
I’m sorry. Why is this a fold on the turn?
Equity needed to call: 700/(700+700+500) =37%
You’ve got 32% equity versus sets. You only need two flush draws in V’s range to get you to 38%.
I think he has more than two flush draws in his range.
This is an easy call in theory for me, harder in practice, but unless someone can point out something I’m missing something.
Good point about the turn card pairing us and making us favorites over all FDs/2 overs. That thought honestly didn't even enter my mind - I was just thinking that best case scenario we had the 15 outs against sets/2p and flush draws and J8s only bring my equity lower.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPrince
What a crazy hand. First off, with a maniac raising ATC and bombing flops like this you may want to fold 98s utg; suited aces will have a lot more value than suited connectors. Also, how deep is maniac? You have 50% equity vs a range of 3 sets, 4 overpairs, T7s for top two, all combos of AT, and a smattering of Ace/King-high FDs. I don't care if other villain called $150 out of turn; I'm blasting off my stack here on flop and letting Mother Variance pinch my nipples.
As played shove turn. You're ahead of all dominating FDs with your pair now and want to charge the max. Hard to imagine villain slowplayed a set on the wet flop vs the lunatic(also, he overlimped pf so TT and even 77 seem a bit unlikely as even timid players will raise those).
As GusMcrae said, turn is a call as played. We need ~37% equity to BE on a call; vs two sets(77, 44 ... I'm not including TT) and just ONE SINGLE nfd(how about A4hh for pair+FD) we have 38% equity. Our equity only rises the more FDs we assign villain.
You took this hand to the butcher's shop -- the question is, did you come home empty handed or with a month's worth of bacon?
Painfully obvious I misplayed every street
I ended up making the nit fold. I was kind of playing with scared money at this point. Lost a $1,500 pot set over set a couple hours ago. Ran up my second buy-in of 300 -> 900 and felt too invested in my stack. Bad mindset to have, I know.
V1 turned over the jack of spades then mucked, which made no sense to me, unless he had J8 of spades - but I don't see how he could call the 150 flop bet with me to act behind...