1/3, $900 effective

Have some history with main villian in HJ - an hour earlier, I jammed with pocket aces and NFD on the turn and get called by V1, who only had an OESD with middling flush draw on a 3-heart board. I doubled up on him. Overall loose player with wide calling range but tight bet/raising range.

Hero (UTG+1) limps with 89
V1 (HJ) limps
V2 (BB, maniac who's raising ATC) raises to 20
Hero, V1 call

Flop ($61): 7104
V2 leads out for $150
V1 actually throws his calling chips in before I have a chance to act, so I end up calling with the great odds I was getting here.

Turn ($511): 9
V2 and Hero checks
V1 jams for remaining $700ish
V2 folds

Hero ???

Jam or fold the flop. Calling is the nut low option, for hands like this you have to play to knock out a higher FD, because you sure as heck don't have odds to chase your straight or 2 flush outs.

AP, fold AINEC.

Do you generally feel comfortable jamming 300BB's in with a combo draw? I thought about it for a bit, but it seemed way too loose.

And yeah you're right, it's a snap fold on the turn given my pot equity, I guess my question was more about the flop decision to call.

I'd be comfortable shipping OTF. You're at worst a 42% dog against AKhh or sets, a favorite over TPs, and a ship on the flop takes it down a majority of the time except against sets/2P.

In this case, OTF, you don't want V1 to call. You'd rather push him out to increase your chances of winning.

Why did you check the turn? I would have shipped it. I don't know what to say to call/fold turn because I never would have played it this way.

Given that big action is being led by a maniac I am more inclined to call the flop. It can never be too wrong to shove in this situation, but having little FE is going to devalue the play by a lot. At the very least calling is +EV (as opposed to the 0EV of folding), and can be a low variance option.

Not sure why we want to push V1 out of the hand as if we flopped the flush. If V2 is really a maniac, then V1 will likely end up making very bad calls against him, not knowing how to adjust.

Make the easy pot odds decision and fold the turn.

I've also been in similar situations and was quite unable to get third parties to fold even K-hi flush draws. 5-hi too.

Um, we want to push V1 out of the hand because we have 9 high?

If you play with people who call off 300bbs on the flop with a naked FD, please, please, please tell me where you play.

I'm not thinking too much about it being 300BB deep. If we shove V1 is only calling a single raise to continue with his draw because V2 bet 2.5x OTF and shredded the SPR. Not to mention V1 has shown a marked interest in calling off 150 already.

I’m sorry. Why is this a fold on the turn?

Equity needed to call: 700/(700+700+500) =37%

You’ve got 32% equity versus sets. You only need two flush draws in V’s range to get you to 38%.

I think he has more than two flush draws in his range.

This is an easy call in theory for me, harder in practice, but unless someone can point out something I’m missing something.

Just jam flop fvck this guy lol, how bad could you be?

I'm sorry, but literally none of this makes any sense. Are you actually saying that the raise size won't matter at all, because a single raise is a single raise and a naked FD is going to call a single raise no matter what? And then you're saying that calling 900 is the same as calling 150?

Just because I don't think it's impossible for someone to punt a flush draw for 900 off of a shove over a 150 opener definitely doesn't mean I think it will definitely happen or that it's even likely. You are making broad generalizations and dealing in extremes in this thread despite the fact that there are unique dynamics in play, and that OP asked us to give advice on this hand specifically.

Anyway, I don't get why we can't flat flop "because we have 9 high". We have direct odds to call given V1's binding action, and IO > RIO here because V2 has a decent chance to push air on the turns that complete us. There is also an added bonus of making a +EV play without having to race for 3 buy ins. Shoving has all the normal merits as well. On second thought, FE against V2 is probably decent, just because of the sheer amount of air, even if he calls all made hands.

Do this. But if you happen to have a strict risk tolerance policy then just fold flop.

I’m seeing a lot of people advocate folding, those who are can you refute the analysis on post 9?

Live at the table I'm going to call with odds to hit my hand here. If I end up sacrificing some EV then so be it. I don't want to break even on a call this big no matter what.

I never play this hand this way (I would raise flop and if forced to call would bet turn), but if I somehow found myself in this weird situation, I think this is always a call. V's bet makes little sense for anything value except a GS that hit or maybe 9T. If he's trying to get rid of draws with sets, he would not have just called flop. Looks like this is often a steal attempt. Our pair of nines is likely often good here.

Further, even if he always has value, we have 28.3% equity against sets, straights and T9. We're being asked to pay 36.6% of the pot. Surely there is enough weirdness in his range to make up the 8.2% equity we need. Adding in all of the two broadway hearts combos and Ah4h gets us to 42.2% equity and a call. While one could argue that those should be discounted because he didn't raise flop, one could make the same argument for the sets.

What a crazy hand. First off, with a maniac raising ATC and bombing flops like this you may want to fold 98s utg; suited aces will have a lot more value than suited connectors. Also, how deep is maniac? You have 50% equity vs a range of 3 sets, 4 overpairs, T7s for top two, all combos of AT, and a smattering of Ace/King-high FDs. I don't care if other villain called $150 out of turn; I'm blasting off my stack here on flop and letting Mother Variance pinch my nipples.

As played shove turn. You're ahead of all dominating FDs with your pair now and want to charge the max. Hard to imagine villain slowplayed a set on the wet flop vs the lunatic(also, he overlimped pf so TT and even 77 seem a bit unlikely as even timid players will raise those).

As GusMcrae said, turn is a call as played. We need ~37% equity to BE on a call; vs two sets(77, 44 ... I'm not including TT) and just ONE SINGLE nfd(how about A4hh for pair+FD) we have 38% equity. Our equity only rises the more FDs we assign villain.

You took this hand to the butcher's shop -- the question is, did you come home empty handed or with a month's worth of bacon?

>2018
>Hero limps
Gotta explain why you're doing that. AP, if he is manic enough to be doing this with enough air or A high flush draws, call. But you can't go wrong by folding, it's def GTO

SPP, no offence, but you clearly don't know what GTO means, as if you did, you'd be talking about frequencies. Please read the crash course on Game Theory and don't use math terms you can't explain with math.

Don't know why I checked the turn honestly - just felt lost throughout this whole hand. Sounds like the optimal play would be shoving on flop with the combo draw. I just remember reading somewhere that I should never get in that deep of a stack without the nuts/near-nuts, especially in 1/2 or 1/3. That thought stuck with me and I was just trying to improve as cheaply as possible.

Makes sense to jam though since there's so many cards that improve me and my equity is probably really high, especially in a 3-way pot like this.

Good point about the turn card pairing us and making us favorites over all FDs/2 overs. That thought honestly didn't even enter my mind - I was just thinking that best case scenario we had the 15 outs against sets/2p and flush draws and J8s only bring my equity lower.

Painfully obvious I misplayed every street I ended up making the nit fold. I was kind of playing with scared money at this point. Lost a $1,500 pot set over set a couple hours ago. Ran up my second buy-in of 300 -> 900 and felt too invested in my stack. Bad mindset to have, I know.

V1 turned over the jack of spades then mucked, which made no sense to me, unless he had J8 of spades - but I don't see how he could call the 150 flop bet with me to act behind...

Preflop is a fold, especially with the maniac. You want to play high cards and high pairs against this maniac, not implied odds hands like low pockets and suited connectors, where you can easily get barreled off.

Flop is always a jam. These combo draws are the kind of hand that we love to jam the flop with. Even FD + gutshot is good enough to jam flop.

I'd bet 1-to-1 odds that he had exactly JJ