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Combinatorics Question Combinatorics Question

11-03-2015 , 09:54 PM
Hey so I'm fairly new to thinking poker (gambler for a bit). Sorry if this is too fishy to ask but I have a quick question about combinatorics of straights and flushes.

So far I've got it down how to calculate the combos: AA vs AKs vs AKo (6, 4, 16). But I'm confused as to how flush and flush draw combos are less likely than straight combos when ranging?

Ex. OTF of 789, any single spade is a flush draw (10*39 = 390 combos) and any two spades (10*9 = 90) is a flush. So a flush draw is roughly 4x as likely. For straights theres 56, 6T, and TJ = 16*3 = 48 made straights and OESD is 6x or Tx is 4*48 twice is 384 combos. Gut shots would be the same at 384. A flush is 9 outs and a OESD is 8 the odds are roughly equal, but flush is actually more probable of making it. But I just found there's more flush combos (390) than OESD combos (384).

I know I must be missing something or doing this wrong. Any and all help appreciated Most threads on here say something like "flush isn't a huge part of V's range" and I'm always out there worrying about the flush when it comes in at my 1/2 tables.
11-04-2015 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
AA vs AKs vs AKo (6, 4, 16)
^No; 6,4,12.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
any two spades (10*9 = 90) is a flush.
^No; 10x9/2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
OESD is 6x or Tx is 4*48 twice is 384 combos. Gut shots would be the same at 384.
^No; if you take three cards out and then four cards out, there's 45 cards left. And 4 of the 45 would make a straight.

Maybe fiddling with an actual deck would help. Play around with an equity calculator, as well. And this probably belongs in a "poker math" forum.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 11-04-2015 at 01:50 AM.
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