Thanks for the response.

What were your thin years in 2015, 17?

I play quite a bit of live NL small stakes and I agree with your assessment that 10 handed better performs your style compared to 6-8 hand post covid - as casinos aren't very forgiving with the rake/per handed player.

Do you feel your 1-3nl games are likely no longer beatable for 3bb/hour?

My opinion is that nit strategy/super nit strategy is out-dated. What GG have done with this strategy is probably not doable again in todays poker climate. You just have do give some action to get enough action to beat the games for a significant winrate long term.

Even the biggest fish and whales have learned that nits always have the nutz when they want to put significant money into the pot, and is adapting by folding more. I have 1 or maybe 2 nits that plays regurarly in my playerpool that seems to be on GG nittery level- and they have gone from small winners 4-5 years ago to probably breakeven players in todays games. They simply dont get to play enough big pots for stacks or close to stacks to carve out a good winrate. If these nits keep on stagnating/dont working on their games/refuse to try get better, i suspect it will only get worse for these kind of players in the future.

the nits new win rate comes from HH promo's

one reason why I hate them

Nah bro results from 2014 are still meaningful.

great job though GG. (not sarcasm)

Sure. It shows that it is (was) possible to beat the small stakes live games on a good clip by strictly folding preflop and nutpeddling. I am arguing that you cant repeat that in todays poker climate.

Personally i dont get that impressed that a player can manage to fold like a robot, and only play the nutz for thousands of hours. I get impressed with players who starts out tight with a nitty style as beginners, and over time dare to go outside their comfortzone in order to develope their own game. And grow both as a player and a person over time.

The games evolve. Players evolve. Poker evolve. Even though nits dont.

I agree, was kidding. Was making fun of the idea that someone’s sample— stretching back to a time when the game was *completely* different is meaningful in any significant way. In chess and so many other things it is, for example, but obv not in poker.

Obviously the strategy isn’t crushing in 2020, in terms of EV. Obv any strategy can crush over short samples.

it’s GG’s thread so I don’t find it valuable to criticize in here. but I agree.

imo

Lol not criticizing. This is a discussion forum, not an echo chamber. Its perfectly fine to say what you mean.

It depends.

But if you go back to my original outline of my strategy on the first page, I pretty much check the turn (scare card or not) if I've bet the flop unless I feel committed or have a monster. I just think overall that will be the best long term route tightroping the line between realizing our equity, not owning ourselves when behind and ekeing out that second street of value by getting in a last bet on the river (either by calling or betting). There'll be exceptions, but that's my default.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Meh, I really wouldn't go overboard with this, especially preflop, especially at smaller stack sizes. A lot of people didn't come to the casino to fold 97s, even when they know they're up against AA. 97s can crack AA and it is super fun cracking the nit's AA. And meanwhile there can be other people in the hand that have surprisingly strong hands that they've played passively and ain't raising / reraising with preflop, so you can just as easily punt if you're not careful. Postflop bluffing is another matter, but it's mostly about being super patient and waiting for that spot that makes sense and not pushing things when they don't. IMO.

GcluelessbluffingnoobG

Here's my year-by-year at 1/3 NL:

2010: $26.43/hr over 125 hours.
2011: $25.88/hr over 386 hours.
2012: $31.18/hr over 411 hours.
2013: $35.48/hr over 568 hours.
2014: $20.62/hr over 554 hours.
2015: $7.90/hr over 582 hours.
2016: $19.82/hr over 540 hours.
2017: $8.78/hr over 578 hours.
2018: $21.35/hr over 527 hours.
2019: $22.08/hr over 583 hours.
2020: Currently stuck $1 over 105 hours and holding, FML, ldo

Overall: $20.61/hr over 4,960 hours

As for what I can beat them for moving forward, it really depends on a lotta stuff that I outlined in my previous post. I'm not terribly optimistic (but that fits with my overall outlook on almost all things, so par for the course), although I would be surprised if I couldn't beat them for 3bb/hr, but time will tell.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG

Do you know for a fact exactly what the nits in your game are running at? Is it possible they are doing better than you think they are?

I think my strategy has evolved over the years. I started as a slightly more aggressive nit sitting on 100bbs, and now I've evolved into a very passive super nit sitting on 66bbs. FWIW, even though I completely agree with you regarding not being able to get paid off in big pots, thankfully my strategy very rarely involves big pots; it is mostly centered around people making far too many preflop mistakes (by being far too loose and far too aggressive with far too small a stack). You may not like that route (and you're of course free to choose your own), but that's the route I've taken for various reasons. Obviously lol 4960 hour sample size, but I think I've done ~ok using this method and playing to my wheelhouse. How it fares as we move forward I guess we'll see (and I clearly state above how I'm not incredibly optimistic about the future).

Gclueless1/3NLstrategynoobG

i guess increased rake would lower your hourly win rate.

but 7 handed isnt much different that 10 handed at 1/3.
most players dont adjust at this level.
just pretend early position players folded?

oh.. is your win rate including promos like high hand?

Rake at small stacked LLSNL games is the number one silent killer. My guess is the best way to beat a crushing rake is to play almost no hands whatsoever (i.e. very tight OOP and only loosening up in LP).

My style employs a very heavy limp/overlimp to reraise strategy due to the fact that most players are far too loose and far too aggressive preflop. Seeing someone raise to a big $18 (6x) in an misguided attempt to thin the field (note: there is *zero* difference in calling frequency at a typical loose game between any raise that is considered "reasonable") and gets 3 callers is a goldmine when the action comes to you with a big hand, and frankly you don't even care if anyone calls when you have AA or not (cuz collecting $72 risk free when sitting on a stack of $200 is already an incredible ++EV coup). However, when the number of players is greatly reduced then my guess is that (a) the opening size my be sized down and (b) obviously there is much less likelihood of multiple callers, all of which will decimate the profitability of this strategy greatly.

My winrates posted above do not include any BBJ / promo / etc. wins.

Gclueless1/3NLnoobG

This is so true!

Glad to see you are still posting, GG. I've been playing on the Pokerrr app, but no live poker since pre-pandemic. Going to Vegas in November, though. Hubby and I have both had COVID, so maybe we are safer? Who knows? We will still wear masks, etc.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to the eight-handed tables. I think it's going to be great. I agree that other players aren't going to adjust.

*waves at Java*

No issues for you and your husband getting over Covid, Java? Good to hear if so.

GcluelessCovidnoobG

No issues. I lost my sense of taste/smell for a week and we had some moderate cold/flu symptoms and tiredness, but nothing serious. We were lucky!

Yeah, I've heard offhand from someone I know who knows someone who knows someone who also lost their sense of taste/smell for a bit too. Weird. Not sure if lucky or standard (depends on how you interpret the numbers I suppose), but I don't want to start a Coronaids shitstorm in here so I'll just leave it at that.

Ggladyou'reok,gogogo,imoG

it seems in 1/3, the best way to keep your $ is to play weak tight.
if a scare card hits and he bets big, fold.
(unless he's shown to be a habitual bluffer. and i dont mean being caught bluffing once.)

do you agree gobbley?

If weak means typically leaning towards passive, then yeah, overall my opinion is weak tight is an extremely underrated method, especially when everyone else is playing loose aggressive.

But it certainly isn't cool.

Gbutwhateverworksforyou,andImeanthatseriouslyG

GG, you may like the post COVID low stakes world.

I play in Tampa, and the tables are 7H max now with giant plastic dividers and full mask policy.

The amount of gamble-gamble players is high. The amount of lags who raise preflop 70-90% is high. The amount of players who will call 3 streets with MP is high. Just living in value town right now and it's been glorious.

This is a fairly large departure from pre Covid when while I wouldnt call the low stakes player base very good, they were much less bad and getting better every year.

My take is the people who are not scared by covid and are willing to go through the discomforts trend more to risk takers and the gamlbe-gamble type personality.

Hi GG, I read your thread from beginning to end. It’s amazing. My english is bad but I still can sense the kindness, warm-heart, humor and knowledge of you on each posts. It’s a long journey from 2013. I feel like watching the “boyhood” movie through your posts. Hope you and your family doing well. Covid is suck! I’m glad that you still posting in this forum.

About me, I’m in Hanoi, Vietnam and I found myself very very similar to you in 2013. Same age, same poker’s thinking, same full-of-fishs poker tables. But before reading this thread, I’m just break even. Sometimes I made profit with your strategy (un-aware), sometime I play like a bad fish. Your posts made it’s clear and systematic for me and I’m in debt with you for that.

Because of Covid, I do not have chance to apply your strategy yet. But I have some questions to fully understand the your ideas, as follows:

1. We have 0.5/1 USD game. Min BI is 100 U but normally player BI from 200-400. 100U is short stack compare with others. Rake 10% capped 10U. Deepstack like that affect your strategy?

2. Typical table include: 4 come to play and being call-station, like to draw and don’t care about %, 3 looser can call 3-bet with suite connected and donk with flush draw, 2 decent player just like me or little more that me. Clearly better players play at 1/3 table, not here. Is your stra good and suitable with table like this?

3. My section is short: 3-4 hours at most. Then if apply your stra, maybe, all section don’t have real action. It’s make me un-patient and do stupid thing at the end of section. Because I feel waste of my “hobby time” without action. How can I correct this weak?

4. I still un clear about pot commit and SPR part on your posts. Could you make it clear to me using figures? For exam:

- My stack 150BB, villain 300BB. I have AKo, re-raise him from 8BB to 24BB and he call. Pot 50BB now. What is SPR now? Flop draw, I miss and cbet 30BB and he call. Pot now 110BB, I got 100 behind. Turn blank. Did I commit yet, should I shove or check and get bluffed (80%)?

- My stack 200B. I have QQ, vil1 raise 6BB. I reraise 16BB, vil2 IP call, vil1 call, pot 3way 50BB. Flop Ah9s4s. Vil1 check, I cbet 25BB, vil2 reraise 60BB and he cover me, vil1 fold. Back to me. At that time. Pot 135BB and I got 160 behind. What is SPR now? Vil2 is loose then I think he had flush draw 70% and 30% Ax. Did I pot commit if I call this 60BB?

You can use your exam, please with the number then I can understand.

Again, thank you and wish your family all the best! Hope to learn more from you.

(taking this at face value, lol @ me, ldo?)

You'll know a lot better than me how your table plays with regards to being deep, different thresholds for how easily / difficult certain stacks sizes go in, player pool tendencies, etc.

SPR in a nutshell: divide the pot size on the flop by the effective stack (although often there will be multiple ones). SPR of 13 means stacks can be played for with 3 large postflop bets; SPR much larger than 13 means it will likely take 4+ postflop bets. SPR of 8 means stacks can be played for with 3 ~3/4 PSBs. SPR of 4 means stacks can be played for with 3 ~1/2 PSBs or 2 PSB bets. One usefulness of SPR is giving you an idea of what your bet sizes can be if you want to play for stacks postflop. Another usefulness (although more contentious) is, for example, it can help indicate whether you should be wanting to play for stacks with mediocre hands like one pair (big SPRs you rarely do, small SPRs you might want to / will likely be forced to, basically "small hand small pot, big hand big pot"). And preflop will setup the SPR. So, if possible, aim for an SPR you are comfortable with in the game / conditions you are playing in. If stacks are deep, you'll likely always be playing high SPR spots, so position and postflop play are likely more important.

Examples you provided aren't clear cut either way, and will play out differently depending on how you play them preflop. If you were playing a lot shorter, then the more these become automatic 3bets because it is all about immediate hand value and setting up commitment ASAP (plus the little dead money provided by the raise means more relative to your shorter stack and is thus worth going after). However, the deeper you play then the more wiggle room you have preflop, and there are good arguments for both 3betting and flatting (perhaps to re-raise), and mostly the route you choose will depend on your overall method as well as a bunch of other preflop factors (who is raising from where, where you are acting from, how many still left to react, their tendencies, how much dead money is in the pot, etc.).


AK example:

Having taken the route you've taken (i.e. 3betting preflop), the SPR is effective stack divided by pot size on flop, so (150 - 24) / 50 = 2.5. So if you make TP HU you're committed at this very small SPR and should mostly attempt to get in stacks ASAP (the more drawy the board the sooner you attempt this, the less drawy the more tricky you can get and draw it out). Whether you should commit or not when whiffing is a tougher question. With a draw you might want to consider check/jamming at this small SPR (with hand equity and fold equity). Without a draw you might want to just take a small stab and then give up UI (hopefully you're in position more often than not and can check back to realize your equity).

QQ example:

Assuming we're the effective stack, our 3bet preflop route has left us in a SPR (200 - 16) / 50 = ~3.7 spot. So will probably be leaning to feeling pretty committed if flopping an overpair (although this too "depends" in a 3bet pot depending on board). In this case an A flopped, so we shouldn't feel committed and should probably do our best to attempt to not work towards commitment (as difficult as that will be at this SPR, especially if we're OOP). So I probably would have checked the flop; if betting, if would have been mostly to fold to the check/raise. Regarding the board containing a flush draw, overall don't be overly concerned about this if not feeling committed (which you mostly shouldn't with anything less than TP); the chances of someone having the flush draw and hitting it is quite slim.

Ggoodluck!G

AK example:

Thank you, now I realize how big we "normally" open 6-8BB, and re-raise, 18-24BB is. And how it's afffect postflop play. I need to check more to avoid pot committed. I never thought about this line: " (150 - 24) / 50 = 2.5; With a draw you might want to consider check/jamming at this small SPR (with hand equity and fold equity)". When I miss, my thought is: "oh, I still have alot left, 126BB, I will check and if he raise, he already ahead me and IP. I will give up". Maybe I'm playing with scare money and just base on strenght of my own hands.

QQ example:

"So I probably would have checked the flop; if betting, if would have been mostly to fold to the check/raise". OK next time I will check. I used to cbet quite big to push flush draw hands out. Because I don't want to give up my big QQ. But the cbet seem costly and make me more commited later.

Thank you, GG. live tables at my place still run now. I got 15 BI and I will record sections from now on just like you

It's always a good idea to record your results just to see how your method is doing. Due to lol live sample sizes it probably won't ever be extremely accurate, but at the very least it should hopefully tell you whether you are a ~winner versus ~breakeven versus ~loser.

I would recommend a method of playing, posting hands in the forum for feedback/ideas, reading up on various ideas and implementing any you'd think would be helpful/useful in your style, and then keep repeating this cycle.

Ggoodluck!G