I agree with GG that we can never know our true winrate at live NLHE. By the time we reach enough hours to have a decent sample size, well, we're not playing in the same game any more.

We probably never know our exact win rate due to many factors but after 1000s of hours you have a pretty good idea. Poker isnt like a regular job where you know you make X/hr. Its more like a commission sales job where you make more at times and less at times but thru experience you have a pretty good idea what your overall hourly rate is.. give or take. That's all that's important.

For me, the key takeaway from GGs results is that his win rate is ever shrinking. Rake increased which is some of it but most of the reason is because he refuses to adjust to changing conditions.

If people no longer pay off without a monster, bluff them more...ect.

To be fair, GG has adjusted to changing conditions. I mean, he probably didn't start out limping as much as he does now and openfolding as much as he does now. Whether his adjustments are actually the right adjustments, remains to be seen (no one on 2+2 thinks they are), but that there have been made adjustments seems pretty clear, right?

Yeah, I've definitely made adjustments (cliffs: I feel tight is right and tighter is righter), but as Feely / Homey states, who knows if they are the correct ones. I actually had quite a lol large 4000 hour write up on all this but I've decided not to post it.

As for Mike's statement regarding we won't always know our exact winrate but will have a pretty good idea, I dunno. I mean, I have two 2000 hour samples, one suggesting I'm a crusher and one suggesting I'm extremely mediocre (and I could also hand pick a 1000+ hour sample within that to suggest I'm a destroyer). Although, as I've stated, I feel rake + less hands per hour alone could account for a huge part of that difference. And I still find myself at very good tables overall (last session out I 3bet to $100 preflop with a $300 stack and got called in 3 spots, with first caller having the monster known as J9 which I'm pretty sure was ahead of the other two callers, lol), it's just that these tables aren't as good and as common as they once were.

About the only thing I know is that my style eeks out a win in the game conditions I play in, and I've become more accepting of the fact that any style that does that long term, even without crushing results, can't be too bad (i.e. I'm still here, which can't be said for most, a line I'm stealing from Ava which has really resonated with me).

Gseeyouinanother1000hours,ifthegamestillexistsG

"I'm still here, which can't be said for most"
Awesome sir, very true.
I'm sort of still new to forum and a bit overwhelmed trying to catch up to all the great threads like yours.
My question is, forgive my ignorance gobbledy, I skipped from page 9 to here, will read through whole post soon, do you still limp as much?
I'm now starting to question my whole approach to the game.
I've been conditioned to always come in with a raise or fold and because of trying to stick to that philosophy, I now think I'm losing a lot of value by folding a lot of hands in early position, like J 10, for example, because I don't want to raise them in early position.
I now think I'm also playing too aggressively sometimes and commiting too much chips in hands i end up losing.
Any thoughts. Thanks bro.

Yes and no.

No in that I've dropped a bunch of hands from my EP (and sometimes MP) limping range simply because I think games have gotten to the point where they are no longer profitable to play OOP (especially in raisey games where you're unlikely to see a cheap flop). For example, I've dropped Axs/KJs-/QJs-/JTs/66- from my EP limping range (I now fold them) at all but the best tables.

Yes in that I now limp / overlimp my premiums much more, and in fact from almost any position depending on game dynamics. And I'll also overlimp / open limp my speculative hands much more in position (whereas before I believe I was too aggressive with mediocre hands against too many limpers).

It's a constant work in progress. And since I don't record the results of each hand over a large sample size comparing method A vs method B vs method C, I'll never really get a handle on what is working better and what isn't (not that results over a lifetime sample would ever be conclusive anyways). I simply do what I think works so long as I think there are solid reasons for doing so.

GcluelessNLnoobG

1. If 70+% of LLSNL players are net losers, then 4.5BB/hr is not even close to mediocre. Obvs not crushing it, but certainly deserving of a more positive adjective.

2. Let's say GG wins 2 pots an hour. With his style, they are almost always going to be at/above max rake. If rake has gone up from 5 to 7/hand, that's 1.33BB/hr right there. To say nothing about there being less money on the table/in fishie's stacks for when he gets it all.

Sfcukmycasinojustwentto7+2rakeW

True, and it does explain some of the win rate drop...but its not like $7 is high rake. $5+$2 is standard in lots of places and basically everywhere in Florida. So his current win rate is comparable to other U.S. players. He previously had a rake advantage over most people.....and apparently now still has a rake advantage over you.

Do you think there is a merit in opening with these hands?

Lol - Axss (not 6-9) QJs JTs and 66 are all in my EP raising range!

I'd be interested in reading it, even if it's just through PMs. I'd prefer you post it, but I get why you may not want to given some of the abuse you get.

At least at $5+$2 you're getting $2 towards something that theoretically will eventually come back to you. From the HHs I've seen posted on here, apart from lol Aussie rake, methinks $7+$1 at a 100bb max BI 1/3 NL game is fairly big, although I stand to be corrected. Another local room had actually just gone to $8+1 before closing, so it's likely our room won't be far behind another increase.

Grakekills,imoG

Maybe the other room closed because too many people refused to play there with higher rake?

For me it really comes down to game dynamics. I could see the benefits of opening these hands if you're playing much deeper / the raise size is a lot smaller / don't go very multiway.

In my environment, a $20 raise (7x) with <= $300 (100bb) stacks can easily go 5ways to the flop, which sets up a 5way pot (not nearly as much FE postflop) to an SPR of <= 3 (where none of these hands play well). And of course even more crippling if you got guys like me waiting in the weeds to limp/reraise / 3bet.

Gbut,eachtotheirown,andImaybewrongG

The other room closed (as did the others) because NL is dying and has been for quite a while.

GhighlydoubtI'llbearoundinanother4000hoursG

Really? They are opening new poker rooms all over the Country. I cant believe how many there are and how many new ones.

Time will tell how that works out.

Gandhistoryhasalreadygivenaprettygoodindication,im oG

maybe in your part of the world but it isn't dying here. Mtts in particular are getting bigger by the month

Very nice results gg and truly sick dedication, gl with your next 1k hours

I've mentioned before in WBF (back when I posted more) that I live in GG's market and can confirm most of his observations about our local state of the game. While the trend is not entirely 100% negative around these parts, it's pretty darn close. His casino has prob seen the biggest downgrade (other than the one that closed lol). In the past 5 years his place went from decent to borderline unplayable.

I also dont think his strat is as bad as many others do, again based on the local conditions, though tbh I'd rather shoot myself in the head than play it myself.

GG articulates his particular exploitive style so well, even though I would not play his style it is no surprise that he has been successful. Well done GmuchrespectfordifferentwaystoplaypokerG!

You know, where GG lives, there's also competition from online.

Nuttin wrong with that. That's about my range with the exception of A5 (not a fan, no numbers to support it) or middling pairs. C/F depending on the table/stacks.

Just found this thread... Thanks for posting it. It's nice to see the evolution.

just curious, why havent you moved up to 2/5?

Typically only one steak going in my room 99% of the time. And when the 2/5 NL game does go, it's typically the best players in the room swarming a whale or two.

GknowswheremymoneyismadeG