choose the higher ev option on the flop with 67dd - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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choose the higher ev option on the flop with 67dd

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06-12-2016 , 11:49 AM

ttpoker

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 111

100/200hkd Macau cg
Mp1(30k eff) open to 600, mp2(tight young asian) (24k eff) flat,
Hero but flat 6

(std flat or squeeze or fold?)
Flop 4

Mp1 ck mp2 bet 1200 into 2100
Hero? (flat or raise better?)

say hero raise to 4K
Mp2 tank raise to 8k with 15k behind
hero?

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06-12-2016 , 11:55 AM

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Some may argue that highest EV is to fold.

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06-12-2016 , 11:58 AM

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Fold. You have a non-nut straight draw and could be already drawing dead. You hand has RIO all over it if a 6 or 7 hit. If you hit a non-heart 3 or 8, the 4-straight is obvious and it will be hard to get paid if you're ahead.

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06-12-2016 , 12:03 PM

jake

adept

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 796

67s is fairly speculative (I think you're 120bb effective?)... worth a limp not a call.
OTF - prefer a flat. As played - it looks bigger than simply a FD. Fold.

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06-12-2016 , 12:08 PM

psujohn

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,173

OTF - flat.
As played fold.
Pre - i prefer raise or fold

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06-12-2016 , 12:51 PM

ttpoker

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 111

1) villain is tight so i discount a lot of his 78s combos
2) we had 67dd, which blocks 78s and set of 66
3) his sizing looks weak to me, looks like 88-JJ or some nut FD like AThh AJhh AQhh AKhh

by raising here we can possibly push those hands to fold and flipping with his continuing range.

by flatting here we can utilize out position, and also bluff flushes turn if he check, and fold to bet if he bet on flush turn, also can consider flat flop raise brick turn to rep sets or straights too.

so i wanna compare which line had the higher ev, folding to just the 1.2k bet on flop doesn't look good to me.

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06-12-2016 , 03:00 PM

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Thinking at a higher level requires better information, something you did not provide.

All I can see are that MP2 is tight, MP1 raised pre, and MP2 just raised to put in 33% of his stack.

FPS away and report back how awesome you are.

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06-12-2016 , 04:03 PM

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Quote:

Originally Posted by ttpoker

1) villain is tight so i discount a lot of his 78s combos
2) we had 67dd, which blocks 78s and set of 66
3) his sizing looks weak to me, looks like 88-JJ or some nut FD like AThh AJhh AQhh AKhh

You're about 35% against this range with sets. That's if you get to see two cards. You have 6 cleanish outs. I think it's optimistic at best that you get combo draws and decent overpairs to fold. A tight villain bet into two players with a straight on the board. Pretty strong. The PFR is still in the hand, who could be sandbagging a drop a c/r. Not a great spot.

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Originally Posted by ttpoker

so i wanna compare which line had the higher ev, folding to just the 1.2k bet on flop doesn't look good to me.

Sometimes folding for 0 EV is the highest EV move.

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