That's mostly kind of fine for a general heuristic, but a few things here:

1) We only need to be good 25% to call.

2) It's not just a matter of how he played his hand, it's a matter of combos. There are only so many combos of FHs, and every single one of them is seriously discounted by his turn c/c. You don't have to throw them out altogether, but this is a game of probability, and it's much less likely he would play those hands this way.

Meanwhile, the amount of hands that he calls the turn with that he doesn't think are good enough to call a bet is massive. Obviously, these combos are *severely*--a stronger word than seriously, --discounted by the fact that LLSNL players generally don't bluff, but the fact that we're making big bets in a spot where we ourselves are hard-pressed to have a king+, and the fact that villain is seems loose so far makes it at least possible.

So multiply a *severe* discount to his massive number of bluff combos, divide it by the serious discount of a few nutted hands, and I think that number will come out to >25%.

Cliffs: I'm not giving villain credit for bluffing a whole lot here, and I'm not saying it's impossible he plays the nuts like a lobotomy patient, but I still think that we're good enough here to call.

Not that this is directed at me, but when I say "fold pre" (which isn't often in this sub, btw), I generally follow it up with what conditions would be required for me to play that hand in that spot, or better ways to exploit the conditions OP is trying to convey.

I agree that "fold pre" is too often used as a panacea for all that ails OPs, as though if OP simply didn't play marginal hands, they would never get in tough spots. Meanwhile, I very very very rarely see a hand posted here where a player limps behind with J8o in a deep stacked game or isos a single ABC TAG limper with a junky hand or the like. In other words, I have a feeling that the hands that *aren't* posted are the ones where people are missing out on EV more often than I think that people in this subforum are playing too wide.

I think many people here are forgetting about all poorly played AXcc and QXcc combos that we still lose to which would all check the flop, and all check call the turn.

I was MP, I limped after two limpers.

Like I said, there were two whales in the game sitting on a bunch of chips. Anytime you can make a hand vs their 1 pair or better (sometimes less), you're going to get paid. That's what I was trying to accomplish with this high implied odds hand. It's not much more complicated than that.

Sounds like straddle pots are played different where you play. Here it starts UTG, then goes around as normal, skipping the straddle, then the straddler acts last.

Agreed. I think we use fold pre as an answer because playing hands with reverse-implied-odds pre-flop is how you end up making the second best hand and getting stacked. However, great players learn how to play post-flop and get away from second best hands while stacking their opponents when the situations are reversed. And I agree that I either don't post certain hands or make some pre-flop "tweaks" to certain posts to get the posters to focus on the turn or river decision instead of debating the pre-flop action.

As played I'm folding the river. Just don't see enough hands with a K or a smaller flush in his range. LLSNL players are going to be scared of the flush and generally just call with those hands. If you have a specific read on him that's different.

I think some people are underestimating the probability that villain has a boat. OP did not comment on passiveness of V, but a typical LLSNL no-bluffing loose-passive can check two pair or a set on the turn.

If he is check-raising and thinks he is best, he was expecting you to bet with a hand like KJ or a flush. He doesn't think in terms of ranges; that's what he puts you on. Most villains are incapable of trying to bluff if they think that is what you have. He could be doing this with AK/KQ, but he's more likely to be the sort who would either lead or check-call with a small flush. If I were at the table with this guy for a few hours, I'd probably have him profiled enough by now to guess which way he would swing. If he was relatively new, I'd probably call because the information gained from knowing what he has would probably help me target him more.

Rizzults

I called and was shown KT (nut full house)