Quote:
Originally Posted by Corto Montez
"It doesn't matter what line he took, a river c/r range at LLSNL is essentially the nuts."
That's mostly kind of fine for a general heuristic, but a few things here:
1) We only need to be good 25% to call.
2) It's not just a matter of how he played his hand, it's a matter of combos. There are only so many combos of FHs, and every single one of them is seriously discounted by his turn c/c. You don't have to throw them out altogether, but this is a game of probability, and it's much less likely he would play those hands this way.
Meanwhile, the amount of hands that he calls the turn with that he doesn't think are good enough to call a bet is massive. Obviously, these combos are *severely*--a stronger word than seriously,
--discounted by the fact that LLSNL players generally don't bluff, but the fact that we're making big bets in a spot where we ourselves are hard-pressed to have a king+, and the fact that villain is seems loose so far makes it at least possible.
So multiply a *severe* discount to his massive number of bluff combos, divide it by the serious discount of a few nutted hands, and I think that number will come out to >25%.
Cliffs: I'm not giving villain credit for bluffing a whole lot here, and I'm not saying it's impossible he plays the nuts like a lobotomy patient, but I still think that we're good enough here to call.