Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown
To the people saying the c/s is an overbet, please define overbet. Have you seen the actual stacksizes? Villain's in particular...
I don't know that it's an over-bet. I do see V has bet $75 so far, leaving him with $165. I see $162 in pot b4 H goes all in, so V would be calling $165 to win $327 b4 the rake. $5 rake & $1 bb leaves $321.00
321/165 =
1.95:1 money odds for V's call. V is putting in 33.95% of the money that will be in the pot.
Since H will shove with the hand he has, he'll shove with other stuff as well. Since the 2 are friends, V should know this.
H says: "Villian is a decent friend of mine really solid game
probably has an edge over me." H also says V is "hyper-aggro"
So, in this instance, V bet $50 on the turn with a weaker hand that he'd play the same way in order to trap H.
I can see [I may be wrong] V playing 44, 77+, AKo/s, KQs/o, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs, 98s, 65s the way he played the hand. That range for V gives Q
J
38.7% equity.
Let's say V never folds:
sets: 12 hands
2 pr: KT 9 hands
9
7
& 6
5
2 hands
For a total of 23 hands.
[I dropped AA out of the equation for V's holdings]
AK is 12 hands [h]; KQ 9[h] KJs 3[h] QJs 3[h] JTs 3[h] 98s 3[h] 65s [3] for a total of 36 hands.
So, 23/59 = 38.98% of the time, V calls.
Therefore, H wins with a
fold: $112 -rake/bb = $106 * .6102 = $64.68
When
V calls 38.98%, H has 35.9% equity & wins $106 + $165 = $271 * .359 = [$97.29 * .3898] + $64.68 = $102.60 +EV
H loses the $215 he put in the pot on the turn, the 38.98% of the time V calls & wins 64.1% of the time. [$215 * .641] * .3898 = $53.72 -EV.
So, if my ranges are right, as well as my math, H has a Net +EV $48.88.