Villain is an older Hispanic guy without good fundamentals. On a previous hand, he calls a 3x raise on the flop holding AQ to KT8 board without the proper implied odds because his opponent was so short. He gets lucky and catches a J on the turn. He plays a wide range of hands and is your average fish.

Hero is new to the table. If villain is paying attention (which he probably isn’t), then he would only have one hand of observation on hero. He would have seen hero raise from the CO in a 6-handed straddled pot with the straddle calling preflop. Hero then cb when checked to then the straddle c/r all-in, in which case hero folded.

Live $2/$4 Cash Game at Oaks (200maximum bet or raise on top with $400 max buy-in and $5 drop)

Stacks:
Hero is CO with $400
Villain is SB with $600

Pre-Flop: ($6) Hero is CO with 87
6-handed at this point, folds to hero who raises to $12, BTN, folds, SB calls $10, BB folds.

Flop: 953 ($23, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $15, Villain raises to $35, Hero calls $20.

Turn: K ($93, 2 players)
V checks, Hero bets $45, Villain calls $45

River: 3 ($183, 2 players)
V checks, Hero?


I end up calling V’s c/r since it was basically a minraise and I believe I have implied odds (if I’m not mistaken) to call in position and make my hand. I also feel V’s c/r is indicative of a top pair hand and there are many scare cards that can come on the turn that will enable me to take the pot away. When the K comes, I feel that it is a perfect card to bluff. It is a high card and the flush comes in. I believe I can represent a flush with the way I played my hand.
On the river, do you check and give up or continue bluffing? Why?

Thank you!

bet 125 to rep flush/king

he probably has 77,88 9x TT, maybe even worse

his smallish turn bet, which i would have bluff raised is the reason to bluff

If v was going to fold he would have done it when the overcard hit bringing the fd in.... I think i give up now..

I prob fold to the flop raise..

I bet 1/2 pot OTT and he was the one to call

Why does his c/r rep top pair?
You are drawing to 3 clean outs. So you have to win 300 for every time you hit it on the turn. Ap unsure on river. I think he has the flush quite often.

He could still have A9/TTx/JJx/88x/77x/66x

Fold flop c/r

About the IO - your looking at 4 outs with potential flush cards coming in that either put you out or completely stop action. Just doing quick math you would need to win around a 250ish pot when you hit for the c/r call to be profitable.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums

Bringing the discussion back to the question at hand, what do you do OTR?

If you fire on the turn you have to fire on the river to rep the flush. You should have bet the turn bigger imo. If you actually had the flush I would imagine you'd bet at least 60, so I'd do that.

If you're calling flop because you think V has a hand that will pay off what makes you think he's willing to fold?

+1

Kinda feels like you want to have it both ways - if you are calling the check raise to bink a 3 outer, then you have to think he has at least 2 pair, a set or at least wont fold easily with A9. Turning this into a bluff seems contradictory - is he willing to lay down to a raise with these sorts of hands even when the flush card appears?

imo - fold to the flop c/r > bet bigger on turn
ap - feel you need to barrel the river

You have a dilemma here that is player dependent. Most random live players feel more and more committed as they invest more money in the pot and make it to further and further streets. Lot of times if they've put money in pre, flop, and turn, they are gonna frustratingly call the river unless it's a BIG bet and they have shown a tendency to respect their stack. If you bet here it's probably got to be very big where they can view their invested money as a sunk cost to learn they are beat.

It'd be helpful to know the Villian's starting stack in this hand and if you've seen him do any re-buys yet.

V c/r Flop but then flats Turn? IMO that means hes got a made hand and doesnt want to scare you away. If he was afraid of the flush coming (thus the c/r) then you have to squarely put him on a set here.

Opps ... just looked at the River card, paired board. I think you really give it up here unless you want to max bet $200 and hope he has a flush that he is willing to fold.

Problem is that if you had a set then you 3-bet the Flop and dont lead the Turn, right?

I dont see a lot of stories you can sell here ... c/f ... GL

We have a v here who is described as bad kinda stationy. This v shows weak strength otf with a raise to 35 over a 15 cbet. This is probably a see where I'm at raise or a draw. Once the draw comes in he gives up the lead but doesn't want to give up his hand. So he obviously isn't afraid of the draw, has the draw, or has a hand that is strong enough not to fold even when a draw comes in.

If you want to steal here you need to go bigger. 65-75. To better define his range and give yourself some FE. If he call's this large bet you need to give up otr because he is never folding when the board doesn't change.

As played it's always possible he has something like A9 with A of hearts that he might fold to a river bomb. But there's no guarantee this guy will fold this, even if you could see his hole cards. If he has A9 he has the absolute nuts on the flop in his mind and he is never folding. He might make you prove you hit your flush or K.

This is why llsnl is so profitable because vs can't hand read and see what youre repping, therefore they never fold.

I like bluffing at llsnl but not when a bad V raises flop then calls a turn bet and a blank peels the river. They typically aren't folding here. V probably had some weak 1 pair hand which is why youre posting but I think long term bluffing is -EV here.

I'd rather bluff against tight players who show weakness rather than a station showing strength.

Obviously if there is leveling or history or v is a thinking player with a fold button this is completely different

This.
You have no reason to believe this guy has a fold button. Whatever he raised on the flop, he can likely find an excuse to call with on the river, scare cards or not. And he could easily have a flush.

Wrong guy to bluff. I give it up and wait for my chance to valuetown him.

You're right. I am being contradictory and was wanting it both ways.

V started hand with $600 in chips. Had won a decent sized pot a couple of hands prior to this one.