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Old 06-14-2021, 10:21 AM   #1
duckworth
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Join Date: May 2021
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Check back or bluff river vs Donk?

1/2 - $300 effective

Main villain: 40s WW, consistent donk bettor, VP-ing 60%+. Before this hand, I'd seen her donk into preflop raisers and reach showdown with top pair weak kicker, middle pair, and a rivered gutshot.

PREFLOP
UTG1 (L/P) limps, MP (main villain) limps, Hero on button raises to $12 with A10 Blinds behind me were quite nitty and I was not at all worried about being 3-bet by anyone remaining in the hand. Still, I suspect I should choose a bigger sizing here. Both limpers call.

FLOP ($39)
A84

MP (main villain) leads for $20, Hero calls, UTG1 folds
My own strategy is rarely to raise donks, but rather to give them rope to hang themselves.

TURN ($79)
7

Villain bets $45, I call.
Only in hindsight did I consider raising this spot, but I think it could be effective. Have to be ready to go with it if re-raised- what do you think? What size would you use?

RIVER ($169)
K

Villain hems and haws (I perceived this as weakness) then checks. Hero?

Options:
Check - "Missed the draw, oh well, at least I still have shown down and she seems somewhat weak."

Bluff - specifically holding the Ac enables me to rep the nuts...Problem is most of the draws (clubs + 65) got there...Were you to go this route, do you overbet jam (~220 behind)? Or could another size work? Can I ever expect to get something like Aces-up (partially blocked) or bottom set (44) to fold in this spot at this level?
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Old 06-14-2021, 12:30 PM   #2
drowski
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Re: Check back or bluff river vs Donk?

Way too much sdv to be bluffing especially vs a player who likely won't fold any better aces anyway.

Check ainec
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Old 06-14-2021, 12:53 PM   #3
Yeodan
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Re: Check back or bluff river vs Donk?

I wouldn't hate going for some thin value here, like $40 (25% pot)
You'd probably get calls from worse A's and rivered K's, maybe even an 8 and 99-JJ

Then again I don't hate checking behind either.
Think we'd miss some value by checking though.

There's 0 reason to start bluffing here, you most likely have the best hand.
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:04 AM   #4
Moneyline
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Re: Check back or bluff river vs Donk?

Preflop: I like it. You're raising for value in position against a fish/victim and likely to knock out the blinds who could outflop you if you overlimped.

Flop: Good. Even though you're ahead of her range she could have something like A8 or A4 that beats you, and she could also have something completely stupid that she would fold if you raised. Also, the flop is very dry so a cheap turn card is unlikely to hurt you here.

Turn: Good. You're in a similar situation here to what you were in on the flop, only now you have a very good draw so a cheap turn card could dramatically improve your hand.

River: Value bet $60 or so. Your opponent is very loose so there's no reason to fear her hand range. In a big pot she could very well call with something ridiculous, but making a large bet (in absolute terms) could scare her out with many of the holdings you beat... even half pot to $85 is probably too big.

Just my opinion...
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