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Cbet or not? Plan my hand Cbet or not? Plan my hand

04-30-2014 , 04:58 AM
Playing for an hr. Table is super deep and most players are decent. V1 is fit/fold fish. Hero has raised button every orbit and V1 calls in bb and folds to cbet. I figure 12 pre and 15 flop looks good to get the job done. Hero is at 250 and is shorty at table.

V2 is SB. Young Asian. Have seen him raise utg+1 to 15 with 68o and check called flop and turn with second pair ag V1's tpnk. Also saw him overcall TAG's 15 raise from BB with AKo. Tag raised in co and button called. Played very passive tptk after hitting A on an ok board.

Hand. Folds to hero who makes std 12 w AdKh. V1 calls and our target V2 folds. Pot 26.

Flop T97ddd. V checks. Hero??
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 05:43 AM
Bet $19.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 05:48 AM
Check behind. We have a free card to the nuts, and opening the betting to allow him to check raise his monsters is a disaster when we could realise out equity free.

villain has shown he won't fold pairs. Why bet Ace high?

Last edited by Czech Rays; 04-30-2014 at 05:57 AM.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 06:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by a12
Bet $19.
Bet $15. That is what you have been doing. If check-raised, call up to~$45 total.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 06:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Rays
Check behind. We have a free card to the nuts, and opening the betting to allow him to check raise his monsters is a disaster when we could realise out equity free.

villain has shown he won't fold pairs. Why bet Ace high?
Just a small point- Hero is not drawing to the nuts without an 8. This is important if either a 6 or J comes out and the weak/tight villain becomes aggressive.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 06:55 AM
Few clarifications. Fit fold villain in BB was my target not the young Asian. Unfortunately young Asian called and BB folded.

Although I have only seen two showdown hands of v2 which he played passive, he has been mixed calls and bets pre. Also my bias for young asian player sitting super deep is that he is not fit fold in gen. My bias can be wrong obviously.

The board smacks villain's range. And am really clueless. Think more than just cbet or not I wasn't sure how I should play this hand for three streets. Unless villain blasts I am not going anywhere on flop and turn. So appreciate thoughts on how to plan future streets.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 07:26 AM
Since you're raising every button, your image is that you have 2 napkins. A cbet isn't going to cause anybody to fold any piece of the flop. Their expectation is that you would check with a flush. Check.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 04:35 PM
OK I check back as my thinking was v can somewhat hand read and the board hits him. I wouldn't like a check raise. And I am never double barrelling that board.

Turn v bets 10. What now?
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 04:48 PM
What was the turn card?

Assuming it's a brick or hero catches one pair, then call. $10 to win $36 is close to the direct odds you need to chase the nuts, but the board is too ugly to build a big pot. If the board pairs, I probably just give up.

If you hit the flush, then you need to size up your villain. I would lean raise as pot is small. Hero wants a chance to bet big on river, villain with a big flush or a hand that can draw out won't want to give up and the rest are done as soon as you don't fold.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
04-30-2014 , 04:48 PM
What card hit the board on the turn?
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-01-2014 , 03:13 AM
Oops. Turn is 5h
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-01-2014 , 09:07 AM
Since we are heads up, we can pretty much always c-bet. In this case, I think its six of one and half dozen of the other.

I'm fine with a c-bet, I'm fine with checking it back.

There is more or less a 50% chance V has no diamond and if that is the case he isn't c/r blasting us. Even if he flopped a set he is going to get tiny testicles on a monotone board while he hopes the board pairs and the turn bricks. I can't really see too many hands V can have in his range that sees the flop and gets a woody in anticipation of c/r'ing us. The overwhelming majority of his value range is c/c the flop and praying for a brick turn.

So personally, I like c-betting this flop. We take the pot down easily more than 50% of the time and even when V has a value hand he is c/c'ing 95% of the time while he prays for a brick turn.

Then he will check turn and we can check back turn and hope to bink on river

as played, easy call on turn and hope to bink river. If we bink on river, bet 1/3rd pot.

EDIT: Okay, I just read the clarification, you basically messed up the action in the OP and we are up against the young asian kid who likes to make moves. If that is the case, then I can get behind checking back the flop and basically just drawing. Whenever we are in a situation where we have very little if any fold equity but are drawing to the nuts, then its best to just draw.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-01-2014 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
EDIT: Okay, I just read the clarification, you basically messed up the action in the OP and we are up against the young asian kid who likes to make moves. If that is the case, then I can get behind checking back the flop and basically just drawing. Whenever we are in a situation where we have very little if any fold equity but are drawing to the nuts, then its best to just draw.
I don't like the check back on the flop.

A c-bet has at least some fold equity, even against a loose opponent. And our c-bet allows V to put us on a range that includes pairs and straight draws without diamonds so that we may get a call (or even a donk bet) from him when the fourth diamond falls. C-bet also gets him to check turn 99% of the time, so we get two cards for the price of one.

I believe that checking back telegraphs our hand to any opponent who is a competent hand reader. We may get some money off of Kd or Qd if the four flush comes but even then, not much.

I think we have to c-bet here, and if he c/r, we make a decision based on bet size and perhaps live reads. (With position, I lean towards call if its close.) If he c/r, we miss the turn, and he fires again, we are probably giving up (unless the bet size is tiny). If he calls flop bet and we miss turn, we take the free card. If he calls flop bet and we hit the turn, we bet smallish.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-01-2014 , 10:32 AM
with the NFD and two overs we have good equity but if we check back the flop we are giving him control, then we would need to hit the diamond (maybe ace or king) to win the pot. If he raises our cbet, just jam it down his throat. (if he flopped a baby flush he would be all over that donk bet)

If a diamond hits the turn and we bet after checking the flop, he folds and we don't get paid off. If we cbet and a diamond hits the turn, we have a better chance of getting paid off.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-02-2014 , 03:01 AM
I think to properly plan a line, you have to consider 2 things:

1. We only make money when we build the pot and hit or make him fold.
2. We aren't making much money when we do hit unless he also has something.

I think the second point is the most important. Lets say this guy has TPGK. Does he really pay you off when you hit enough to make it worth it the times you don't? Probably not.

So really, you can choose two lines based on your tolerance for variance.

If you check flop, you are looking to check it down all the way and hope he bets river regardless of what cards hit. You aren't going to make much this way, but you won't lose much.

Alternative is you cbet. If he folds, great. If he calls, that's fine, you take the free card on the turn if you miss. If he raises you, then you decide how hard you want to push this.

I think the best line for this hand is to cbet/call a moderate bet, and don't press the turn if you miss. Some hands you just don't make money on. This seems like a high risk low reward situation, so I would not build a large pot, but given that we have equity, we should take a stab at it, and you have said he is folding to cbets a lot.
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-02-2014 , 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sao
I don't like the check back on the flop.

A c-bet has at least some fold equity, even against a loose opponent. And our c-bet allows V to put us on a range that includes pairs and straight draws without diamonds so that we may get a call (or even a donk bet) from him when the fourth diamond falls. C-bet also gets him to check turn 99% of the time, so we get two cards for the price of one.

I believe that checking back telegraphs our hand to any opponent who is a competent hand reader. We may get some money off of Kd or Qd if the four flush comes but even then, not much.

I think we have to c-bet here, and if he c/r, we make a decision based on bet size and perhaps live reads. (With position, I lean towards call if its close.) If he c/r, we miss the turn, and he fires again, we are probably giving up (unless the bet size is tiny). If he calls flop bet and we miss turn, we take the free card. If he calls flop bet and we hit the turn, we bet smallish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
with the NFD and two overs we have good equity but if we check back the flop we are giving him control, then we would need to hit the diamond (maybe ace or king) to win the pot. If he raises our cbet, just jam it down his throat. (if he flopped a baby flush he would be all over that donk bet)

If a diamond hits the turn and we bet after checking the flop, he folds and we don't get paid off. If we cbet and a diamond hits the turn, we have a better chance of getting paid off.
yeah, I thought about this some more. You guys are more or less right and my initial posting (prior to my Edit) still applies.

So disregard my Edit
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote
05-02-2014 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Since we are heads up, we can pretty much always c-bet. In this case, I think its six of one and half dozen of the other.

I'm fine with a c-bet, I'm fine with checking it back.

There is more or less a 50% chance V has no diamond and if that is the case he isn't c/r blasting us. Even if he flopped a set he is going to get tiny testicles on a monotone board while he hopes the board pairs and the turn bricks. I can't really see too many hands V can have in his range that sees the flop and gets a woody in anticipation of c/r'ing us. The overwhelming majority of his value range is c/c the flop and praying for a brick turn.

So personally, I like c-betting this flop. We take the pot down easily more than 50% of the time and even when V has a value hand he is c/c'ing 95% of the time while he prays for a brick turn.

Then he will check turn and we can check back turn and hope to bink on river

as played, easy call on turn and hope to bink river. If we bink on river, bet 1/3rd pot.

EDIT: Okay, I just read the clarification, you basically messed up the action in the OP and we are up against the young asian kid who likes to make moves. If that is the case, then I can get behind checking back the flop and basically just drawing. Whenever we are in a situation where we have very little if any fold equity but are drawing to the nuts, then its best to just draw.





Yep
Cbet or not? Plan my hand Quote

      
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