Quote:
Originally Posted by PoppaLarge
I don't understand why if you know you're behind the widest possible shoving range and the equity in the pot is so close.
Within that wide range you have to at least assign some weight and the weight is strongly skewed to the high end, AK and TT+.
You aren't within 2% of a coin flip against an individual pair until you get down to 55 or so.
You are dominated by AA, KK, QQ, and AK? How many combos of that range are there?
What does V limp/shove into you 100% of the time outside of that range? JJ/TT? How many combos of those hands are there?
Below TT you can either eliminate PPs altogether or assign them lower weight in the range. Say, a decrease of 10% per pocket pair.
Is there any other combo V spews with? AJ? KQ? Doubt it.
Fold.
#1) I'm not sure I am vs the widest possible range possible. As Hero, i have been raising to $30-45 with a VERY wide value range. Things like 77's+, KJ+ QJs. Is it not possible this Villain has picked up on that and decided to shove a lower value hand with the knowledge he is ahead of my range? Or that I will possibly fold a hand with decent equity vs his current holding? Say if he held TT/JJs?
Note: also, many players will raise to say 90 and shove any flop with KK/s or AA trying to get action, while they will shove with all other "value" hands. 99-QQ and AQ+
#2) Because of the dead money in the pot, we are "coin flipping" vs a range of 99+AQ+.
#3) AA-QQ AK+ = 12+12=24 Combinations
#4) I think this guy never folds JJ's.
#5) JJ and TT have 12 Combos
#6) If we assign a decrease %chance of 10% per pocket pair, then we are actually ending up with a 20% chance villain is limp/shoving with 22's.... while I disagree with your logic of %of lower pp he is limp shoving... he may shove some of them, if we assign as many as you are saying, we should be SNAP calling in this spot because his range is then actually weighted towards pocket pairs and the dead money in the pot more than makes up for our small amount of equity difference.
____
at 99+AQ+ we are a virtual coinflip with dead money in the pot.
Any extra hands outside of this range is merely icing on the cake. If we can include any pp lower than 99's we would be making a mistake by folding....