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Caught between a maniac and a short stack Caught between a maniac and a short stack

02-13-2016 , 07:50 PM
Hero MP ($250): Have been sitting for 45 minutes or so. 30s white guy. No hoody, glasses or headphones. Table likely views me as aggressive but tight. I've raised a few hands in position and had to dump them post flop. Haven't shown any hands so far.

V1 UTG ($600): Older white guy who has been raising every other hand since i've been at the table. I've seen him flip over 82o, Q3s type hands after raising PF. Once he's put money in PF, he's not folding until he sees a flop.

V2 CO (120): 20s White kid with a flat brimmed yankee hat. Since i've been sitting he's doubled up once getting it in with 88 PF. He's been in a lot of pots, raising and calling an equal amount. I have not seen him 4!. Just mentioned he is going to leave soon.

OTH

V1 raises to $10, Folds to Hero with AK who 3! to $40, folds to V2 who shoves for $120. Folds around to V1 who frowns and makes the call. Hero?

Thoughts? V2 has been playing short since i've been at the table and has been active enough and gotten it in light enough that i'm comfortable ranging him a little wider than the normal 4!= AA or KK. Maybe TT+, AQs+, AKo. That being the case, Im absolutely crushing V1's range and would love to take advantage.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-13-2016 , 07:59 PM
all-in

you're ahead of V1 who said will always see a flop so even if V2 has AA, the side pot should make up for the $80 you'll lose in the main. If V1 can call $110, he is absolutely calling the extra $130 from your push.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-13-2016 , 08:30 PM
Easiest shove ever.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-13-2016 , 09:51 PM
Just ship it.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-13-2016 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kebabkungen
Just ship it.
Hero did indeed shove. Just curious as to if this is standard or not.

Results
Spoiler:
V2 shows AA and V1 shows Q9s and takes it down with two pair
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-14-2016 , 03:44 AM
Against the given range and ATC, equities are

Us: 21%
TT+, AQs+, AKo: 53%
ATC: 26%

So in the main pot our expectation is about -$4 (21% * $280 - 79% * $80)

Against just ATC for the side pot, we're about 55% (removing KK or AA from the deck)
So our expectation there is about $13 (55% * 130 - 45% * 130).

Short answer, we're making enough against ATC (or something approaching ATC) to compensate for our loss against V2. I'm not sure it's the easiest shove ever, but it should be profitable.

AP, practice losing graciously.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:57 AM
CORRECTION:
I calculated the equities incorrectly. They should be...

Us: 33%
TT+, AQs+, AKo: 45%
ATC: 22%

Main pot expectation is therefore about $39 (33% * 280 - 67% * 80)
And side pot is still $13.

It's back in the running for easiest shove ever.

Thanks to kookiemonster for pointing out my mistake.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-14-2016 , 11:36 AM
Yeah I thought those equities where out of whack.

The easiest way to think about it is to disregard the main pot entirely and consider the maniac's flatting range for the short stack shove. We are still way ahead of that range and will gladly get it in vs him knowing he's not folding any of that range once he called the short stack shove.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-14-2016 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorgalosk
Hero did indeed shove. Just curious as to if this is standard or not.

Results
Spoiler:
V2 shows AA and V1 shows Q9s and takes it down with two pair
Outcome sucks, sure, but that is the nature of hands like these.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-14-2016 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kobold Esq
Outcome sucks, sure, but that is the nature of hands like these.
Meh. My bankroll is built up enough that I'm fine with the variance as long as it's a +EV play. I just like to post hands like this to keep me from becoming too results oriented.
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:55 PM
Rough spot but I think this is a very +EV shove. I've seen this situation a few times where it's almost like the person in V2's shoes doesn't realize you can go all-in. I did this once with AK and the Guy in V2's position tanked for like 5 minutes with KK! (He eventually called, but just speaks to your fold equity).
Caught between a maniac and a short stack Quote

      
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