Casino Matrix 1/2/3 AKo from SB
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 16
Villain is new to the table. Older guy, mid 50's - early 60's. Strikes me as a tight player the way he has carried himself at table so far, but no real reads.
Hero is white, late 20s, wearing a baseball hat. TAGish player, but my image at the table so far is irrelevant to this player being that he has been there for maybe 10 min
Effective stacks are around 400
UTG limps. Villain raises to 23 on the BTN. Hero calls in SB. UTG Calls
Flop KJ3r
Checks through
Turn 6h which puts a flush draw on the board
Hero leads for 45. UTG folds. Villain raises to 145 total with a little over 100 behind.. Hero!?
I felt his raise pre was a bit of a sizing tell, esp with only one limper. The typical raise in this game is between $10-15. I ranged him on 1010+ and elected to call pre and reevaluate on the flop. Didn't want to 3bet and bloat pot OOP against an unknown
How often does this type of opponent check a set on this flop with position?
When he raises me on the turn the only hands I can put in his range are JJ, AJhh, AK, KQ, and not much air.
Is this a standard auto fold?
Thanks in advance for your help!
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 146
Grunch! Big pf raise, check rainbow flop.. smells JJ to me unlikely KK. I'm inclined to fold. We have to call brick rivers if we call turn. I think I'm folding with these reads. Line is good in general. Nice hand
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 2,171
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 723
Do you really think he can have AJhh or KQ here? It's only a set. Probably not even AK or AA because if he's getting that crazy ott with 1p, he would have done it on the flop itself.
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 796
It's interesting to me that most of the posts above put him on a set. That was my first thought - but wasn't sure if it was MUBsy or not. Certainly not cbetting that flop IP heads up seems unusual. Then raising the turn - essentially stack committing - on a card like that - is totally suspicious. I'm still not positive he didn't back into a FD or is overplaying AK - but I'm wouldn't stack off on that possibility.
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 36,149
I think an argument could be made for folding preflop. This guy probably isn't getting out-of-line just because he has the button with one limper; sounds like he's just patiently waiting for the nuts and raising it preflop. There's no other significant dead money in the pot. If we hit our A/K on the flop we're going to get in far more money in when we're behind to AA/KK/set than when we're ahead against underpairs, and otherwise we're going to have to fold to a flop cbet (where he can win with the worst hand).
I probably also check the flop.
I also lead the turn now looking to get some value out of their weaker hands/draws.
When an old tight player raises preflop, checks back the flop, and the raises the turn, this is like the nuts always (KK or sometimes JJ). Based on our reads, easy fold; adjust accordingly if he shows you something weird.
ETA: Is everyone cool with our preflop call? Is folding really too nitty? I guess it might since I'm assuming even older tight guys can easily raise AQ..AT here, but then we're still really banking on an A/K flop to win the hand...
GimoG
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 1,049
Considering that we have no reads on V, we can't classify him as some older-man nit quite yet and start mucking hands like AK to a single button raise.
Personally, I prob play it the exact same. I flat his PF raise, and I play fit-fold post flop a bit passively. Pretty easy fold though to the raise I think. He's never raising PF, X/X flop. X/R the turn with KQ. Can only be KK/JJ/AA imo. Maybe KJ but less likely.