1/2$ backroom game
Hero: MAWG 1100$, started session laggy wining lots of pots, but I have gone card dead last 2 hours or so. Almost all rivers I went to showdown with, I had the goods
V: 325$, younger white guy, headphones, kinda passive Pre with lots of limps from all positions, somewhat nitty but not a rock on the flop. I've seen him slowplay KK pre by NOT 3! an MP open when he was button. Also saw him mini-tank pre with KK when drunk slob shoves 350$ in Pre...thats why I think he is kinda nitty and not beating the game

Side notes to consider: hero and V have never played together. Another played at the table asked my why I'm playing 1/2 instead of my normal 2/5...so he knows I play bigger usually but he doesn't know if I'm a winner/loser/break even.

OTTH
Straddle to 5, V limp MP1, call, call, hero calls in BB with red 22.
Straddler checks

Flop: 245 ($25)
Hero goes 25, fold, V calls, all others fold.

Turn: 245A (75$)
Hero check calls $40

River: 245AA ($155)
Hero 60, V raises to 135 - 75 more. I bet small on river to get looked up by all Aces and straights, since he seems nitty, too. In looking back, I wish I would have went bigger. I have lots of AxXx and 3xXx in my range being the big blind. But he seems to as well Since was limped pre.

Can we shove the river here and expect to be good often enough?

So I'm assuming that the the river is a red ace -- i.e., it doesn't complete any of the flushes.

This seems like a really close spot. I don't think he has a lot of flopped sets, since he didn't raise on the flop and there are only six possible combos of sets anyway. If he limps a wide range, then he has a lot of AX and A3 that backed into trips on the river. But he also has a lot of A5 and A4 that got here as well.

I probably just call. This guy is nitty, yet he's raising. You have the worst possible boat. I don't see him raise/calling with worse a lot here. Sometimes, but less often than he raise/calls with better.

Without more history on what villain will raise with and will call with on river I just call. There are all kinds of worse hands that could call the $60 but villain should have something more then a weak AX to raise. Villain can think your bluffing with a missed draw, but if that is the case then why raise? If villain does have AX of clubs that doesn't make a boat he can't expect to get paid off by worse very often or get better to fold.

I don't think you are missing alot of value by mot raising, if villan is anyway decent he will fold pretty much any ace to a raise here, maybe a straight calls, but that's pretty thin also, so I just can't see us being called by many worse hands if we raise.

I think it's closer to a fold than a 3-bet, but I'm not doing that. Just call. I doubt he's raising you with Acxc here very often. You are repping a boat. A lot of villains won't raise 3x either, and he can still fold it to a jam.

I would have bet the turn.

V1 is a pretty terrible player if he check/calls a set on flop and bets turn. He could have A4/A5/A2 i guess, although that would be pretty aggressive play as well. Basically if V does play A5- pre, and this strong on turn, he certainly plays 3s as strongly on the river. I would ship here, because he is calling with 100% of his range, and you have blockers to A2, im discounting A5 since he likely wouldve bet or raised with such tenuous of a made hand, so basically I figure he has A4 or 3x here enough to get value, but its marginal, and certainly sometimes you will valuebet yourself.

Interested in results on this one, given the read i wouldve discounted his whole range at this point in the hand.

^You realize we lose to A4, right?

Hero calls and V turns over A3o; he flopped the wheel. Very surprised he did raise flop on such a wet board in a limped pot with two behind and me betting from blinds with TONS of hands he is crushing.

Question to you. If you could play hand over now. Would you raise river?

Assuming he raises non nut straights and all his boats?

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Call seems good against described villain. A good spot for post hand info fishing though.

Nah...I don't think AxXx call a shove...a random 3 might even fold. Too many aces full in his limp range, although I guess there are maybe close to the same amount of random 3s and trip aces. But knowing this guy is somewhat nitty, I lean towards just a call.

How do you mean? Playfully talking with him to see what he would have done if I shoved?

yes

No

I'd go with something like "oh no, I coulda had all of your chips" to see if any honest reaction or agreement. Just make it honest and in the flow. Saying anything that makes it look like you're thinking hard about the game is not good.