1/2, no bigger games spread..

lost a bit of money, sitting with about 85 behind (100 max bi).

UTG Straddles, 3 limps, I've got J7 on the CO, raise to 17. UTG calls, limpers fold. Pot 40~

**Reason for Raise with this hand**
Villain (UTG) has straddled every single Button and UTG every orbit, and raises 60% of hands to 10 preflop. limpers always fold on this table or will reraise with top 2% of hands, it's been a very long session and no one is getting anywhere close to out of line.

Flop TJ6 UTG Leads out for 38, I shove for stack, not much fold equity... but Villain tank calls showing AJ looking disgusted.

I can put him on a range of literally AJ and KJ before my shove, he is an open book. Do I have the right anything to do what I did?

Your equity vs. AJo is 45.76%. There are a zillion online equity calculators where you can look this up. If you can get him to fold just a little bit (say 10%), then you win the pot outright 10% of the time, and the other 90% of the time you win 45.76%, which is .41184. (.9 * .4576). Add .41184 and .1 and you get .51181, which is over 50%, so you're winning the pot over half the time (you still need to plug in the pot sizes at each step to get your true EV).

The more fold equity you think you have, the better it is for you, but the bottom line is that you only need a smidge to make this work.

Sorry, not just talking about normal equity. I'm trying to evaluate with more information available, including SPR, RIO, etc.

If I have to add AK, AQ to this range, etc, which I suppose are never folding, how do I assess this in a live game? It's a tough spot to handle on the spot, especially without a lot of chips behind, because this really detracts from most of my fold equity.

I really put him on AJ (if called) or nothing when I shoved, but my thought process was that a donk bet here is never a set. He straddled, probability of him having a pocket pair and not reraising preflop is slim given his image.

If he's got spades, I'm ahead, with 2 more spades being removed from the deck. if he's got AJ, I've got spades and the 7 for a redraw against most hands. 7 spades in the deck left leave me with 0% equity in the hand if he does show up with a dominating draw, and generally overcards (K,Q) which are likely to be live against my shoving range.

Two Pair hands are JT, T6, J6. I can outdraw T6 and J6 without spades, and I can outdraw all three 2p hands with spades. I kind of lumped these together with AJ / KJ because my odds of improving without hitting a flush are equivalent, in my opinion. When I shoved and Villain tanked, I knew I was against AJ/KJ because anything better has to call for the nominal amount more.

There are a couple of things here to look at ..

AP you cant limit his range to Jx (that you are behind) so you do have some fold equity here. Whether or not we can give him credit for taking your stack into consideration before he c-bets is another story. Does he c-bet regardless? This is way different than just 'always' raising his straddles.

AP you should assume that his calling range is smaller than his 'auto' raising range and when he donks into you, then he pretty much hit the Flop somehow .. J, T, draw.

I dont think too many here would take either approach here ... raising PF or even calling the 'auto' raise .. with J7s. But you did AND it hit. Your only play here on the Flop is to shove.

My sub-point here is that you are going to have more fold equity in this spot if you just flat the auto-raise then if you raise and get called. So from a poker-math prespective you will have better 'math' when you give V an opportunity to open with a wider range of hands,thus given you a better chance at a +EV shove. GL

Am I being trolled? Easiest shove ever.

Fold pre.

Where to begin:

In general, as our stack gets shorter, we need to be tightening up the range of hands that we play. Non premium hands needs one of a few different things to make the profitable:
Implied Odds - The money past the original bet that we can expect to win on average when we make a hand that can offset all the times that we don't make a hand, or make a second best hand as we are playing a weaker range than our villain.
Fold Equity - If we are playing a weaker range of hands, we need villains to be folding more often than their fair share when they are ahead so make up for the fact that we are playing a weaker actual hand.
Intense Stupidity of Villains - If we can make plays that are just completely stupid and get calls or folds when it shouldn't make any sense (like villain calling here with K high, no draw would be an example) then we can make a profit even with a weaker starting range.

In this hand, we have none of this. We don't have fold equity, we don't have good implied odds, and we don't have reads that our villain is a total mouth breather.

We should fold this pre flop. Or if we really want to be playing this hand, we need to be topping of first in order to give our self a chance to make +EV plays in the hand as opposed to playing bingo.

As played, just shove it in. We got almost the nut good flop for our hand and we have ~45% equity against any reasonable range. Given the money in the pot we have a positive expectation even with no FE.

had similar question here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...ation-1469663/

Solution is all about combinatorics and stove/equilab grind. No easy way out.
You can add some FE % into equations, but that would mostly be what I call "raw FE", where Villains will only fold completely missed junk like 3p and no draws OTF.