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 10-07-2018, 02:49 PM #2 aisrael01 grinder   Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 415 Re: Can someone check my math? Pot odds are off in hand 2. It should be: Assuming maniac folds: 275 over 390 (your net contribution assuming you call) + 390 (main Villain's net contribution) + 115 (maniac's assumed net contribution) + 50 (initial pot size). Assuming maniac calls. 275 over 390 (your net contribution assuming you call) + 390 (main Villain's net contribution) + 240 (maniac's assumed net contribution) + 50 (initial pot size). You have the gist of it in hand 1, but it is actually more complicated. On the flop, you only have 32% odds to hit your hand assuming that you get to see both turn and river. This may not be the case if Villain makes another big bet on the turn. I don't have a good answer as to how to make a more accurate version of this calculation.
 10-07-2018, 03:34 PM #3 Viral25 old hand   Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Random opinion generator Posts: 1,852 Re: Can someone check my math? Disclaimer: i failed brutally at math in high school. To be fair I drink less now than i did back then and have stopped smoking weed alltogether, so give me a chance anyway... H1: math looks good, enough implied odds to setmine both times. Only thing i want to add is that if CO is so short and likely to shove, you might not get to see a flop that often since the original raiser can still raise to isolate. No idea why you don't shove turn tho. 145 left i think, with 220 in the middle... H2: Not sure what is the worse decision preflop, you calling with K5s or MP flatting AA, lol. Postflop looks good, we are clearly priced in after MP shoves. We want/need some fold equity with these hands tho, since our equity diminishes so much when we brick on the turn (see also H3). So raising flop is muy bueno. As Aisrael mentioned, you forgot the 115 the maniac put in. Also, we have closer to 28% vs sets, not the 32% we need, but whatever, he apparently has more than enough random pairs to make up for that. H3: Yes, our \$EV drops hard on the turn vs on the flop. Typically we need some implied odds to call turns without a made hand. I don't particularly like these theoretical hands, since villain is always gonna have a draw or redraw himself some non-zero % of the time, so all these percentages are gonna be off a bit. Also, stacksizes matter a bunch. If villain bets flop with only \$32 left behind, we just gii on the flop, obviously. If he has more, we usually gain implied odds on the river and can mostly call \$32 on the turn. Random rant: as a european, I've never understood why americans put there odds in X:Y ratio's. Putting them in percentages feels so much easier to me. Specially when it seems easy to remember a PSB =33%, 1/2 PSB=25%, and (with the rule 4 and 2) 9 outs twice=36%, 9 outs once=18%, etc. I guess it depends on what your used to.
 10-07-2018, 04:03 PM #4 andyyougoonie80 newbie   Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 30 Re: Can someone check my math? Thanks! I see my H2 math error. I added maniacs 30 call not his 115 call so: My odds were 275/(275+390+115+115+50)=29%. Really I was more math concerned with this post but the strategy advice is super helpful too. Consensus seems to be that K5s is trash and I get that but I'll stand by my semibluff flop raise since it looks like a good spot for fold equity's sake... Probably noone else agrees though and i should've just flatted the 30 instead of bloating things?
 10-08-2018, 10:36 AM #6 Garick Herr Dr Prof Oberstlt     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Do you even math, bruh? Posts: 24,295 Re: Can someone check my math? Hand 3 is approximately correct. Real equities vary a bit depending on holdings and board, but 35% and 19% are about right, and your formula is fine. What I do at the table is use the rule of 2 and 4, which means that our chance of hitting any given out on any given community card is approximately 2%, so if we are looking for outs with one card to come, multiply number of outs by 2 to get our estimated chance of hitting, and by 4 if we are all in on the flop, as we'll see two cards. So for a bare FD, we have 9 outs, which means that we have about 32% equity in a flop shove situation and 18% in a turn shove, or chance to hit on the turn in a flop call that is not a shove. These numbers are slightly off, but they work for all numbers of outs, so you can do the same thing with 8 outs for a straight draw, etc. The minor underestimation is fine, IMO, as it somewhat makes up for the times we hit our hand and still lose. So if I'm at the table with a bare FD facing a shove, I know that I can pay up to about 1/3 of the total pot, which means that if his shove is less than a PSB, I can likely call. Obviously this is a bit more complex in multi-way pots, but it is still math you can do at the table.

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