3:30am in Europe. People are tired and there are several drunk people at this time on Friday night.

Hero ($500) - TAG, just moved from another table to this current one. Only 6 hands have been dealt to Hero. He hasn't played any hand yet in this table. So probabily not much of an image at the table yet.

V1 ($700) - Chubby guy in his mid twenties from NYC, wearing a cap, with glasses and untrimmed beard. Drinking alcohol, clearly a bit above tipsy. He has been commenting hands out loud with other drunk people at the table, insulting the board when bad flops came while laughing. He has been overplaying hands due to the need to impress his other drunk "friends" at the table.

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OTTOH

V1 UTG+1 limps, 2 more limpers, Hero ROLS with KQ to $25, V1 calls, rest fold.

Flop: Q84 ($60)

V1 checks, Hero CBets $32, V1 insta-calls

Turn: T ($124)

V1 checks, Hero bets $70, V1 insta-calls

River: 2 ($264)

V1 insta-bets $200, Hero tanks for 3 mins and decides to call.

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Thoughts?

Also, what would you do if the river were an Ace non-spade?

With TP on a textured board, you have to bet to give the wrong price to call. Yet he calls twice ... so he either has something or has nothing.

Tommy Angelo wrote about this. Play sets from EP as check-call, check-call, bet half the pot. So does he think this way?

I'm probably calling based on your description.

If the river is the As, I'm folding.

I hate this situation and am interested in others thoughts as well.

Not sure why fold to an Ace on a river. It's a perfect scary card for Villain to throw a bluff.

But also a perfect card to get Hero stacked if Villain has a set.

Tough one.

Calling river as it does not complete any straights or any realistic two pairs. Folding any Ace river as a non-spade gives the nut flush draw top pair.

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I'm either/or preflop. Thanks to being deeper, I don't mind the raise as much as I perhaps would if we were shorter due to creating a more playable SPR. Still, I now find I'm leaning towards overlimping this more nowadays than I was before, but I'm quite passive like that.

Bottom line for me postflop is that we don't want to get into a commitment spot due to only getting in 5% of our stack preflop. With an SPR of 8 we have to be mindful of this. We also have to be careful playing a guy who is overvaluing, as I still wouldn't want to play for stacks with TP postflop but he could (for better or worse) make us do that.

So with all that in mind, I would lean to making sure one of the first two streets checks back. And not really wanting to face a check/raise on the flop (where I'd feel uncomfortable folding to this guy and yet I'd probably lean to doing), I'd probably lean to checking back the flop. This also starts inducing bluffs from complete air as well getting later value bets paid off by much worse.

As played (i.e. betting the flop) I now check behind on the turn for the same reasons I explained above.

One of the reasons I check behind one of the first two streets is because it prevents three streets worth of betting going in, which I'm not really comfortable with. If he made a better hand, he ended up getting paid off 12:1 to our original raise, which ain't a horrendous return on investment for him. Overall, the river is tough, because people simply underbluff in these spots against someone who has shown constant strength (they're not expecting a fold); they simply have it far more often than not, even with all the busted draws. I can't fault anything at this point, but I'm not a huge fan of how we got here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Very strong line from villain and polarizing on this kind of board. Honestly, 50/50 spot could see a fold or a call. You have to call $200 to win a pot of 464 so you only need to be good 50% of the time and you prob are. Sorry if villain showed up with two pair or J9 suited.

If I'm thinking of this right, we need to win about 30% of the time. If we assume his value hands are all J9, QT, TT, 88, 44, and that he is bluffing with AsXs, KsJs, JsTs we can get to almost 30% but I think that's about best case. Marginal fold imo.

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This guy has all two pair combos. Deep stack drunk dude that’s limping and blabbering and can show up with any 2. He can end up here with busted spade draws too imo. Just sounds like a wild player type and that’s how these types play in games I’ve seen. If we haven’t seen him showdown anything suspicious I’d say we could fold but I still think it’s really close.

Yeah I’m not sure we have a 3 street hand and I prefer the B/x/b line against an Atc drunk on most runouts. I’d fold to a river Ace but I cannot find a fold here. Of course my pot would be smaller so it would be an easier call.

Standard call against this type of player. And don't tank for 3 minutes on the biggest brick river card in the deck. You should be calling in under 10 seconds.

I have to disagree here with the checking on one of the first two streets to avoid a low SPR, since I can't give his flush draws, cards for cheap. I have top pair with a good kicker which is a strong hand.

I believe that we need to be at least 43% right here. Because $200 to win $464 makes it 43.

This is the range that I believe Villain can reach with in River. Keep in mind that most of the suited cards I've filtered them to spades only.

The call seems like a right decision since we only need 43% and we have 62% with Hero's hand.

Why do you say this? Could you argue a bit more your answer?

With mediocre hands like TP, you have to be very careful with this line of thought. Don't always be overly concerned about the draws because (a) he'll rarely have that draw and even rarer still actually hit it (all told you're probably looking at a ~5% probability of that all happening) and meanwhile (b) it's possible he's outflopped/turned you and now you're putting in money ~drawing dead. And don't forget that showing weakness and checking will often induce those more aggro players that would have checked/folded their air to a flop bet into now bluffing later streets when they are drawing dead. Plus a check moves you that closer to showdown in a reasonable sized pot for the strength of your hand and helps avoid awkward spots; for example, do you have a comfortable plan if he check/raised any of the first two streets? If you're committed due to a very small SPR, none of this applies; but if you aren't committed then more consideration has to be given to this.

If 3 streets of postflop betting go in, any one pair hand (even TP) quickly becomes much less than a "strong" hand.

Gjustsomethingtokeepinmind,imoG

Nope. 200:464 is the ratio, not the percentage. To get percentage, you need the total pot, including your call, of $664. Your 200 represents 30.12% of the pot.

You need to be good >=50% to call bets with no money in the pot. Here it’s 30%.


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I’m not trying to be a jerk by the way. I used to get confused on this all the time. Then I realized the % you need to win is never >50%. That helped me remember I need to add my call to the denominator. If pot is 0 and someone bets 1, the % is 1/(1+1)


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I was waiting to see how long that math could continue.

Results

Thank you for your answers.

Villain shows T7 and Hero takes the pot.