2/4 live NL game.
Hero (EP, $260) open to 14 with As3s
Loose Idiot (CO, $400) calls.
Competent Reg (BU, $500) squeezes to 40, Hero & Idiot call.

Flop J95s rainbow is checked through,
so it seems pretty clear that the Reg has pretty much nothing.
Turn is 4s. Hero picks up BD Flushdraw and gutshot.

This is where things gets weird.
Hero decides to bet 120 into 126 pot with only 100 behind.
Idiot calls.
(What can he possibly call here?
Only the best combo draws are priced in, but does he even know that???)
Reg folds as expected.

River offsuit 6h. Pot is 366.
Hero checks, as there is no fold equity.
Idiot bets 100.
It seems pretty clear that I have to call with any pair.
In my mind it is also obvious that I am committed, so he cannot possibly bluff.
But does the Idiot even know that?

Getting 4.66:1.
Do I have to close my eyes and call with A high here?

Nice one. Reading halfway is always an indicator of superiority.

If I told you where this game was, and for how much I am beating it, you would probably fly in.
Nowhere have I implied that I played this well, but the villain being an Idiot is 100% confirmed.

Fold. Tons of straights get there and plenty of pairs too.
You've given us no indication that he will be with no pair / busted draws. And if you know him so well you should have some indication of that if he did.

The only thing I know is that he is calling too much. How in the world should I know if he is calling with a pair or a draw?

why would you bet a psb on the turn with no plan ? you can't just expect to get folds 100% of the time, it's good that you picked up equity but you put yourself in this river spot without any plan. you're now getting really good odds to call so if you think he is capable of bluffing river with busted draw enough of the time toss in call

Fold preflop. Even if reg is squeezing with air your hand isn't good enough.

Turn is not a bad spot to bluff but your bet is way too big. $60 will have just as much FE and save you money when called. This sort of bluff is only marginally profitable against a lot of loose/passive/stationary fish that will call off with low pairs.

River is a fold against a generic unknown fish. It's more likely he backed into something or he played a made hand badly then he is bluffing. It could be a call sometimes against certain spazzy fish but they are the exception.

Thx so far.

1.
I usually never call here pre, but the price was so cheap (14->40) plus the idiot in made it tempting.

2.
Turn sizing. I wish, I only had 120, so a shove would be perfect.
with 400 I would always go for 50-60% pot
but with 220 it is really awkward. I just wanted to price out everything.
If I get folds 50% of the time, I am doing fine, I think.

3.
The real question is: Is anyone spazzy and stupid enough to call-bluff there with QT or combo draw?

I kept getting confused about which player was the idiot.

If the idiot were a monkey who was just randomly pressing buttons and had a completely random hand you are a 3-1 dog.

You kind of mangled every decision except for the flop check.

+1

So far I have no reason to believe that villain is an idiot based on the hand, but I have many reasons to believe OP is an idiot

Fold pre with like 65bbs... so obv, even more in EP
Fold when he 3b

x/f flop is fine
x/c or x/jam turn is fine

OMG guys.
Why would I ever post a hand I played perfectly!??
Did I explicitly note that the turn was a weird bet!?

Does that make it a call or a fold?

Does this result in me calling or folding?

Fold pre both times. A3s from EP with 65bb is way too loose.

Potting turn is pretty bad too. With your small stack, if you've decided to go with the hand then a CR jam is much better IMO. If nobody bets, you get to realize your equity for free. There's just no reason to almost pot turn 3 ways in a 3! pot , all the while leaving yourself $100 behind.

Just fold river. Even a broken clock is right twice per day, but I'm honestly having a hard time even coming up with hands that you're ahead of that a competent reg would 3! PF and call your near PSB on the turn. There's like 4-5 combinations of combo draws (all of which are unlikely hands for V), and that's about it.

You misread. Competent Reg folded, Idiot called!

Yes but they are the exception. The average low stakes fish is too passive not too aggressive. Once you have some good reason to think they habitually bluff whiffed draws for bad sizing you can think about calling this off.

Don't get upset if they show you a bluff. Trying to pick of the occasional bad spazzy bluff from an otherwise passive villain is a mistake.

Thx for the one serious reply.
He showed QTo for the -EV draw and no fold-equity bluff.
I know he is of the spazzy kind, and I was really close to calling, but still... having no piece and blocking the FD, I let it go.
I usually do pretty good in those situations, checking and snap-catching the missed draw bluff, but A high ... well...

I tried fiddling around with PioSolver a little and obviously the ranges are defined/known pretty poorly, but in one scenario it would even bluff catch with A3 of the other suits and let go As3s. So pretty close.
The fun part is that Pio would also partially call with QTo and then make the "stupid" bluff

The river is a tough decision, and how you decide is going to be based on how you, at the table, have ranged villain. It's certainly not standard to call - you're hoping he has neither a better ace-high nor a b.s. pair that turned into a bluff or misguided value bet. But at the same time, the odds are tempting.

If you're going to bet the turn, the amount you chose seems like the nut low. Either choose an amount where you give yourself room to fold if you miss or just go all-in against likely weak ranges.

+2 this hand is wtf

hey I tried to give you honest feedback , I just don't like your sizing on the turn; you put yourself in this spot by committing most of your stack and not thinking about what you would do If you got played back at; if you sized smaller on the turn then you could leave yourself enough room to fire river with some FE; or if you sized up on the turn with the intention of calling a river jam then that's fine as well, just have a plan so your not put in this tough spot OTR

If theyre somewhat likely to bet you can c/r allin on the turn. Otherwise just jam yourself on the turn. River as played w/e, get good odds and qt is possible, he could jam random pairs but will often check them behind.

Dont think in terms of "commited", "stupid bluf". Every spot should be bluffed , just less frequently if there is little behind.

Dont post threads if your only looking for validation

Outplayed.

An idiot is not someone who plays poker poorly. It is someone who insults somebody for how they play poker.

there are a lot of straights and flushes that missed. kind of why a lot of people are saying bet less or check raise turn, because now he is probably always calling us with any jack here. because pot adds.

10-q missed kq missed. 78 got there, all sets we lose to. i don't think he is value betting his jacks and when he heroes us with 10s i think he is checking down.

one question is, is how does he feel about 6-7 here, is he going to check it down?

its close a tough spot