Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-24-2018, 07:43 AM   #1
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
LLSNL FF Champ '13
 
ibelieveyouoweme$80k's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Wentzylvania baby
Posts: 12,851
Calling for a chop?

OK.

Wednesday night on the Vegas strip.

$1/$2 game.

$200-$225 effective.

UTG raises to $10. CO makes it $40. UTG calls and it goes heads up.

Flop 852 with two hearts.

UTG checks. CO bets $65. uTG shoves.

While deciding CO says ‘nice hand’ and shows AK off. UTG shows Ah Kh and says nice fold.

CO never folded.

Should CO call here? Math says no.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ibelieveyouoweme$80k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 07:58 AM   #2
AllTheCheese
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AllTheCheese's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Sad life; won't change
Posts: 11,907
Re: Calling for a chop?

If "math says no," then he should fold, and this thread has no point. With complete information, this is just a math problem.

In reality, math says he should call. He's getting 3:1 and has more than 25% equity.
AllTheCheese is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 08:49 AM   #3
samo
Pooh-Bah
 
samo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: NJ
Posts: 4,020
Re: Calling for a chop?

I think the math says call. It's 120/(330+120) = 26.7% min equity req. This assumes $225 effective. AKo has 31.8% equity.
samo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 09:30 AM   #4
Pseudonym
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 104
Re: Calling for a chop?

Umm... he can only win half the pot at best so he needs a bit more equity. Fold.
Pseudonym is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 09:34 AM   #5
answer20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
answer20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 8,359
Re: Calling for a chop?

OP is looking at chop math ... Which samo has shown above, but what's it 'worth' to us? I'm using AK v AK on 852

$120 to chop $440 63.6% of the time .. plus $100 or eff plus $64
$120 to lose 26.4% of the time .. minus $120 or eff minus $32

So long term 64-32 is +$32 or $152 eff?

Or maybe ..
63.6% of the time you end up with $225 ... $143 eff

These don't match, but I think it shows in the long run you gain chips ... GL

Last edited by answer20; 05-24-2018 at 09:41 AM.
answer20 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 09:49 AM   #6
HawkesDave
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 1,171
Re: Calling for a chop?

Flop is $83 assuming SB/BB posted and both folded.

After shove, pot is $333. It's $120/$453= 26.5% pot odds, but you're only getting half the pot, so it's ($120/($432/2)=55.5%. Snap fold. It's not even close.
HawkesDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 09:50 AM   #7
Pseudonym
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 104
Re: Calling for a chop?

Yeah, I was wrong sorry.

64% you make $105
36% (not 26% btw) you lose $120

Call.
Pseudonym is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 09:53 AM   #8
Pseudonym
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 104
Re: Calling for a chop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave View Post
Flop is $83 assuming SB/BB posted and both folded.

After shove, pot is $333. It's $120/$453= 26.5% pot odds, but you're only getting half the pot, so it's ($120/($432/2)=55.5%. Snap fold. It's not even close.
That's where I went wrong too I think. You have ~64% chance to win half the pot so 55% is a call.

Last edited by Pseudonym; 05-24-2018 at 10:00 AM.
Pseudonym is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 10:04 AM   #9
HawkesDave
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 1,171
Re: Calling for a chop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym View Post
That's where I went wrong too I think. You have ~64% chance to win half the pot so 55% is a call.
Yeah, I see it now, too.

You're going to lose 32% of the time and chop the rest. So call is -$38.40 (lose) and +$65.28 (chop) = +$26.88
HawkesDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2018, 10:40 AM   #10
answer20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
answer20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 8,359
Re: Calling for a chop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20 View Post
OP is looking at chop math ... Which samo has shown above, but what's it 'worth' to us? I'm using AK v AK on 852

$120 to chop $440 63.6% of the time .. plus $100 or eff plus $64
$120 to lose 36.4% of the time .. minus $120 or eff minus $44

So long term 64-44 is +$20 or $140 eff?

Or maybe ..
63.6% of the time you end up with $225 ... $143 eff

These don't match, but I think it shows in the long run you gain chips ... GL
Oops .. yep ... 36.4% Still indicates a small gain ... GL
answer20 is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive