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Calling for a chop?

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05-24-2018 , 07:43 AM

ibelieveyouoweme$80k

LLSNL FF Champ '13

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 12,868

OK.

Wednesday night on the Vegas strip.

$1/$2 game.

$200-$225 effective.

UTG raises to $10. CO makes it $40. UTG calls and it goes heads up.

Flop 852 with two hearts.

UTG checks. CO bets $65. uTG shoves.

While deciding CO says ‘nice hand’ and shows AK off. UTG shows Ah Kh and says nice fold.

CO never folded.

Should CO call here? Math says no.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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05-24-2018 , 07:58 AM

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

If "math says no," then he should fold, and this thread has no point. With complete information, this is just a math problem.

In reality, math says he should call. He's getting 3:1 and has more than 25% equity.

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05-24-2018 , 08:49 AM

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,251

I think the math says call. It's 120/(330+120) = 26.7% min equity req. This assumes $225 effective. AKo has 31.8% equity.

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05-24-2018 , 09:30 AM

Pseudonym

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 104

Umm... he can only win half the pot at best so he needs a bit more equity. Fold.

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05-24-2018 , 09:34 AM

answer20

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 10,853

OP is looking at chop math ... Which samo has shown above, but what's it 'worth' to us? I'm using A

v A

on 8

$120 to chop $440 63.6% of the time .. plus $100 or eff plus $64
$120 to lose 26.4% of the time .. minus $120 or eff minus $32

So long term 64-32 is +$32 or $152 eff?

Or maybe ..
63.6% of the time you end up with $225 ... $143 eff

These don't match, but I think it shows in the long run you gain chips ... GL

Last edited by answer20; 05-24-2018 at 09:41 AM.

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05-24-2018 , 09:49 AM

HawkesDave

adept

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 1,173

Flop is $83 assuming SB/BB posted and both folded.

After shove, pot is $333. It's $120/$453= 26.5% pot odds, but you're only getting half the pot, so it's ($120/($432/2)=55.5%. Snap fold. It's not even close.

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05-24-2018 , 09:50 AM

Pseudonym

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 104

Yeah, I was wrong sorry.

64% you make $105
36% (not 26% btw) you lose $120

Call.

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05-24-2018 , 09:53 AM

Pseudonym

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 104

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkesDave

That's where I went wrong too I think. You have ~64% chance to win half the pot so 55% is a call.

Last edited by Pseudonym; 05-24-2018 at 10:00 AM.

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05-24-2018 , 10:04 AM

HawkesDave

adept

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 1,173

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pseudonym

That's where I went wrong too I think. You have ~64% chance to win half the pot so 55% is a call.

Yeah, I see it now, too.

You're going to lose 32% of the time and chop the rest. So call is -$38.40 (lose) and +$65.28 (chop) = +$26.88

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05-24-2018 , 10:40 AM

#10

answer20

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 10,853

Quote:

Originally Posted by answer20

OP is looking at chop math ... Which samo has shown above, but what's it 'worth' to us? I'm using A

v A

on 8

$120 to chop $440 63.6% of the time .. plus $100 or eff plus $64
$120 to lose 36.4% of the time .. minus $120 or eff minus $44

So long term 64-44 is +$20 or $140 eff?

Or maybe ..
63.6% of the time you end up with $225 ... $143 eff

These don't match, but I think it shows in the long run you gain chips ... GL

Oops .. yep ... 36.4% Still indicates a small gain ... GL

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