Based on my experience people dont bluff that much at all. At least not large bluffs. Of course some do, but Im starting to think that the default play when someone makes a big river bet (when hero has had the lead) should be to fold barring a really good read on the player that they bluff a lot. Here are 3 examples. I called all 3 of these river bets. I may or may not have the winning hand in any of them. Tell me what you think. Assume no reads at all.

#1) Hero raises $25 with JJ after 1 limp. Only the BB calls
Flop ($55) 8d 5s 2c. Villain check/calls $35
Turn ($125) 3d. Villain check/calls $80
River ($285) 9d. Villain leads out $175

#2) Hero has 4c3s in the BB. Limped pot 5 ways
Flop ($20) Kc4c4d. SB checks. Hero bets $20. MP and SB call
Turn ($80) 8h. SB checks. Hero bets $50. Only SB calls.
River ($180) 5h. SB leads $150

#3) UTG limps. I raise to $25 with AhAc. BB and limper call.
Flop ($75) Jh8s4c. They check. Hero bets $50. Only UTG calls.
Turn ($175) 5d. Check/check
River ($175) 2c. Villain leads $150.

Effective Stacks would be helpful in each hand. That said...

Hand 1) don't blame a call readless but a lot got there OTR. 67/5x diamonds, 89. V has all the sets too and we lose to lol slowplayed AA-QQ. I could consider a nit fold here depending on live reads.

Hand 2) SB is repping super thin. S/he is closing the action otf so it's either the case 4, a K or a club draw. Don't think they're taking this line/sizing with a K so it comes down to the frequency by which they will run a ******ed bluff with whiffed clubs. I call here too and mutter under my breath when they show the case 4.

Hand 3) nice hand. I snappadoodle all day here at least and possibly raise small OTR depending on stack depth.

I think hand 1 is a clear fold. There is no busted flush draw. The only draw that missed is 34 which might not even be played from the BB. 89 and 67 got there on the river and can very reasonably play this way. You are just hoping he's turning a pair into a bluff?

Hand 2 has some argument for a call, but probably a fold because fish have a weird tendency to slowplay trips, and he's bombing it. You are really just hoping he has busted diamonds or K5 that he doesn't realize he's turning into a bluff. I think bluffs usually size smaller.

Hand 3 I call happily. The sizing is scary, but you underrepped your hand with a turn check, and the runout is pretty decent for aces. Villain should expect most Jx to be good. Of course you also lose sometimes to a flopped set or some weird two-pair/straight.

Probably fold the first, call the second, dunno about the 3rd.
Could go either way based on reads.

I think #1 and 2 are sigh folds and #3 is a clear call.

Think about how your range looks to villain on #1 and #2. You raised pre in hand #1, bet the flop/turn in both hands, and villain called oop. The villains have no reason to suspect you'll fold to a relatively large river bet. It is almost always for value. Both boards are relatively dry and there aren't many draws to spaz bluff.

With #3, the board is slightly more connected and you slowed down on the turn. Villain has reason to think you'll fold to a bluff or make a value bet with Jx/QQ.

1 clear fold.
2 closer but lean fold vs Some Call vs others.
3 is a snap Call and maybe raise mostly calling luttele worried about 44 and 88

1) Fold. 2) Fold. 3) Call.

Obviously I know what happened but if I was looking at these hands objectively I think I would say

1) Easy fold
2) Probably call. Hero chops a lot of the time and villain has missed FD a lot of the time.
3) Easy call

I don't see many opponents donk bluff river into a guy who has been the aggressor for the last two streets. This is never a bluff so I'd say we are losing to too many combos from a loose small blind's range. Its possible the SB limped with ATC here, so all the A4, K4, Q4, T4, J4, 94, 84, 54 combos are in play here. This puts twice as many combos of hands that beat us with the hands we chop, not to mention I think hands like 24, 34, 64, and 74 might get a little MUBS and c/call the river because they are worried about their low kicker.

We need to be good here around 50%, and the best we can hope for is a chop so I'm not seeing this call being profitable. Since you're Mike, the "All Starr" crusher, you can probably make this fold. Lol.

Not really. You only chop vs. 43s/64s or a lol 74s. If villain has a 4, you're probably outkicked. 54 got there, but I'm not sure there are any 54s left. I assume you have 4s3s? There are two 4c.

People are likely to give you credit for a blind special. I doubt many flush draws bluff here. Villain should beat 4x no kicker most of the time.

That's how I saw it, what do we beat? A lot of 4x beats us. Yeah it's a really odd spot to bluff with a flush draw in a limped pot where the blinds easily have 4x in their ranges. Even a lot of fish understand this. I expect 4x a lot and a 4x we lose to. What Kx ever does this?

Duh...Im an idiot

No reads?

Fold
Fold
Raise

I'dcall 1 and 3 and fold 2, although I think 1 is close and this is a great example of how important reads are

The problem with calling 1 is that we have allowed V to draw profitably, that's why readless pushes me to a fold.

H1: Looks pretty nutty, I'd fold. TT and 43s doing this? I don't think so, more combos of strength than bluffs imo.

H2: I'd call. What type of 4X is the SB completing? A4/54s/64s. Think we have enough equity to call.

H3: Y, once the turn checks through ez call.

Only calling in hand 3 but this is absent any reads which are everything.im a firm believer that Folding in most games vs most villains is going to be correct though.

It used to be pretty ldo that "stop'n'go" is clear sign of strength, but I guess it isn't as obvious now simply because so few people use the term.

1 and 2 are clear fold without read.

3 is dependent of several things, and without going in details, most people just don't merge by firing that big with less than < AA. So it's either a bluff or value > AA.

Can't see many bluffs in V's range, so it's again a pretty clear fold without read.

3 (or any of the hands, for that matter) is not stop n go.

Votes

#1) 8-2 in favor of fold
#2) 9-3 in favor of fold
#3) 8-1-1 in favor of call with 1 vote for raise

#1) He had Kd5d
#2) He had 45. I do have a read that this guy makes big bluffs with missed draws but also with makes large bets with big hands. His big bets really stand out because hes a massive calling station most of the time.
#3) He had 76

I lost them all which is the reason for the post. This line of villain blasting the river after you had control of the the entire hand is very strong. I dont think people bluff this big often enough and we should just be folding most of the time. I think if you robotically just folded to this action without even trying to go into depth putting him on a hand, you would come out way ahead.

Hand 3 still may be a call because I checked the turn, but his bet size is what confused me. Most people will bet $75 or so with a J or a set. His $150 bet looked like a bluff meant to make me fold something like TT

Agree with this, but hate the turn check in #3.

Your read on hand 2 is not really important in a limped pot. It's a dead fold. You need a guy who over values TP type of hands to consider calling.


Hand 1 is my favorite, Kd5d, pfft.

Mike i will say you are discovering some pretty influential meta-game ideas. I hope over the next weeks/months your WR goes up as you start acting on them.

I couldn't blame you for calling any of these 3 but if in the future you fold all 3 thats 475$

PS - i like how you pose the questions to avoid biased responses

Grunch

Hand 1: if V is under 30-35, I may call. If V is older than that I'm folding

Hand 2: we have a weak bluff catcher, again ages/physical descriptions may help, but I'm leaning more towards fold here. SB can have all combos of 4x and we only chop with a few combos of 4x. But again, the front door FD missed, so there's a argument for bluff catching

Hand 3: were very underrepped, so probably calling here, but an UTG l/c range is going to have a lot of small pocket pairs in it

LOL you're right, too.

Anyhow, river donk bet into aggression especially at a large size is never a good sign.