The game is 1/3 at the wynn with a $500 max buy in so the stacks are deep

V1 (BB) is a younger Asian man who sat down about 45 mins prior. No real reads but I viewed him as a weaker player as I saw him call an open OOP and then showdown a suited Q/rag prior to this hand. Sitting on roughly $350

V2 (UTG) is an old Asian man who is clearly drunk and having a good time. Known to the dealers so I imagine him to be a reg here. Has been consistently straddling whether it be utg or otb. Often squeezing the straddle if it gets limped around to him. Previously showed as light as 56dd during one of his squeezes after everyone folded. Not significant to the hand that much so stack size isn't that important.

V3 (MP) is a mid 30s early 40s Asian woman. She had previously been really active at the table. She had built up a stack of about $900 from what everyone thought to be value but as it turns out she was most likely bluffing more than value betting. She showed one bluff on a 3 flush board where she got one player to fold top two pair. She had pocket 6s. Ever since she showed that bluff everyone has been picking her apart and her stack fell to $400

V4 (CO) is an old middle eastern man. Calls too light pre with unsuited connectors in and out of position. Chases draws and will often call bets with weak holdings. Sitting on roughly $425

Hero is otb. Likely viewed as tight by anyone paying attention. Won a few pots without a showdown but if it got to a showdown I was showing the goods. I cover everyone.

OTTH

V2 straddles utg to $6, limp from a non important player, followed by v3 and v4. Hero is otb with A2cc and decides to limp behind followed by v1. V2 then raises his option to $30 and is called by everyone but the first limper.

Flop (~$150) is Q 3 8

V1 donks $25 and is called by everyone. I haven't seen v1 do anything like this in the short time that he's been there but I imagine him to have more Qx than anything else here with the weak bet size.

Turn ($275) is the 4

V1 leads for $70, v2 folds, v3 calls, v4 calls

Hero?

call - I highly doubt a shove takes this down enough four ways. we have position on everyone, so we get to play the river perfectly, and we have extremely attractive direct & implied odds.

We have 12 outs.

The straight we make if we make it is not the nuts but should still be good.

Gives us about 24% equity unless we think rivering a red A will win, we should not rely too much on that holding up even if we bink it.

Flatting gives us solid "pot odds".

We probably won't beat whoever call us unless we bink, and if we are going to bink we might as well have players around who might call us dead.

Even if we have 20% fold equity against each of the three of them even after they have called $70 on the turn, presumably with SOMEthing ... with three opponents calling 80% of the time, they all fold only about half the time.

In my games it's more like 5-10% fold equity against each after they all call the $70 turn bet. That means we are more likely to get at least one caller with SOMEthing.


The rest of the time we have to make a hand to take down the (now $485) pot. $70 into $485 seems a really good price, don't you think?

I fold to the raise pre because we are really not that deep.

AP, standard flat OTT.

I think your best bet to semi-bluff was on the flop. Way too likely someone with a set raises, and there are no 2-pair combos out there that would call a $30 PFraise, except for possibly Q8 suited from late position. Top two likely raises the flop here so I'm discounting this.

I would either jam flop or make it $200. A raise to $200 only needs to work less than 50% of the time, not to mention we have 33% equity to win with our flush outs if someone does lol call or jam.

By the turn, V1 has invested way too much $ in the pot to ever fold his KQ+ type holding, so jamming is getting snapped off. Call for pot odds and implied odds.

Folding a suited ace otb after a drunk man who squeezes his straddle really light and already two callers in front, and an almost guaranteed 1 caller behind seems a little crazy. I do agree with not being that deep though.

^ It's not that crazy. The SPR is going to be too low for you to have much FE post flop.

You lucked out that he made it $25 on the flop, since it added so much dead money out there with all the callers and it gave you great odds to either call or semi-bluff.

If he had made it $70 or more, you would have had no FE, and basically would have had to become a calling station with a flush draw, which is hardly +EV.

Ok that makes it more reasonable when you put it like that. But the people in the hand didn't really pose a threat, as you can tell by the $25 lead. Any reasonable sized bet and no action before me on the flop would've got me out of the hand and there wouldn't be this thread. But with these sizes it's obviously hard to go anywhere with all these people in the hand

Anyways hero decides to flat which leads to an interesting river, the 4c. V1 jams the rest of his stack in, v3 folds, v4 calls.

Hero?

Most of the time, a river raise here will only be called by better.

But V1 is already all in.

If V2 could beat our flush, what would he do?

Since he is drunk, do we care?

You're thinking of v2 but he folded on the turn. The question I am asking is should I be jamming over the top to get the rest of v4s stack. Are we ever worried about a slow played set turning into a boat on the river? While most people who regularly play, I imagine most would find a raise with a set somewhere with 2 fds on board. But amateurs it could be reasonable that someone slowplayed a monster

I agree with whoever said semi bluff flop. I like raising donk bets. With no two pair combos on board it seems unlikely that v1 is going for a donk 3bet line.

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$150 pre

Fold pre, not a great hand to limp in general, let alone with high likelihood of a raise

Turn shove seems bads