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Old 10-07-2018, 07:57 AM   #1
Chicagodude
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Call this river bet? KQ?

NL 1/2
Hero is at $170. He is in for $270 in the game. Hero is running bad, playing bad in the last month or so. The game is pretty regish but lots of people want to see flops. The three villains here are older than Hero--50 to 65 or so? None of them are wild. Influencing my weak behavior preflop is the knowledge that lots of regs at my casino call with AK. I don't know why they do this but they do again and again.
UTG opens to 5. MP calls, and Hero calls in the cutoff with KQ. BB also calls. Would most of you raise to 20 here? I must say KQ has gotten me in a lot of trouble over the years. A raise to 5 is usually 44s to 99s or KQ or even AQ with this group. I just call. SB folds.
POT $21
Flop 57J
BB bets pot, $20
UTG, MP calls...Pot is now $81, Hero getting 4 to 1 to draw to second nut flush. Is it too MUSBY to think second nut might be a problem to draw to among this group?
POT $81
TURN 9
Now Hero has gutshot too. BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $30. Hero calls. BB folds, UTG folds.
POT $141
River Q
MP bets $50
Routine call here? Given MPs small bet sizing is it a must to call due to chance of nut flush draw bluffing with a small bet on the river after failed draw?
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Old 10-07-2018, 10:25 AM   #2
QuadJ
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

This looks like a pretty standard high variance situation the whole way down. I actually favor a fold on the river but I would call here sometimes against all but the tightest opponents. The board is pretty ugly by river, with lots of straight/two pair combos but there are also a bunch of one pair and pair+draw type hands that missed.

Preflop I would favor a raise but flat calling is OK. In this sort of situation with opponents who play AK/AQ passively I'm often raising to get heads up and hoping to hit nothing because c-betting air and taking it down is more profitable then hitting one pair.
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Old 10-07-2018, 10:44 AM   #3
Garick
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

Easy call, imo. There's some weak pairs in MP's range too. There's also a lot of weird 2p hands, so we're losing this a lot, but we only have to be good 20% of the time.
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Old 10-07-2018, 02:09 PM   #4
johnnyBuz
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

Jeez man get aggressive somewhere. If not pre then certainly on the flop. You’ve got K-hi but loads of equity. Look to GII ASAP.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:50 AM   #5
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Jeez man get aggressive somewhere. If not pre then certainly on the flop. Youíve got K-hi but loads of equity. Look to GII ASAP.
I agree man, looking at this hand again today I thought the same thing.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:53 AM   #6
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Easy call, imo. There's some weak pairs in MP's range too. There's also a lot of weird 2p hands, so we're losing this a lot, but we only have to be good 20% of the time.
I felt like with the pot size I had to call. He had 5/7 diamonds. I said, "Nice hand sir!" wish there was no queen on the river.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:55 AM   #7
Chicagodude
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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Originally Posted by QuadJ View Post
This looks like a pretty standard high variance situation the whole way down. I actually favor a fold on the river but I would call here sometimes against all but the tightest opponents. The board is pretty ugly by river, with lots of straight/two pair combos but there are also a bunch of one pair and pair+draw type hands that missed.

Preflop I would favor a raise but flat calling is OK. In this sort of situation with opponents who play AK/AQ passively I'm often raising to get heads up and hoping to hit nothing because c-betting air and taking it down is more profitable then hitting one pair.
I honestly think that, at this point, KQ is the hand that gives me the most trouble. It used to be JJ but KQ has taken over at this point.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:57 AM   #8
Tuma
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

i would 3-bet to $30 preflop.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:53 AM   #9
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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i would 3-bet to $30 preflop.
+1. Your oppenents seem scared money and passive. You can get a lot of A high holdings and low-medium pocket pairs to fold on whiffed flops, if they even call the 3-bet to begin with.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:37 AM   #10
Homey D. Clown
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

I would 3bet pre-flop. On the flop, as played, I would look at my stack, shrug and just shove with my flushdraw, two overs and backdoor straight draw.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:07 PM   #11
Chicagodude
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

OK, I have listened to you I think a 3! would have taken it down and I will proceed like that in the future. I honestly appreciate the advice.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:09 PM   #12
ImAllInNow
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

river seems like a fold to me. I doubt MP bets worse for value and I struggle to find hands he'd be bluffing with here.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:10 PM   #13
ImAllInNow
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Jeez man get aggressive somewhere. If not pre then certainly on the flop. You’ve got K-hi but loads of equity. Look to GII ASAP.
I don't think jamming the flop is bad at all, but I don't know if it's for sure more profitable than flatting.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:11 PM   #14
ImAllInNow
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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Originally Posted by Chicagodude View Post
OK, I have listened to you I think a 3! would have taken it down and I will proceed like that in the future. I honestly appreciate the advice.
3-betting preflop here is also ok, but calling is certainly fine too.

Don't be results oriented.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:19 PM   #15
bodybuilder32
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
3-betting preflop here is also ok, but calling is certainly fine too.

Don't be results oriented.
Not 3-betting against a capped range of weak holdings is leaving so much $ on the table.
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Old 10-09-2018, 03:58 AM   #16
Homey D. Clown
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

With this stacksize I don't hate the call pre.
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:21 AM   #17
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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Re: Call this river bet? KQ?

I donít hate the preflop call either. These are MAWGs. Not sure they are getting that far out of line with preflop raises.

Only OP can say what a $5 open is in his game. (And he did).

I can definitely get behind 3-betting KQoff and flatting KQ suited some percentage of the time.

When V bets river if he is TP he isnít afraid of the Q. His bet kind of tells you he has a Q beat ... unless he is capable of betting AJ for value here Iím ok with a fold. I probably call in game but folding is probably the correct play.
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