Villain ($230) is a late 20s reg well-known to Hero at this underground room. He tends to short-stack 30-50bb and play fold/push until he builds up a stack. In this session he had already dropped three $100 buyins in this 1-2 game within 45 minutes, and for one of those hands he was up nearly $200 when he was felted by someone who caught runner-runner straight against him. Given that Villain typically whines and steams when he loses, he was nearly apoplectic for a couple of orbits after that suck-out.

Villain thinks of me as an aggressive nit, and he doesn't normally want to tangle with me--although one of his $100 feltings prior to the above hand is when his QQ lost to my ATs when we got it in PF (yeah, that was a pretty loose 4-bet push by me). I should also note that a couple of weeks ago Villain min-raised me on the river on a paired board after I bet out my rivered flush, and after I tank called he mucked without showing, and mildly berated me for taking so long to call with the flush.

9-handed 1-2...two limps to Hero, who raises to $15 with A A in MP...folded to Villain in BB who calls, limpers fold.

Flop ($31 after rake) 2 players
Q 8 5

Villain checks, Hero bets $20, Villain c/r to $50...Hero calls.


Turn ($131 after rake) 2 players
Q 8 5 8

Villain checks, Hero checks (Should I have bet here? I felt like I was WA/WB)


River ($131 after rake) 2 players
Q 8 5 8 Q

Villain bets $60. Hero...?

Shove the turn. He has a Q more often than an 8, and with the current game flow, I can't see him ever folding top pair.

My initial reaction is to fold river, but would he really check a Q ott?

His only reasonable bluff seems like straight draws, but this is a very solid card to bluff on. I think his line is goofy regardless, but I mean, he can have 99-KK and a number of weird bluffs, and you're getting 3:1. I probably call.

I think your turn check is fine. Keeping the pot smaller is good. If villain comes to life with a huge bet on certain rivers, you can fold, etc.

I'd call now.

8x is very unlikely. I don't he's c/r an 8 on the flop.. or checking turn with an 8.

Qx is possible, but I don't think he's always c/r the flop with a Q.

Either way, I think the key consideration here is the river bet size. Betting 60 into 131 is really weird sizing with a boat, and I think it's a reliable tell. I definitely think the OESD 76 is in his range, as well as pocket pairs he spaz c/r on the flop and now have no showdown value (22-44, 66-77). He could sometimes c/r the flop with a gut shot like T9, JT, J9. If he made a huge bet on the river, I'd be more inclined to fold.

If he's still tilting call. But is such a close spot that you could literally flip a coin.

I think I bet/call the turn though. He's not x/r you with 8x otf. He cannot have QQ. Does he 3b 88 in this spot sometimes?

The turn card is a good card for you b/c it eliminates possibilities of him having a set of 8's. His range now looks like , 55 , Q8, Qx .. and if he had Q5, his 2 pair just got counterfitted. Im not sure he calls oop hu with these hands (q8,q5) anyway. If he had 55 or Q8, he just c/r'ed you and you called.. he has to put you on something here; he would automatically put you on a hand like AQ.. so why would he check the turn with 55/888 .. that makes little sense, as does your check behind.

i am definitely betting this turn for value. villain only has a little more than a PSB and is calling with so many worse hands here.

this is not truly a WA/WB situation. So many spots can be abstracted to a WA/WB situation if you only think in those terms, but you should be thinking more in terms of value, not in terms of WA/WB. We are betting here (turn) because he will call with so many one pair hands that we can get value from , and his SPR is so low he is almost never folding top pair. You described him as a sticky/hero caller so who knows how many other hands he's calling with here.

Yeah, turn is definitely not WA/WB. You can get value from Qx, among other hands. WA/WB doesn't refer to actual relative hand strength, it refers to the ability to get value from worse.

After V c/r the flop, I like checking the turn to keep the pot smaller but especially to induce lighter calls and lighter bets/bluffs on the river. I can see the case for a bet, too.

For this Villain, I'm ranging his flop c/r as being fairly limited to 88/55/QTs+/KQ/AQ/76s...and maybe QQ/KK if he was feeling gun-shy PF, since he had clawed his stack back yet I'm sure is still stinging from when his QQ lost to my ATs.

Although taken in a vacuum I could easily seeing him bluffing this river, I was struggling to think of a worse hand that he would've had on the river with which to bluff.

If KJo is in his range on the flop, why not JT, J9, T9, 76?

I think its a value bet id fold , by the agg nit don't don't go together, also 4betting a ss 3bet is pretty bad

I mistakenly wrote KJo since that was in his PF calling range; I'm not expecting him to c/r with KJ.

And I had included 76s in my ranging but forgot to include it.

I've since corrected the post.

It is a strange line by the villain. The flop is dry so there is little reason to raise you off your hand with a set. That said, kids these days will c/r TP for any reason. I can see him having some sort of KQ type hand and play it like this. He decides that he wants you to fold your AK equity on the flop. When you call, he realizes he's beat and checks the turn, then hits his 4 outer on the river.

The other alternative is that he bluff raised on the flop, decided to not bluff on a great bluffing card on the turn and has decided to bluff the river.

The only reason I'm calling is if I want to just see what he has.

whether we are good or not on the river really isn't important or interesting. The mistake was checking back the turn. So it isn't very productive to talk about whether or not you should call the river.. sure , call, fold , why not.. this is pure speculation. What you should take away from this is, raise the turn for value. Don't slow down just b/c board paired, especially with a villain that has 1 PSB. Realize next time this is actually a good card for you after a c/r on the flop, especially when villain checks in front ott after c/r'ing you. He c/r'ed you, the cat is out of the ****ing bag, man. His SPR is around ~1, this is basically a no brainer jam for villain. Theres no reason for him to slowplay, he should be betting here. He checks.

these "as played" type scenarios serve no purpose. Its like, hey i know i shouldn't be in this hand pre, i shouldnt call the flop, or the turn, but the river.. should i call here? You are looking at a subset of the overall problem, which is an error.

as played... since you checked back the turn, he is going to bet so much wider here to try to win this pot, i definitely call.

That sounds like a good reason to check the turn.

good point, i was going to say that actually.. but with these stack sizes and SPR , it is not necessary at all.. and you'd be losing a ton of value here if you check back with that intent.

See, I think stacks just further the case for a turn check.

Villain won't stack off on the turn with "everything" - he can have some really weird air in his range.

On the river, I think he'll stack off 100% with all his value hands - better and worse - that he had on the turn. So no change there.

However, on the river, I also think he might bluff, as well.

With just 1 PSB left, there less benefit to getting it in on the turn. If the river is a certain card and villain shoves, we might fold, but usually, we're a) snapping off river bets, which are going to represent a wider hand range than the turn or b) value betting ourselves on the river, likely gaining the same value we would have on the turn.

Checking turn I think leverages position for more EV.

no way, its not even close

first of all, checking back the turn *sometimes* induces bluffs. Not always. Other times, he c/f's hands where he may have called a shove ott. You just missed a ton of value. Other times, you are letting villain get there otr for free. Any 4, 9, , or Q comes, and he shoves.. now you are the one making the mistake.

also, when he does bluff, he is very often not bluffing the entire $130. Like in the hand above, he bets $60. If this is a bluff, are you raising? If you raise, he folds, and you lose value again.. this is a huge difference.

Yeah, makes sense... I dig all that ^^^.

I think you're probably right on all points.

I would almost never call this river. This is an obvious Q. I would ask if he will show if I fold and then fold. He will show KQ and I would realize I butchered this hand on the turn. The turn is the hardest street to play in holdem but calling on the river because we made a mistake on the turn is bad. Because we misplayed the turn we have no idea where we are and now want to level ourselves into thinking he is bluffing.