1/2 NL

Hero, MAWG, is a stranger to the room, been here 2 hours, $400. Hero's image is n/a because he just got shifted to this table less than an orbit ago.

V is older WW, but not old enough for OWC. Not riffling chips like a conjurer, but seems comfortable and is sitting behind $700 in neat stacks. Ordinarily, based on age/gender stereotypes I would expect her to be tight/passive, but there's that 3.5 buy in stack - running hot or good reg? Don't know.

Hero, MP $400
Villain BB $700

Folds to H who raises to $6 with Q9

I know, I know, get your "Fold pre" out of the way early in the comments. H is comfortable tossing out this small raise just to get a feel for the table that he's just sat down at (3rd hand played).

Folds around to V in BB who raises $6.

Hmm, I would expect just a call out of a tight/passive older woman unless she's QQ+, but what's this min re-raise? Don't know. Hero has relative position and relatively cheap $6 call into a $15 pot so he does.

Pot $20 (rounded for rake and easy numbers)

Flop: AA8

V checks

H has nothing going for him other than perhaps betting out to rep an A, but A is a big part of V's range and, with no history, I can only assume she would be likely to check trip A's. H checks it back with $388 behind.

Pot $20

Turn: 5

V bets $20

H has picked up a backdoor flush draw, and V is now betting like she does indeed have an A, and now wants to get value for it. H normally doesn't like to draw to a flush or straight with a paired board. but backdoor flushes can really pay off, especially against trips. H calls with $368 behind.

Pot $60

River: T

V leads out for $50. (Pot $110)

H doesn't normally try to do strict math with ranges at the table, but he would have range V on QQ+, AJ+ for the re-raise from the BB, but that min re-raise is still bothering him. It still feels like trip A's, not a boat, because I wouldn't have expected her to re-raise from the BB with AT or worse. Of course, H's pre-flop raise was tiny so maybe she did? Anyway, H is thinking trip A's for V and it's time to get paid for his backdoor flush.

H raises $80 (Pot $190, Hero $288 behind)

V re-raises $100 (Pot $290)

WTF? Is clicking it back her thing?

Anyway, H is not sure of himself at this point. It's obviously at least a call, but should H raise all in for value? (Calling would leave H with $188 behind on a $390 pot)

Real time H is beginning to strongly suspect V holds AA for a cooler but, again, why the min click back pre and why isn't she shoving her quads here? H doesn't see V with an Ax boat for reasons previously stated, doesn't think it likely she re-raised from the BB with pp TT or less so a lower boat is unlikely, does she re-raise pre with K - yes, with AK, but that's only one combo.

Hero decides he's too confused to raise for value, calls, and instantly (before showdown) regrets it, thinking that value really was there for a shove.

Thoughts?

I don’t think 4b the river is smart but I probably do have to call for the $100 though. There’s a lot more AK,AQ in her range so you’re likely not out flushed. Unless she flopped quads you should be good here but quads is a very real possibility. After doing to math you have like $130 begins if you call the river? Maybe I would just shove and look for AK to pay you off. I change my mind. All in.

Fold pre.

AP - it's a snapfold to his river raise.

I'd be very surprised if V doesn't show us the nut flush or a boat here. Vs at 1/2 don't 3! without the nuts.

What nut flush or boat hands does old lady V min raise back out of position?

V either has trips or quads. Way more trips than quads. Shovel chips, accept variance.

Meh this could be a lot of boats to be honest. She deffo has an Ace..whether is could be A5, A8 or AT I don't know.

One Q though...when you raise 80 OTR, you make it $130 to go yes and V makes it $230 total? I think that is right because you couldn't just raise to $80 when V led $50.

I think its close, but I probably just call after the lead three bet on the river. OWC's don't do this very often so I would think we are shown boat/and or quads too often to make a shove profitable.

I assume you guys would think I was an OWW because I'm over 40. However, I almost never min-raise, so I definitely don't play like she does. I would raise smaller on river trying to get a call because when I bet, almost everyone believes me I believe her, and raising won't get a call from worse unless she's terrible. I'd fold trip As there. Just call (or fold) river. (She might have the KsXs, too. Raising should get her to fold that, but that's about it.)

IMO, never raising a flush on a paired board vs. an unknown is most likely +Ev. I hardly ever chase a flush on a paired board, against anyone, when it's not the nut flush draw.

Shorn - I agree with nearly everything you wrote. The min reraiae pre is weird. I started in the call camp but thinking about it we’re WA/WB IMO. If she has the flush then bless her heart. I’m raising here because there are hands we’re ahead of that can call. Donkey V’s could min raise w/ AK pre all day and then think AK is the nuts. Maybe she has boat but it doean’t Make sense. I do some dumb stuff from time to time but i’m AI on the river and feel fine. (I 3b a guy last session on the river w/95 from the B.B. in a limped pot and a J9876r board and MHIG).

Maybe. I do stupid sh*t all the time too so I get your point. I just struggle to 4! AI with like 9th nuts (AA, AT, A8, A5, TT, 88, 55, KJ are better) vs an older woman who has bet both the turn and river and THEN 3! my river raise.

+1

Surely this advice is ++++EV in the life session. I’m a pay-off wizard and am still all in. Or as the OP put it i’m In the own thyself camp.

I would fold or call to her river 3bet. Reraising is absolutely crazy and way too thin. Especially when the flop goes check/check and u call the turn. She has to know u can easily have a flush here..


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Thanks for the replies so far.

At the table, and after reading the replies, I'm still of the opinion that a call is plus EV. I'm still heavily weighting Ax in her range, and a $100 call to showdown for what becomes a $390 pot means I need only be right 25% (or so) of the time or better.

So, given my decision at the table that I was at least calling, I should have been thinking only of my possible re-re-raise shove, which would be $188 to win $188. I need to be right 51% of the time or better for the jam to make money in the long run.

Any flaws in the above logic?

I don't have time to Stove it because I leave for work soon, but I'm not sure how competent I am at stoving. I can assign initial ranges pre-flop, but there is little (or even no) information on this villain. I can eliminate some combos based on the board and betting behavior, but I'm not sure whether I should add some previously eliminated combos based on subsequent streets and betting.

Regardless, as I said in the OP, I'm not trying to run the math in my head at the table, but I will occasionally stove (and, rarely, post to this forum) a hand to check my thinking. (I'm also reluctant to stove it out to the river because I know results, and that might influence what combos to eliminate or add.)

I'll let it percolate some more and post results tomorrow.

Fold pre.

As played, if we raise, make it 12.

Flop and turn play are optimal.

When she initially pots the river that looks very value heavy or bluffy. She probably bets smaller with AK/AQ. I prefer a call before I know what I'm dealing with because so far apart from the min-raise pre, she seems like a bit of a baller and its hard for me to put her on a range

3betting for value is gutsy and not a bad play. But when she 4 bets we are probably toast. Wipe all thoughts of a 5bet from your head. You can probably just fold and save the one hundo.

This comment is entertaining but you're leading us toward your view. It doesn't help us provide objective advice.

Yes.

I'm usually very careful to nuance my advice on 2+2 but as this specific situation has been described, a 5bet should not even be an option.

When hero 3bets after villain pots the river, he's telling villain he has a boat.

When villain 4bets she has the relative nuts in her mind which is A8 or better. AT or AA seems more likely given her minraise preflop. An overvalued flush seems extremely unlikely given all the blockers and well.... she just potted the river on a paired board then 4bet to a raise!!!

It is hard to get value from the nuts or 2nd nuts when you're holding the 9th nuts.

OP: I would encourage you to not provide the results for a while and hear a few more views.

The min re-raise PF is either AA or suited cards as a pot sweetener.

As played on the river, it reminds me of when I was learning poker and limit was prevalent. I never understood how deep stacks got all in. Eventually, it's pretty obvious that someone has the nuts.

I definitely can find a call to her reraise, but coming over the top seems a bit much.

Okay, I'll let it ride until the comments stop coming. In the meantime I found the time to run PokerCruncher.

Given that this older lady V re-raised from the BB (and disregarding for the moment the strangeness of it being a min raise to H's original small raise) at the table I was thinking just premiums for her range: QQ+, AQs+, AKo

H (Q9)

Flop: AA8:

H: 5% (all numbers rounded)
V: 95%

Checks around

Turn: 5 V donks $20

At the table I was thinking that this indicated trip A's, so I'll add AT+ to her range. Does she lead out with QQ or KK on this board? I'm thinking not, but I'll leave them in for now.

H: 17%
V: 83%

River: T V bets $50

V donks again, and at the table I'm still thinking it's trip A's. I'll add all A suited because it's possible she's more aggressive than I thought and would raise from the BB with those against my small MP preflop raise. For the same reason I'll add 99+, which brings in TT and V just boated up.

H: 79%
V: 21%

H raises $80, V re-raises $100. What V holdings should be added or eliminated now?

I'm tossing 99, JJ, QQ, KK:

H: 71%
V: 29%

That leaves us, based on the initial ranges and subsequent adjustments, with V holding a range of AA, TT, A2s+, ATo+.

Hmm, still seems like she isn't likely to have raised from the BB that wide. Eliminating A9s and lower, and ATo gives a range of AA, TT, ATs+, and AJo+:

H: 79%
V: 21%

But, maybe I shouldn't have eliminated ATo because A's full would also explain her re-raise. Let's put it back in. Final range AA, TT, ATs+, ATo+:

H: 69%
V: 31%


So, that means V most likely holds quad A's, A's full, T's full, or trip A's. If she calls H's shove every time it's +EV. But, with what hands would V call H's shove ($288 into $290)?

The quads and boats, obviously, and H loses, so the question becomes does she call often enough with the trip A's to be +EV overall?

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that an unknown V at 1/2 is proud enough of trip A's to call, especially because AK is here so often, and she'll be thinking her kicker will see her through. That'.s also assuming she discounts or doesn't see the possibility of H's backdoor flush.

More comments welcome, of course, especially on my PokerCruncher, which is something I rarely do. I know results, obviously, but I tried to do it as if I didn't.

This is all well and good but what matters most now is only the hands she would lead turn/lead river/3! river with. So some hands that maybe you didn't think would be in her 3! range pre you need to add back in based on the latest evidence.

I still argue that a shove will never be called with worse often enough to be +EV. When you raise the river, what does V put YOU on? And she still 3!...that is very strong unless she is a total drooler.

What would you also add back in?

8's full, 5's full, KJ. Basically everything that beats you because our decision is only between calling and shoving (since we never fold). So it is a pure value oriented analysis on shoving vs calling and therefore in order (for me at least) to be comfortable that the shove is long term +EV, I want all hands that beat me in the range before assigning probabilities.

I'm fine with the raise pre but I can't remember the last time I opened to less than $10 in my 1-2 game (100 to 400 buyin, standard raise at the stakes is probably 8 to 12). Raise more, a mini raise like this skews your range since people will probably think you have a decent but not great hand (which you do).

As played, call on turn is questionable. You're getting slightly more than 2:1 with pretty solid risk of reverse implied odds especially if a Broadway spade hits the river. If she just has trips she'll probably probably bet / call or check / call a suited river (spade or heart), but she might even check-raise a boat on the end if she is savvy. She's probably check-folding big pocket pairs or maybe calling a small bet so not much value in hitting against those hands either.

Her 3! pre is weirdly small but so was your raise... if she puts you on a decent but not great hand then A5s and A8s are both doing fine against your range, why not take the initiative and pump the pot? I don't think you can eliminate those hands, especially considering river action.

Small raise on the river is ok since trips should pay you off and it wasn't the Ks or Js that hit, but I am pretty seriously considering a fold to her reraise... if you are bluffing then her reraise has no value and if she just has trips is she specifically putting you on worse trips and jamming a somewhat risky river? Why would you wait until the river to fastplay your trips? How long did she take to reraise river?

I don't think I'm ever shoving river, maybe make a crying call since you're getting a solid price but eh

Okay, I added 88, 55, KJspades, K9spades

H: 57%

V: 43%

K9 u cant add as you have 9. I guess my real issue with range analyzers is that they equal weight every possible holding in the calculation. This makes sense in a lot of cases, but I would argue that in this specific spot, the mere fact that an older woman led/3! the river would generally mean that her range is not equal weighted. It is more polarized to quads and boats a higher % of the time.

But it is beginning to become clear (to me at least) that you are really itching for us to tell you it was fine that you shoved even though she showed up with the goods, so not sure what else I can say.

Nope, per my OP, as played I actually only called her river re-raise then, before showdown, instantly felt that I should have shoved. Human nature being what it is, had I shoved, I probably would have instantly felt that I should have called.

The point is that it was a close decision for me at the table, I've been thinking about it since, thus this thread.

Results below, everybody read at your own risk.