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Call or fold a 200bb c/ship ott? 1/2

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04-10-2016 , 10:48 PM

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

V is MAWG, chips are stacked neatly, playing like 15/8, has limp folded like 3 hands in 3 orbits, everything else opened and cbet.

Hero is playing 35/20 super monkey mode. Made an unsuccessful series of bluffs in prev orbit. Terrible image.

500 effective.

V opens UTG+1 10, 2 callers Hero flats BU 84o

Flop (40) T87r

V leads 20, fold, call and Hero calls.

Turn (100) 4o

Checked to Hero, leads 65. V Insta ships 405. Guy in middle folds.

?

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04-10-2016 , 11:04 PM

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Fold PF, fold flop. Call it off on turn though as guy like this opening UTG+1 probably has JJ+ more often than anything else.

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04-10-2016 , 11:29 PM

CoranMoran

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 249

What hands are you fearing?
TT?

There are more Overpairs than Sets in his range.
Based on your read, no others hands seem to make much sense.
So this would be a call.

--CM

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04-10-2016 , 11:36 PM

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Why would he c/ship an overpair on a super draw heavy board vs me?

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04-10-2016 , 11:36 PM

JackInDaCrak

Just Another Dopamine Pump

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,148

I hope you called and got shown J9s or TT and then you learned to quit doing things like this.

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04-10-2016 , 11:48 PM

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

Why would he c/ship an overpair on a super draw heavy board vs me?

You have a very aggro image, so he expects you to bet virtually always if checked to. He thinks he's still ahead, so he shoves once you bet to charge your "obvious" drawing hand.

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04-10-2016 , 11:49 PM

Mr. Curious

adept

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 1,194

fold preflop. You have garbage that hopes for a miracle with stacks that are not deep enough when you do hit and an image that won't let you win what you need.

AP - call - your image is agro monkey, he's not going to put you on two pair, you should be ahead often enough to be profitable

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04-10-2016 , 11:55 PM

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackInDaCrak

I hope you called and got shown J9s or TT and then you learned to quit doing things like this.

I discounted J9s because what tight mawg opens this in ep, but TT+, 88 definitely possible.

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04-10-2016 , 11:57 PM

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAHZero

You have a very aggro image, so he expects you to bet virtually always if checked to. He thinks he's still ahead, so he shoves once you bet to charge your "obvious" drawing hand

I guess combowise that's got to be right since there's only 12 of TT/88 vs 24 of just AA (not to mention JJ-KK).

Last edited by scelsi; 04-10-2016 at 11:59 PM. Reason: Oops

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04-11-2016 , 12:02 AM

#10

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Curious

I have ~20% to hit 2p so I have immediate and implied odds with two callers in the hand OTF. The question was, V obv is c/shipping "the nuts" in his mind. Whether this includes overpairs, is what I want to know.

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04-11-2016 , 12:07 AM

#11

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

I guess combowise that's got to be right since there's only 12 of TT/88 vs 24 of just AA (not to mention JJ-KK).

There are actually just 6 combos of each overpair, and 3 of each set. But your general thinking is correct that there are twice as many combos of each overpair as each set (and there are also 4 overpairs he can have vs. just 3 sets). And IMO, this guy does think that an overpair is "the nuts" vs a guy with the image you described, especially if you've been frequently flatting raises with hands like 84o.

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04-11-2016 , 04:46 AM

#12

DTLB

adept

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 904

OP, I'm kinda curious to know how you planned on winning postflop when you called pre. I'm sure you weren't calling to hit a miracle with 84o, so you must have had reads on villains and tricks up your sleeve.

Oddly enough we hit our hand and still don't know what to do. On one hand V is likely to have an OP that we crush. On the other hand, a 15/8 c/shoving 200 BBs OTT usually has our hand destroyed. I honestly don't know what the answer is. Could go either way.

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04-11-2016 , 08:35 AM

#13

BadlyBeaten

banned

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,300

Super monkey doesn't fold here. Super monkey knows an 8 is coming.

I played it like a set!!! I played it like a set!!! Ask Yani, he's a pro, he thought I had a set! It takes heart and commitment to the game to make that call.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 04-11-2016 at 08:57 AM.

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04-11-2016 , 09:33 AM

#14

BadlyBeaten

banned

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,300

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

The question was, V obv is c/shipping "the nuts" in his mind. Whether this includes overpairs, is what I want to know.

It's just a corollary of the nit theorem. It's super hard to know whether he's a nit if this is the first time you played with him.

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04-11-2016 , 11:42 AM

#15

erpdlof

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 241

lol

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04-11-2016 , 12:34 PM

#16

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB

OP, I'm kinda curious to know how you planned on winning postflop when you called pre. I'm sure you weren't calling to hit a miracle with 84o, so you must have had reads on villains and tricks up your sleeve.

Oddly enough we hit our hand and still don't know what to do. On one hand V is likely to have an OP that we crush. On the other hand, a 15/8 c/shoving 200 BBs OTT usually has our hand destroyed. I honestly don't know what the answer is. Could go either way.

Yeah, somewhat deep against nit I'm going to play ATC and just going to bomb a lot of turns and rivers, especially given his flop sizing. There are tons of nice cards for me to bluff ip.

Obv binking 2p is cool yahtzee and I will bet it the same as I would all my bluffs. So when I get shipped on OTT I'm very surprised.

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04-11-2016 , 12:37 PM

#17

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten

It's just a corollary of the nit theorem. It's super hard to know whether he's a nit if this is the first time you played with him.

True. But if I can't peg him for a nit, it's an easier fold, since there's just so few low limit players who ship T9 in this spot (vs sets and 4 combos of J9s).

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04-11-2016 , 12:41 PM

#18

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten

Haha yes I didn't factor the tilt equity of V imploding like a neutron star if I snap it off

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04-11-2016 , 12:45 PM

#19

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by scelsi

Stopped reading right here.
Fold pre.
It's not close in the slightest.
No equity. No fold equity. Terrible hand.
No reasonable way to make the nuts.

Anything that happened after this was likely a complete abortion.

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04-11-2016 , 01:18 PM

#20

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

And people are trying to tell me the games are drying up? LOL

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04-11-2016 , 08:16 PM

#21

scelsi

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Stopped reading right here.
Fold pre.
It's not close in the slightest.
No equity. No fold equity. Terrible hand.
No reasonable way to make the nuts.

Anything that happened after this was likely a complete abortion.

Pre:

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