Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Let me know if Im doing this math correctly regarding required Fold Equity. This is a real hand...
EP ($1000) opens $15.
Button ($600) calls.
Hero ($1300) calls JsTs SB
BB ($600) calls
Flop ($60) 5s5c4s. Check to EP raiser who bets $35. Button calls.
Hero check raises to $135. BB folds.
EP reraises to $275. Button folds. Lets say I decide to jam it all in here. If he calls.....Ill be putting in $865 at this decision point and the total pot will be $2095 if he calls. I'm putting in 41% of the money.
Lets say he has 9h9d. I have about 50% equity so if he calls I'm obviously OK.
Lets say he has KhKd. I have about 30% equity. Can I subtract the 30% from 41% and say I only need 11% FE for this jam to be neutral EV and if he folds more than 11% of the time its a +EV play?
We can talk about whether I should not have check raised in the first place or whether I should just call the flop reraise, but I want to know if I'm calculating needed FE correctly.
No.
And we are playing against a range of hands, not KhKd. As someone else already pointed out, it's generally pretty complicated to calculate. You'd either have to set very specific/simpler assumptions such as assuming you have zero equity when called, e.g. how much of his range has to fold for our 3b shove to be instantly profitable, similar to 3-betting preflop and the required fold equity to immediately breakeven/profit assuming you don't see a flop/have zero equity when called. this one is not hard to calculate, but it's missing a lot of information because you obviously do have equity when you get called, or you in the 3b preflop hand you end up leaking money when you flop a pair or cant get away from TP, etc. or second you end up making a model with too many variables that you assign subjective probabilities/EV and calculate the EV, and compare your hand equity vs that range, which would also not be very accurate.
X/r is getting into grey territory but most likely better than flatting. Folding is probably the best play given flop is 4-way and his cbet range here is going to be tighter on a board that sucks for his range and given there's 4 people in the pot than vs HU. Imo fold >>>> raise > call. He also has a ton of NFDs which aren't folding and you're only getting stacked by those hands, and he should have 55/44 here and some 54s which you draw dead against. Also you dont really rep much on this board and have a lot of perceived bluffs. BTN is also uncapped here and can have NFDs/5x slowplays/FHs and obviously BB can have every 5x/FH here as well/is uncapped, so raising is pretty big spew.
Last edited by Minatorr; 03-19-2019 at 10:11 PM.