Goal: to fully understand hand/pot odds or EV before i continue. i am trying to "get proper form" before i create habits.

i understand that making only +EV plays is huge so i am opening up my brain for you to dissect and correct my thought process.

i am admitting i am a donk/newb so please have patience with me if i am way off.

I calculate hand odds. assuming that if i hit i have the best hand.
Deck(47) - Outs (10 as an example) = 37 /10 = 3.7 :1 odds.

Then pot odds. Pot is $9 and bet is 2$ 9/2 = 4.5:1

Would this be +.08 EV?

I would make the bet and re do the process for turn/river. Is this correct? am i right in saying that this is a +EV play?

Thanks for your time!

You are making a few mistakes. Let's start with the easiest one.

You don't compute your EV by subtracting your odds of hitting from your pot odds. That's not how it works. Odds are just a shorthand to represent a percentage. You don't compute by combining them, ever.

The way you would really do it is this. If you have 10 outs, you will make your hand on the next card 10/47 of the time. So you multiply that fraction times the amount you win when you hit, which in your example I guess is 9. Then you have to do the same thing to account for the times you lose: 37/47 times -2.

So your EV would be (10/47)(9) - (37/47)(2) = (90-74)/47 = 16/47, which is roughly +.34.

You made other mistakes too, but that's the most important one to start with.

EDIT: I would suggest before continuing, that you look up Expected Value on your own. Learn how to compute expected value for games like roulette, where it is easier to compute the EV, and then you can move up to poker.

Welcome to the forum. Here's a good, old, thread on EV: http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...=0#Post7853639

Most important, as CMV pointed out, you also need to include the results when you DON'T hit. Second, choose one style when determine your equity in the hand, percentage or odds. Don't try to use both at the same time. I prefer percentages, as then I can use the rule of 2 and 4 and not have to convert.

after using your method i played with the numbers and instead use %.
same example. running 100 times 10 outs. = roughly 21%(Rounded down). 9 x 21 = 189
loss = 78%(rounded down) = 156

win of 189 - loss of 156 = 33+

but to simplify. 1 in 5 win = 9/8 = Positive.

Thank you for pointing me in the right direction. as a test can you calculate EV on my new example so i can compare my mental math?

Pot = 120
Bet = 25
outs = 9

First of all, if you're just starting out, you should write down as much work as possible, so that you can fully understand what you're calculating. Don't be lazy and cheat yourself.

21% + 78% = 99%

Be precise, especially when you are learning.

No, don't simplify, especially when it doesn't make any sense.

How does 1 in 5 = 9/8?

And what does it mean to be positive?

You might as well just use percentage instead of having an additional variable called "outs."

Doesn't make much sense at all.

I strongly advise you to check out:

http://www.amazon.com/Poker-Math-Tha...rds=poker+math

And being brutally honest here, I think you should brush up on basic math first before going into poker math.

10/47 = 0.2127659574468085
37/47 = 0.7872340425531915

since i wont be using a calulator at the table or a pen and paper.

1 win out of 5 played.

Winnings/loss
9(pot)/8(4 bets)

positive = not a loss.

called them outs because i count outs and then correlate outs to a %.

can you tell me the EV of my last example?

i will get the book as well, i appreciate the recommendation. currently reading super system. so that will be next

You're not at a table...


That's 1/5 or 20%.

9 divide by 8 is huh?

So you're just looking to see whether it's positive EV?

Can you even follow your own work when you're taking these bad shortcuts?

Nope, because you didn't present the question correctly.

Had you provided equity instead of outs, it would actually make slightly better sense.

Plus a simple way of figuring out EV can be done by reducing them:

120:25 = 4.8:1 or 1 in 5.8 chance.

In other words, you would need better than 17.24% equity or more for the call to be positive EV.

9 outs? I don't know whether that's on the flop or on the turn, nor whether we are going to SD or going to next street.

Furthermore, the value of calculating EV is mostly in comparing different lines (poker decisions).

For example, instead of calling $25, we may consider raising $75. To figure out which line is more optimal, we calculate EV of each decision then compare them.

right. and i wont be playing poker with a pen and paper or calculator in front of me.


right.

9 win vs 8 loss so 9/8 = 1.25 which is positive

correct. doesnt have to be exact just positive or negative.

yes.

this is for the flop only.

ahh thank you, didnt know it was part of it. i appreciate your time explaining. i will read the book you linked, and i appologize for being all over with my math. i know what i mean in my head and putting on paper (screen) doesnt always work.

thanks again.

quick definition in case you didn't catch it:

The rule of 2 and 4

outs x 2 = percentage of improving on 1 card (9 outs = .18 equity, 18%)
outs x 4 = percentage of improving with 2 cards (9 outs = .36 equity, 36%)

other fun facts:

~.05 (5%) for runner flush or set (flop only)
~.02 (2%) for runner straight or 2 pair (flop only)

good luck

It sounds to me like you have the ideas of equity and EV mixed together in your mind. Equity is basically the chance that you will have the best hand. I believe this is what you were trying to get at in your post. EV is the amount you expect to win or lose on average, and it is much more complex. It takes into account your opponents range of possible hands plus how you think he will play(fold, call, raise) the different hands in his range.