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Bottom set vs turn shove Bottom set vs turn shove

09-19-2017 , 01:10 PM
1/3NL

Hero's image is LAG. Opens UTG $12 with 55

Three callers.

Flop $48 5Q8

Hero bets $32. Two calls.

Turn $144: 9

Hero checks. Checks to button who bets $40. Button is MAWG and has been snug, and this bet size is odd from what I've seen so far.

Hero check-raises to $100.

Folds to Villain who thinks not very long and shoves for $145 more.

Pot is $284 and it's $145 to call. He's totally calm, no neck pulse, not giving anything away. Feels like the only thing I'm beating here is Q9, and he's never acting this way with just AQ.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 01:30 PM
V's $40 turn bet is odd. I would feel like he would bet more w/J10 or 67 unless its J10hh/67hh , possibly cc as well. Is he ever getting OOL on this board @ 1/3?, probably not. Sounds like your read is solid and vs. V this is just an unfortunate fold id imagine given his image. Interesting spot none the less
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 01:36 PM
Doug polk - when its your turn to die..lol . Your 32 otf bet should ko most draw, mid pair..etc except fd and in this case it is most likely fd with the inside straight *10jh. I dont see how you fold a set here lol...we can value from Qx but Mawg just seemed that confidence. I think it is that time bro..maybe you could redraw his butt loll..post result.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 01:43 PM
Pretty sick. I guess this is one of the times you can/should fold bottom set.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 01:46 PM
Turn seems bad. Why didn't you bet?
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09-19-2017 , 02:26 PM
Kinda confused by the pot size. You say he goes 145 more... so he puts in $40, you put in $100 and he puts in $245..? That would mean it's $145 for us to call a pot that has $489 in it.

So, if the amount left in eff stacks on the turn is $245, we need 23% equity min.

If he never has 1p here, the range I use has

all 76 combos, JThh, 50% 88 combos as those would likely raise flop facing a bet & call, all 99 combos, 10% QQ just for safe measure, but that'd really be 3betting pre, and just the Q9s combos, we still have 24% equity.

Now, if he's playing 76o, he should have Q9o in range as well, and if we put in those combos, our equity jumps to 39%.


Also... lead turn.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 02:46 PM
Yeah, you're right on the pot size. My bad. His range is 88, QQ, JT, 67s, Q9s. So I have 23% equity against that range.

As played, I folded. Sounds like I could have called, maybe not a huge mistake either way. He didn't show.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 03:37 PM
Just bet-call off the turn ffs and make good use of your equity, your image.
Folding is nauseatingly bad for a LAG, and so is your line.

The range above is too narrow and is nowhere near accurate before any action took place on the turn. Bet big and then proceed, not folding. Nothing better than boating up against a nit anyway if it comes to that.

Also, if you're staring at someone's neck to decide how to play your hand then you better quit now.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 03:43 PM
I like the CR on the turn. HATE the sizing. you are making V only call 60 more, getting over 4:1 on his call, where you literally have to fade half the deck.

Now, unless you plan is to never fold any river, it is not quite as bad to raise so small. And I understand that most Qx hands are most likely folding to a huge CR and you are losing some value. But really, just shove and price out all the flush/straight draws.

As played, sigh call. Your image and hand are pretty underrepped, so hard to imagine folding. But against this V, folding is not bad either.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 03:45 PM
Raise screams set-over-set or straight that is raising because they don't know how to play if a club or heart hits the river.

Why the check-raise on the turn? Surely firing or check/call would keep most of his range in, without putting you in an icky situation where you hit your set and don't know what the hell to do with it? Also, what are you doing on the river when he fires again on a blank, on the board pairing, or on a club/heart coming down that doesn't pair the board?
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09-19-2017 , 03:49 PM
you somehow found a way to make 3 bad decisions on a single street lol

we should be fist-pump playing for stacks here especially if we actually have a LAG image
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 03:53 PM
Not sure I understand why we're raising preflop, especially if one of the only reasons I can think of is to more easily get in what looks like to be < 100bb stacks if we do flop a set (and yet now for some reason we don't want to get stacks in)?

I'd fold postflop in most of my games now.

I'd pot the flop.

I'd bet the turn (likely big).

I'm lying in the bed I purposely made by calling the jam.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Not sure I understand why we're raising preflop, especially if one of the only reasons I can think of is to more easily get in what looks like to be < 100bb stacks if we do flop a set (and yet now for some reason we don't want to get stacks in)?

I'd fold postflop in most of my games now.

I'd pot the flop.

I'd bet the turn (likely big).

I'm lying in the bed I purposely made by calling the jam.

GcluelessNLnoobG
If you are going to play OOP, might as well make people pay the price for sticking around. I don't hate it, especially with a lower pocket pair. 5s are low, so unless I am getting really sick mine setting odds, probably Fold > Raise > call.

@Dizzy: Check/raising at 1/2 and 1/3 is a sign of strength. Unless I know this V gets OOL a bit, I am not loving life on his raise. Is he really raising here thinking he is going to fold our Hero out with a semi-bluff? Bottom of his range is Q9/Q8 without a heart or club. Villain has a lot more sets and straights than our hero. This is such a gross spot to be raised on.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
If you are going to play OOP, might as well make people pay the price for sticking around.
In a multiway pot where we are the ones OOP and will hate almost every flop (including, apparently, even some ones where we flop a set), who is paying the price for sticking around? Us or them?

ETA: And even though I think we're sorta forced to stick it in here at this point, I'll admit that facing a 3bet on a big street to a check/raise is pretty gross. But if this is how we feel, then we shouldn't be building big pots preflop with hands that have poor RIO against anyone willing to go to war with us postflop (which is why I now mostly feel folding is the best play preflop unless we're playing with idiots).

Gus,imoG
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
@Dizzy: Check/raising at 1/2 and 1/3 is a sign of strength. Unless I know this V gets OOL a bit, I am not loving life on his raise. Is he really raising here thinking he is going to fold our Hero out with a semi-bluff? Bottom of his range is Q9/Q8 without a heart or club. Villain has a lot more sets and straights than our hero. This is such a gross spot to be raised on.
I would have bet the turn.

If you are going to check/raise the turn, it should be a check/jam at these stack sizes

If you are going to check/raise the turn to $100, you absolutely cannot fold for $145 more needing 22.8% equity
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
In a multiway pot where we are the ones OOP and will hate almost every flop (including, apparently, even some ones where we flop a set), who is paying the price for sticking around? Us or them?

Gus,imoG
We're raising to try to avoid a multiway pot and I don't know effective stacks, which is why I said if I am not getting odds to mine set, I am folding this hand UTG.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp
I would have bet the turn.

If you are going to check/raise the turn, it should be a check/jam at these stack sizes

If you are going to check/raise the turn to $100, you absolutely cannot fold for $145 more needing 22.8% equity
From a pure equity stand point, I agree with you. I think you are getting crushed more often than not, which is why most people here seem to agree the turn action was terribad. Call, and expect to walk away with less chips.
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09-19-2017 , 04:08 PM
also I agree with gg that 55 is a fold pre at these stack sizes especially if you are going to play post-flop like this.

edit: I guess we don't know hero's/the rest of the table's stack size for sure I'm just assuming we have 100bb
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
We're raising to try to avoid a multiway pot
If a $12 raise UTG likely gets you HU, then we play in completely different 1/3 NL games (which may be the case).

G4wayswouldactuallybeconsiderednarrowingthefieldin mytypicalgameG
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
If a $12 raise UTG likely gets you HU, then we play in completely different 1/3 NL games (which may be the case).

G4wayswouldactuallybeconsiderednarrowingthefieldin mytypicalgameG
I would have raised higher too. Limping OOP with a low pp feels like a great way to set money on fire.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
Limping OOP with a low pp feels like a great way to set money on fire.
In my loose passive idiot filled games of the past, I think it was far and away the best play (and not close, imo). At my raisey non-payoffy games of the present, not so much.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 04:37 PM
And, there are other factors we have to consider. If we are being seen as lag by the opponents, what background do we have? Have we been r/f or b/f a bit? How often have we been getting out of line, and how lose are we being seen as? A lag image would mean that our V has to worry about us having more straights (a TAG person UG I am not giving a lot of QJ in his range). If our opponents are good enough to see us as lag, what does he think we have and what does he want us to do?

It's a harder decision that I want to make, but we also set our self up for this, so do what you must. I think I would Fold >shove >call here, but I admit it might be a bit mubsy of mine. My excuse is I never would find myself in this situation.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 05:35 PM
Lead turn, fold to a raise.

As played, I would have flat called the turn. The 9 is the worst card in the deck other than a heart. Two straight draws got there, so with bottom set, we are losing to a lot of combos once the button bets out on this turn card.

Again lead turn, but if you're going to check-raise, I would have check-raised any not straight or flush-completing card on the turn, looking to get it in.
Bottom set vs turn shove Quote
09-19-2017 , 05:57 PM
Just bet/gii on the turn. Don't bet/fold, and don't check/raise/fold for god's sake. You have a set and a supposedly LAG image, what's not to like about that?
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