Hero (mid twenties white kid) has had a decent session starting with $200 and building to $600. Table is very active (thanks mostly to a drunk 2/5 player who must be here for kicks) and is very deep. Most stacks are over $500, drunk is over $1000.

Villain (35 y.o. white guy) in the hand covers...sitting on about $700.

Hero has only been seen playing solid so far, villain even joked previously he did not want to be in a hand with hero. Hero has had Aces go to showdown twice in the last 45 minutes (good both times) Also called huge pot with A high (will post that one tmrw)

I have noticed villain has overvalued top pair / two pair-ish type hands. Sometimes he's been right and sometimes he's been wrong, but he gets pretty aggro with them. Also likes suited connectors.

There is a straddle...3 limpers to hero who is in the BB, looks at 88, hero completes the straddle knowing theres a 90% chance straddler is checking his option, which he does.

Flop

(pot $18) 8 10 J

SB checks to hero, hero bets $20. I pot'd bc I knew at this table it was getting called, and probably by much worse.

One caller from middle who I am not worried about (his stack is about $400 if you are interested), and villain calls from CO, which does interest me a bit.

Turn

(pot $75) K

Hero? This board is wetter than a schoolgirl at a Justin Bieber concert...

Also, does having the 8 affect your decision making in this hand?

Yuck, that turn card sucks. I b/f here for $40, but I don't hate a c/f. If we're flatted, I'm done with the hand unless we boat up OTR.

PF, I usually raise this deep, even OOP, because if we hit a set we (usually) want to play for stacks, and that's hard in a limp-pot, even a straddled one, when we're 300BBs effective.

No fun. I'm trying to see the cheapest river possible knowing there's a good chance I stack somebody I it pairs. Check.

B/f is not bad. On that board , with this type of table.. But maybe c/c and hoping to hit boat.. BC like u said , these players aren't folding TP let alone a flush or Str8.. Might be surprise to see Villian show up with just Top Two

OOP and with two callers to your pot bet OTF is not a good spot to lead from against draws that may have gotten there. B/F does not seem optimal when I'm holding a set. For that reason, I like getting to the river as cheaply as possible. I'd rather c/c or even c/f to heavy action.

You even know what your rake is, impressive!!

I don't mind betting out here ($35 to 45) to see if anyone hit their flush. There has been no aggression anywhere so stay in the lead. You can consider flating a 'reasonable' raise as I think we would have heard from 1010orJJ preFlop. You want to make the Ah and any combo draw continue to pay to beat you.

I think if you check that any made straight will make it tough for you to stick around whereas they will have to worry about the flush if you lead out here. Made flushes will also flat here and that will effect your River thinking unless you boat up.

Most Pros will say don't bet just to build a pot 'if you hit', bet for value. You are actually betting for value against alot of limpy type hands, but also semi-bluffing what very well could be the best hand. I really dont like the st-flush draw out there and if the board pairs it will set up anyone with 2 pair right now to beat you.

No reason to think you are behind until someone lets you know so ... bet out, get 2 callers and have the dealer put out the 4c to seal the deal. You don't really want to improve here if you are already ahead!!

As far as the 8h in your hand, yes, I do consider it. Not related to this hand, but if I had pocket 88 with paired board (say 10h10xJh) then I know a made flush will pay me off a bit if 8h hits the board. In this case here it is one less out for the Ah to draw on River and one less heart in someone elses hand. Small advantage for you trying to prevent the made flush, but a disadvantage that it can't hit the River for Ah to get felted to quads. GL

continued ... You can either lead or check the River if a blank. I think checking is best as any straight will not lead out think you may be setting up a c/r flush. Good players will think that made flushes would be betting River for value and might lead out with 2 pair and straights. I think you have some showdown value here and it will depend on how many customers you picked up on Turn to assist with my River choice.

Knowing that the straddled is passive I'm opening my range WAY up pf. I like 20-25 to go and maybe get one caller. Only person your really worked about is the first straddle caller all others are chit hands.( usually ) unless table is horrible.
Super super wet board I want a super cheap river . Blocker bets prob don't work here. I'd like to check and hope opponents bet poorly and see river for fair amount and get max value when hit or easy fold. Obv If u check and there's 2 raises its an easy fold as well..

Realized I kind of sounded toolish here. Wasn't trying to convey how awesome I am, more so the fact that villain sincerely seemed like he didn't want to be in a hand with me from recent history/comments. Which makes what happened next interesting.

Turn Action:

Hero bets $45.

I am glad to see there were two camps to this hand. At the time I was in the b/f camp but afterwards think the c/c is such a better line. We have deep enough stacks I want to see a river even if I think he has a made hand, so lets see it cheap as possible.

MP folds

Villain thinks for a minute, and nervously puts out $100 total. My soul read at the time was that he was sincerely nervous.

Hero? We are getting 4:1 on a call here and have a 20% chance the board pairs. So I need about $50 more from him on a paired river to make this profitable.

Questions:

1) call or fold?
2) if call, action on a paired river?
3) how does a heart river affect your action?

Thanks for the insight so far guys.

If you're getting 4:1 pot and 20% equity, you need $0 from him on the river. So, easy call. What kind of nervous? Usually, nervous making a raise, especially on a board like that means he REALLY likes his hand and is nervous you won't call. Since he's asking us to draw to a boat for a perfect price I'll oblige him since almost all the implied odds are with us. Not putting another dime in unimproved.

Totally agree with this.

nervous/shaking for many players is a sign of extreme strenghth

or in this case could be a smaller/medium sized flush nervous about getting raised

there is 0% chance of him bluff raising you here

call, because youre getting 4:1

bet 80% pot on the river if you boat up and he will call- easy game

Haha I always get my "to 1s" mixed up. I usually think in straight percentages. I know me putting in $55 into $220 would be a 25% "percent of pot" call. And 20% chance the river pairs. Sorry for confusion. So pot would need to be about $270 for me to have even odds otr

I still think it's an easy call fwiw but a friend disagreed. His reasoning I thought was actually good.

With how much this guy values top pair/two pair type hands (he had noticed it too) how happy should I be with a J river? I hadn't thought about that biut figured that would just be a cooler if it played out that way and he had KJ.

Preflop and flop look standard to me.

I check the turn. We have two interested villains and that card was one of the worst in the deck for completing draws. I would check and evaluate, most likely calling a reasonable bet. Although, having said that, we're in a super tricky spot here cuz a paired board on the river might actually have high RIO vs an overboat.

ETA: If board pairs on the river (assuming we don't quad up), what's our action? I think we'll have 2x PSB left, so nowhere near pot committed, so bet/fold for about $200 or so? Or are we stacking off here? I just don't think we're ever ahead on this board if someone raises over our bottom boat, right?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Ummm...

Turn: ($75)
Hero bets $45. Villain raises to $100.

$75+$45+$100=$210:$55 or 3.82:1. So, you need $37.80 from villain on the river which is obviously going to happen. That's not counting teh few times we have RIO.

You'd need the pot to be $220 to have even odds on the turn.

Maybe we're thinking the same math differently.

You sir, get the gold star. I knew the extreme strength part, didn't know the other read of "weak made hand". But as I said I did read him as genuinly nervous.

Action

Hero Calls extra $55.

River, as blank as blank can be. 3

Hero Checks, Villain sigh of relief Checks. Villan flips over 34 for the babiest of flushes Claims he would have folded to a repop on turn.

In any case, I mainly wanted turn betting eval'd. And it seems majority vote is for c/c line and I agree now for the reasons Spiker said in his first post. It lights the least amount of money on fire when we are likely behind but can improve to a lock hand. Normally I HATE c/c, but I think it is fitting here. Looks like I lit an extra $50 bucks on fire.

Thanks for the insight everyone

This is the super interesting part that "never was" so to speak.

I forgot to mention that MP tank folded on the turn, it wasn't a standard fold. When the hand was over and we flipped our cards he excitedly claimed he "correctly" folded J 10 on the turn. I believe him as he was uber passive and seemed pretty straight forward with his hands.

So, this would have been a way more awesome hand analysis had I got my gin card 10 OTR, only to be reshoved into. I agree gg that it at that point would have to be a fold, a puke fold as I should have realized all along that the board fits 2pr hands well.

you lit nothing on fire since you made the right play.

EDIT: forgot you bet/called. yes. you lit a little on fire.