1/3 live, 7 players

utg: $200
mp: $200 (new player)
hj (Hero = 6 6): $300
co: $400


preflop:
utg/mp/hero limps, co raises to $15, blinds fold, utg/mp/hero calls

flop ($64): 6 8 9
utg bets $30, mp/hero calls, co folds

When utg bets out, he either has top pair+, or is on a draw.
i have seen him (as first to act and not the preflop raiser) bet out on a monotone flop with tptk and having none of that suit. (it went to showdown and he won.)

no idea about mp since he's new.
he looks like he's in his 50s, lots of grey hair, button down shirt.

turn ($154): 2
utg bets $30, mp pushes for $155, Hero?


utg's weak turn bet tells me he's drawing (7x or jt).
if i was mp, i would push with a bigger set, 7t for the straight, TJ and A7, and maybe top 2 pair.

my bottom set is crushed if he only has a set or better.
my equity gets better as i add more hands he could be pushing with.

am i over thinking this for just 50bb more? Call and move on?
or Am i looking for an excuse to call because i dont want to fold a set?

What would you do?
Why?

Set in a raised pot 100bb effective, LOL live players, I GII OTT and live with the consequences.

I would raise flop most of the time. Flatting is ok too. As played I don’t see how we can fold when he can be shoving with worse

Raise the flop, especially with a caller, and fist pump snap call the turn.

Don’t fold sets in raised pots 66BB effective. That’s why. It’s not even a scary board. They will never only have better.

This is less than a PSB on the turn, so easy call.

This isn’t a scary board. 678 with flush draw is an example of a scary board for bottom set. Raise flop. As played, ship turn.

thx for reassuring me that im not a calling station and calling was the right move because it's only 50bb more.


but raise with 66 over 2 limpers at 1/3?
i would raise to $18 and cbet $25, assuming only utg and mp call. (if 3+ callers, i'm not cbetting unless i hit my set.)

you're telling me this is more profitable than over calling and set mining?

I don't think anyone said to raise preflop, not that it's necessarily terrible. Depends on the limpers mostly.

whoops.. reading comprehension for the win.
<embarrassed>

I'm fine with the hand as played so far. UTG is making a 20% PSB so he prob only has a pair and isn't calling the 155 so I jus jam now they're both only 200 eff any way

You should be raising all PP's from any position as the initial raiser when playing live. The implied odds are nearly 100% to double up every time if you hit since most players cant fold anything postflop.

I don't know if what you said is correct or not, but a counter-argument would be that we want to keep ranges wide and flops multiway so that when we flop our set with 66 it is more likely that another player has run into two pair with a trash hand like 98o (that might fold to a preflop raise). Same reasoning suggests we may want to overlimp with our weakest suited aces, like A8s-A6s and A2s, to set up a flush over flush coolers.

^ problem with that is limped pots lack the counter-initiative fish have to chase.

edit: honestly this is by no means a rule whatsoever and most people would be right to advocate against it. But I still stand by my contention that fish will pay off handsomely in a raised pot if they flop any TP or ok'ish draw

That is way too broad. There are a good number of 1/2 tables where that works but there are not that many passive/stations at 2/5. The average 2/5 player won't go broke with one pair and you run a much greater risk of being reraised at 2/5 and losing your odds.

While there is certainly more 3betting at 2/5 that doesnt mean their 3bet range vs a LAG is premium hands that would have paid off in a single raised pot if we had limped. I'd say initiative in LLSNL is as important as position, almost more so. Sure we get blown off our deuces when a player starts exploiting us preflop, but if we are a habitual limper it's still often strikingly obvious we spiked hard once the action takes off. But it's really more for the times we dont get 3bet, now our range is balanced enough even for a live opponent to be wary that we sometimes sneak in with monsters. In fact you'd be surprised how often players reduce their 3bet tendencies because they're terrified of what you'll hit on any given flop.

Auto raising PP's isnt for everybody and I wont pretend it's even close to ideal regardless of skill level. All I know is I have tremendous success with it.