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Old 04-17-2018, 01:16 AM   #1
Bostonbryan
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Bottom set on monotone + straight board

2/3 NL
Hero is in CO with TT ($600) raises to $20
Villain on the button calls ($750)
SB calls

Flop: AJTccc

Check
Hero bets $45
Villain min raises to $90
SB folds

Turn: 4x
Hero??

The min raise confuses me, but I canít put him on a made flush. I donít want to get into any weird situations with another bet on the turn from the villain and face a less than pot sized shove on the river. Should I be checking or betting here? Was the flop played poorly?
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Old 04-17-2018, 01:21 AM   #2
Bostonbryan
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Info on villain: He’s on a bit of a heater and is middle aged. Doesn’t get involved in too many hands and is fairly disciplined.
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Old 04-17-2018, 01:33 AM   #3
Mr Spyutastic
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Reads and playing tendencies of villain can sway some decisions. But I think flop is fine. Check the turn and evaluate. If he keeps bombing I'd fold the river unimproved.
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Old 04-17-2018, 02:48 AM   #4
momo_uk
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Why canít you put him on a flush with the minraise? I say he has a flush a lot here, sometimes KQ, but thatís it. I check/evaluate turn.
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Old 04-17-2018, 03:27 AM   #5
Chicagodude
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

I call any turn bet and fold river against a large bet here. You have 27 percent chance to improve.
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:25 AM   #6
shorn7
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude View Post
I call any turn bet and fold river against a large bet here. You have 27 percent chance to improve.
This.
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:40 AM   #7
Thebestfish
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how do we have a 27 percent chance to improve? I can only see 10 outs (3 Aces, 3 jacks, 1 ten and 3 fours), which would give us a 22 percent chance to improve.
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Old 04-17-2018, 11:07 AM   #8
answer20
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Typically a min-raise is 'the nuts' but both of you are deep enough that this could also just be a 'club check' position bet to see if you are just c-betting with air/weak holdings.

Really never betting Turn here .. just see what happens and you might get a free River card if he's got a naked Ac. This Board is really too wet to bloat the pot without a lot of history with the opponent, which you haven't given us as of yet.

I certainly have 3-bet folded (or jammed) these types of Flops as well, but I don't see a need to do that when you're this deep ... again, without history.

Let him have his fun riding the heater ... hopefully he keeps it cheap enough on the Turn. Most 'heater' opponents will pay you off even if the Board pairs so you can pay a little extra IMO. It's doubtful that he's putting you this strong. GL
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Old 04-17-2018, 11:53 AM   #9
gobbledygeek
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

I'm fine with preflop.

SPR is 10, which means we can play for stacks with 3 large bets. Don't think I'm comfortable playing for stacks on this board, so I'd size my flop bet smaller (both to not play for stacks as well as making it easier to call a raise), so I'd probably just go 1/2 PSB of $30 into $60. Thankfully opponent did a poor raise size and we can more easily call getting over 3:1 (but think of how difficult it would be if we faced a more normalish 3x raise).

I'm checking the turn. Yeah, there are a bunch of scare cards but our hand isn't a complete monster on this board and I want to get to the river. ETA: After reading villain description, this is even more reason to check the turn and hope we are given ok odds to call a bet.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 04-17-2018, 11:58 AM   #10
gobbledygeek
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebestfish View Post
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how do we have a 27 percent chance to improve? I can only see 10 outs (3 Aces, 3 jacks, 1 ten and 3 fours), which would give us a 22 percent chance to improve.
Yeah, if all our outs are clean, much closer to ~20%.

On top of that, all our outs aren't necessarily clean; we're drawing almost dead to AA/JJ (which aren't inconceivable) and a A/J could move us behind AJ.

GcluelessoutsnoobG
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Old 04-17-2018, 12:17 PM   #11
Lapidator
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Re: Bottom set on monotone + straight board

This is a sh&tty spot for Hero.

1) You flopped great and you want to get $$$ in.

2) V's action implies a very strong hand. IMO, we now know Hero is most likely behind.

3) The problem with Hero's outs isn't that they are dirty (as AJ and JT are a very small part of V's range), but rather they force both Hero and V to play face up. If Hero hits the case T, it will be pretty obvious to V that his straight or flush is no good.

4) The description of V implies he could get away from his hand if the board gets worse.

As played, just get to showdown cheaply.

IMO, flop sizing is too small. I would have gone for full pot hoping to setup a stackoff situation by the river.

Also, IMO, V almost never has AA or JT here.
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