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Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop

01-18-2018 , 10:04 AM
$1/$2

Lots of limped multiway pots. This is mainly due to three fish who are seeing about 60% of the flops.

A preflop raise usually trims the field down to about three or four! Most hands are going to showdown and at least one of the fish is usually there with a weak holding. Unless a big bet is made, the fish will usually chase the whole way.

There are the 3 fish, one NIT, two older guys I don't know very well and three regs I do know very well (all solid). My three reg buddies are all seated in succession to my left.

A fish at UTG limps, an old guy at UTG+1 limps and the other old guy limps.

I hold 8 8 (with about $350) and raise to $12. All fold to the fish who calls on the button (~$200 left).

The blinds and all limpers fold except UTG+1 (~$250 left). 3-way action. $45 in the pot.

Flop comes J T 8

The old man UTG+1 checks.

Believing I have the best hand right now and that the fish will call, I bet out for $25. As expected, the fish calls on the button.

The old man UTG+1 check-raises and makes it $125.

Total pot is $220 now and I'm facing $100 to call with the fish yet to act.

I don't expect the fish to call here unless he has a piece and I don't think he has a piece because he didn't raise my $25. He has been min-raising like clockwork when he has ANY piece. His flat tells me missed.

At this point there are only 4 hands that beat me.

The old man called my $12 raise preflop, so I don't think he has 97. Maybe he has Q9. It's possible he has TT or JJ, but I think he would have raised with either of those preflop (although I have nothing to base this expectation on other than thinking he would play those hands like most players).

Now what?
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 10:34 AM
My guess would be that he has JT. Old men usually don't call preflop raises with Q9 or 97. Is he capable of limping with JJ or TT? If so that is a rough cooler. I would probably shove over the top all in.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 10:44 AM
he has only 238 left and the pot is about 200... really no decision here but to gii. I think straights are a little less likely due to his range, but he could have top two or even spazzing with AJ on a wet board. He's prob raising pre with the other set combos.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 10:57 AM
Rip it in. You can't call and let a 7, 9, or Q peel off and either improve his hand to beat you or kill your action. His range definitely includes straights and higher sets, but two pair combos and maybe AJ as well. If he did flop the straight, you have decent equity to fill up.

Basically, you're never folding a set here for 125bbs, so play to maximize value.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 11:04 AM
Shove.

His range includes:

9 combos of JT
3 combos of JJ
3 combos on TT

Every now and then you'll find someome who can do this with AJ or an overpair.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogyong
Shove.

His range includes:

9 combos of JT
3 combos of JJ
3 combos on TT

Every now and then you'll find someome who can do this with
AJ or an overpair.
Old guys make this play with an over pair much more than every now and then at 1/2. They do it quite often.

If you dont push your chips all in now, please dont every raise 88 again.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 11:42 AM
Just gii (and hope the fish comes along). He probably has JT or a combo and possibly AJ. Of course, he might have a set, but with these stack sizes you must gii.

BTW, why the $12 raise? It seem so tiny. What was your plan? To sweeten the pot and pray?
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 11:58 AM
Stick it in, you'll most likely be good. JJ almost raises pre, if has TT it'll suck, and if he flopped the straight you still have outs. Best to just get it in and not have to navigate later streets.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogyong
Shove.

His range includes:

9 combos of JT
3 combos of JJ
3 combos on TT

Every now and then you'll find someome who can do this with AJ or an overpair.
Would you inc 9Qs? How many combos does that have? + could you expand on how you use combo analysis to make decisions as I see you use it in a lot of posts but I don't really know how to use it! Thank you if you do.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-18-2018 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogyong
Shove.

His range includes:

9 combos of JT
3 combos of JJ
3 combos on TT

Every now and then you'll find someome who can do this with AJ or an overpair.
If this is what V's range is [only JTs & not JTo], Hero is a 3:1 dog [25%]
There's $220 in the pot after V makes it $125 & V has $113 behind, so Hero would be putting $113 + $100 = $213 into a pot of $220 + $213 + $113 = $546

Hero's $213 would be 39% of the pot, making him a money dog. V would have had to of played JTo to make this a coin-flip. I think if V would call pre with JTo after everyone folds, he'd limp/call with 97s & Q9s & KQ etc.

It may be a coin-flip, but not vs. JJ, TT, JTs

Or, did I miss something since I'm on my 1st cup of coffee?
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-19-2018 , 02:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vomit9000
Would you inc 9Qs? How many combos does that have?
Four: Q9,Q9,Q9,Q 9
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-19-2018 , 02:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
If this is what V's range is [only JTs & not JTo], Hero is a 3:1 dog [25%]
There's $220 in the pot after V makes it $125 & V has $113 behind, so Hero would be putting $113 + $100 = $213 into a pot of $220 + $213 + $113 = $546

Hero's $213 would be 39% of the pot, making him a money dog. V would have had to of played JTo to make this a coin-flip. I think if V would call pre with JTo after everyone folds, he'd limp/call with 97s & Q9s & KQ etc.

It may be a coin-flip, but not vs. JJ, TT, JTs

Or, did I miss something since I'm on my 1st cup of coffee?
This is a good point. We don't know whether he would limp/call preflop from EP with JTo and there are only two possible combos of JTs (JsTs,JhTh).

Overplayed AJ is also the other big possiblility.

Last edited by Nogyong; 01-19-2018 at 02:54 AM.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-20-2018 , 09:11 PM
I decided to jam based on this logic:

I figured the old man would have raised with JJ or TT preflop, so I felt it was unlikely I was against a bigger set.

AJ and JT were definitely possible based on his preflop play and his check on the flop.

The room has a 30 minute high hand promo, so lots of guys come along with suited connectors. That meant 79, J8 and T8 (probably all suited) were also possible.

I didn't really expect him to have 79 here, but did consider it and Q9 in his range given how loose the table was playing. 79 was definitely much less likely since I raised the flop and he called OOP. Still, it was in his range.

I figured someone might make this move with all made straights, sets and two pair. Maybe even any AJ or A9s if the backdoor flush was there. I suppose KQ is a slim possibility but pretty unlikely since the older guys don't try to make moves with draws.

I convinced myself I wasn't against a higher set and was, worst case, against a made straight. My ten outs gave more than the 2:1 I would need to call, so I shoved, the fish folded and the old man called and showed Q9.

The board paired and I took it down.

----

Now, the part that had me wondering was the fish behind me.

If I thought he would call the $100 but fold to my shove, is it ever a good idea to just call and let him come along if I felt he would come with something like one pair or a straight draw?

If the fish did call, the old man and the fish are likely blocking lots of each others combos, right?

Too risky, just plain dumb or a good move in some cases?
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote
01-20-2018 , 09:36 PM
Just shove.

What hands does the fish have that he would call a raise to 120 but he wont call for 175?

We're still hoping the nit has AJ in his range and we don't want a turn card to come that might scare him from stacking off. Similarly, If the fish has AJ/KJ he is probably ready to go with the hand now. Also, we don't want to let the fish in cheaply with J9,T9,KQ etc. (Remember, we don't know that the nit has Q9).

If the fish and the nit are blocking each others combos, that remains the case even if the fish folds. They don't put his cards back into the deck before dealing the turn card.
Bottom set facing 3-bet on flop Quote

      
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