Local casino NL game. Stakes 20/40 (=$3/$6). Table is 8 or 9 players.

PRE-FLOP Action:

UTG(7000): limps
UTG+1(2200): limps
Hero (2700): raises to 300 holding pocket 9's.
folds around to BB(8000) who calls. The two limpers both call.
Pot is now 1220.

Players in the hand:

BB: young tight guy. Plays pretty ok, and is one of the better players at the casino. Still has some leaks. Is able to fold weak top par hands to a lot of action. Know concepts like light 3-betting, c-betting and when not to c-bet aginst fish when holding Ahigh... Is able to hand read - at least to some extend. Is patient and doesn't get carried away.

UTG: Almost unknown. But a bad player. Not much hand reading ability. Pretty sure he overplays hands = calls too much.

UTG+1: Old chinese woman. Very weak player. Absolutely no hand reading skills. Can make very weird plays.

FLOP ACTION:

Flop Comes: Ac Th 9h

BB and UTG both checks. UTG+1 bets 600 leaving her with 1300 behind.

Do I raise or do I call???????

Here are my thoughts:

I am 95% sure the woman who DB is never folding. Not if I raise now, not if another player raises, and not if we see the turn. I am putting her on an Ace og maybe a flushdraw, or maybe the unlikely two pair. So her money is always going in the pot.

The BB is folding everything but pair of aces (or better) and good draws (open ended + flush draws). If I raise I am afraid he will fold hands as good as A8 and maybe even AJ. He will not fold any ace if I just flat, and he might even raise the good ones like AJ and AQ. (he would 3bet preflop with AK). If I only flat he might raise good draws, combo draws and the nut fd (with a pair of aces)...

The UTG player probably isn't folding an ace even if I raise, but he might fold the bad ones. I dont know. He might call to light if I raise. And if I only flat he might call as weak as a ten or a gut shot. I dont think he ever folds a flush draw.

So if I raise I am afraid to get fold from hands with almost no equity (like TP). If I flat I will give a better price for the draws to see the turn.

WHAT TO DO? Flat call og Raise? (and if raise how much)?

I'm having trouble w the sizing here due to the conversion rate.

I think it's unquestionably a raise on this board. Infinite draws+A on board+multiway get your value that board is red hot for it...

Yeah your effective stack is 50Bb ish get it in

PF raise seems really large. Flop is a trivial shove, board is too wet to flat and allow players behind to draw for cheap.

This is a pretty trivial shove. Look at stack sizes.

There's plenty of combo draws, ax, and whatever else that can call that you are crushing.

Hope it held.

If standard raise is 4-5x plus extra per limper we get to 300 pretty fast.

With a short stack and bottom set and a guaranteed call I'm looking to get it in as fast as possible and not worrying about some sort of thin max value out of the other two Vs. If I got your numbers right you have 2400 on the flop. A call is way too passive, and there's no amount you can charge a draw that you don't still have to shove any turn. Just shove, it will mask your hand strength and middling As might not be able to find a fold since they hit their card.

The big sizing preflop is pretty much standard in that game. People call with a lot of junk hands anyway!

Guess I should have raised - overthinking again

Definite raise on flop -- too wet to call.

I think all in is the move here. A high ace might call thinking you're on a draw. Especially if someone has the Ah. You may also get value from combo draws.

Get it in there right now. You are too short stacked to worry about keeping the BB in. You stand a good chance of stacking both the fish so just do that.

Not a lot of good turn cards if we flat. Any K,Q,J, or heart may keep UTG or UTG+1 from stacking off.

Ship it in.

If we give a free card and a four-outer gets there, how will that feel?

If a heart comes on the turn are we getting any action if we are still good?

Shove.

Pretty slam dunk shove to me given stack sizes and reads

Thanks for all the replies....