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Old 01-27-2016, 07:56 PM   #1
Mr. Curious
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Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

$2/5
$100-300

Reads n' stuff
Mr. BJ Fish is a blackjack player who is playing almost every hand (including raises), calling station after the flop, and doesn't always know what he has. He has been facing big river bets in big pots and saying "I call, time to gamble" and has won a couple of hands because people try to bluff him.

Mr. BJ Fish is the SB with $140

BB is super weak tight with $300

Hero covers both

Preflop
Hero is the button with A 4

Folds to Hero who raises to $10, Mr. BJ Fish calls, BB folds

Flop: 9 8 4
Pot: $20

Mr. BJ Fish checks, Hero bets $10, Mr. BJ Fish calls

Hero bets to build a big enough pot that it won't seem to be a big deal to call an all-in if an Ace or the flush hits.

Hero bets here because he's noticed that if he checked behind, Mr. BJ Fish might "gamble" and push the turn.

Turn: 2
Pot: $40

Mr. BJ Fish checks, Hero bets $15, Mr. BJ Fish calls

Hero bets.... I guess because it is spew? I wasn't sure if $40 was big enough to justify a $120 river push, so building it a bit more would be a better choice.

River: 3
Pot: $70

Mr. BJ Fish checks, Hero checks
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:13 PM   #2
KKingDavid
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Check back on the turn. If he won't be bluffed, trying to bluff him is spewy. Building a pot just in case your draw hits is also spewy. Betting this flop or turn is a semi-bluff, and you need to learn that a semi-bluff is first and foremost a bluff --> trying to get a better hand to fold, NOT building a bigger pot for the better hand to win. The semi- part is your backup plan, not your primary source of value.

He called flop indicating he has something, which is probably better than your bottom pair. So just take the free card.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:17 PM   #3
johnny_on_the_spot
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

How big of river bets is he calling? That would really factor in on of we should bet at all. Also, does he bet at all or just call?
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:21 PM   #4
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

What is your opponent's range on the flop? Do we think we are ahead or behind that range? If we are ahead is he calling with worse? If we are behind can we get better to fold? Same questions on turn and river. Let's start there.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:37 PM   #5
Amanaplan
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KKingDavid View Post
Check back on the turn. If he won't be bluffed, trying to bluff him is spewy. Building a pot just in case your draw hits is also spewy. Betting this flop or turn is a semi-bluff, and you need to learn that a semi-bluff is first and foremost a bluff --> trying to get a better hand to fold, NOT building a bigger pot for the better hand to win. The semi- part is your backup plan, not your primary source of value.

He called flop indicating he has something, which is probably better than your bottom pair. So just take the free card.
Betting turn is just fine for value against this guy, nice and small. Overbet A,4,D riv.
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Old 01-27-2016, 11:12 PM   #6
dwannabe
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Betting the flop for 15

If betting the turn. Bet the turn.. I guess you were sweetening the pot? Expecting to hit?
If you think the V will call large river bet regardless of pot size. Betting the turn (Especially with that size) is definitely just a spew.

Looks kinda like you played this had face up. As I can't think of what else would be played this way. AP if the V has a clue I don't see how he pays you off if you do bink the river unless he has the second nuts which is highly unlikely given his action.
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Old 01-28-2016, 12:22 AM   #7
Mr. Curious
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
What is your opponent's range on the flop? Do we think we are ahead or behind that range? If we are ahead is he calling with worse? If we are behind can we get better to fold? Same questions on turn and river. Let's start there.
Villain has shown he will call these bets with two overs, top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, or some pocket pair. He has always had "something" when he calls, it just isn't a very good something.

He has folded to a flop bet, laughing as he showed the table his hand.

The only time I saw him bet was when someone checked behind on the flop and he pushed the turn (it was a 4x overbet and he had KJ on a J842 board).

The biggest river call I saw him make was $200 in a $120 pot (JT632 board and he had A6 offsuit and lost to JT).

I don't think he ever folds after calling the flop, so I was definitely spewy not checking behind. And in hindsight, if me checking the turn means he would push any river, then I should check every time because he'll bet all of my hands for me and I can fold whenever I miss.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:06 AM   #8
Amanaplan
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Curious View Post
Villain has shown he will call these bets with two overs, top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, or some pocket pair.
BET

Quote:
The biggest river call I saw him make was $200 in a $120 pot (JT632 board and he had A6 offsuit and lost to JT).
BETTTTT

cmon he's calling a small turn bet with only a couple of hands that beat you, against which you have equity, along with a ton of RIO hands... AJ+, diamonds, and every SD you can imagine. Build the pot a touch bigger on the turn where you're probably a slight favorite on that street and max out EV by giving him a larger pot to bet at when he hits a flush or a dirty straight or ck-c a big bet when you connect.
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Old 01-31-2016, 10:04 PM   #9
Mr. Curious
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Results:

Mr. BJ Fish shows 97 off suit and takes the pot.
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Old 01-31-2016, 10:52 PM   #10
QuantumSurfer
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Re: Bottom pair + NFD, bet every street versus Mr. BJ Fish?

Try to think through your reads to make your actions more congruent to them. Before the blind steal, we can assume weak tight BB w/60bb will fold. The donk will call with much worse, but he's only got 28bb behind, meaning we're really trying to stack-off quick w/ TP, + or a flop already dripping wet in our favor. If we don't connect, our A high will be good enough most of the time w/ a player who will likely check this down to us. He's playing ATC, he'll only connect ~1/3 of the time.

In this particular hand, we do connect with the flop. I'd c-bet even more, to ~$15. When he calls, it's obvious his range crushes ours. You've seen him call down with low pairs and in this case, we have the lowest pair. Even with this generous range:

AA-22,A9s-A8s,A4s,K9s-K8s,K4s,Q9s-Q8s,Q4s,JTs-J7s,J4s,T9s-T8s,T4s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s,74s,64s,54s,43s-42s,A9o-A8o,A4o,K9o-K8o,K4o,Q9o-Q8o,Q4o,JTo-J7o,J4o,T9o-T8o,T4o,98o-92o,87o-82o,76o,74o,64o,54o,43o-42o

we're behind 53.8% to 46.2% Granted, he might have made a bigger deal of monster pf hands, but you describe as the type who'd flat like an idiot.

Since we'll usually only be called by better, it's best to check this turn and check the rivers we miss. In general, force an internal dialogue in your head questioning the results of your actions. If you bet, and he calls, you can assume he caught some part of the flop, which means we're beat. Do not bet if you'll only be called by better. You have no FE, and the odds of you improving aren't favorable. By betting, we're only trying to bluff the unbluffable.
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