NWI NL 1/2
Hero is in a tight game with 210. Hero's been there for an hour. Villain is a 65 WG who drinks beer steadily throughout the games. He goes up and buys them from the bar. He's also a smoker. Hero saw him last month, wasn't clear what to make of him. Saw him 2 weeks ago and thought he was a nit. Now Hero??? He's got 200.
Previous Hand, Villain raises to 15, gets one caller. Flop
A55
He raises a 32 dollar pot to 65. He looks like he's all keyed up and scrambles for chips. Opponent folds and Villain shows
AA
Opponent laughs and says, "Didn't like those clubs huh?"
Is there any reason for a guy with aces full to bet that flop that heavy? That struck me as nuts.

Hand with Hero. Hero has 88 in BB.
UTG raises to 8 with about 100 in his stack. It folds to Villain on the button who makes it 21.
Hero calls in BB thinking this guy goes nuts and if I hit my set I can stack him. Good move?
UTG calls.
FLOP $64
Q33
Hero checks, UTG bets 20, Villain looks keyed up and his hands flail around. He pushes out a stack of 100. Hero auto-folds having recognized this act earlier. UTG calls off his stack. He had AK and hit a flush on the river but it was no good. Villain had QQ
Here's my question...is there any strategic reason for someone overbetting the flop when he's flopped a boat? Is there any rationale for it or is this just a monster nit who's afraid...of what I do not know.

Monster nit! MUBStastic! Insane! Thanks for turning your cards face up.

BTW - I dont think you have odds to set mine there. There are some good threads to search here on when set mining is profitable and some still say never (I disagree). Consensus is to get at least 15 or 20 to 1 bet to effective stack ratio. I'm trying to stay closer to the 20 side based on those threads.

There are better strategies than always overbetting the nuts on the flop. The most obvious con being you will fold out so much value and never give your opponent the opportunity to bluff. The cooler hands you are up against will get it in eventually regardless. Plus in higher stakes and tougher games this leaves you incredibly unbalanced.

As for your hand it's very close, but I'd probably fold it as you aren't quite deep enough and it's more difficult to get value OOP.

You guys are right. I have a very hard time folding 8s preflop in general. With 2s, 3s, it's no problem. I sometimes think on a low flop I can get the pot if i'm up against AQ or AK. I didn't even think about it but honestly i knew he had QQ or up based on the previous hand. I probably shouldn't have tried to set mine.

I wanted so bad to pull out that Dwan line, "You can never be too careful" after he showed both hands down LOL.

Clear fold pre not close

OK, it's hard to fold 8s you always want to see a flop but at 21 bucks and a 200 effective stack I understand that i'm not getting odds.

It is a common that recreational players will bet big with monsters to "protect" their hand or the fear of being outdrawn. It is less common with FH because the chances of being outdrawn is much less but you will see it once in a while.

As for a profitable strategy??? Not in cash games. I have seen Lex V C/R and overbet trips and FH on the flop against top tier players because of the board texture, Villain tendencies and cbetting/defending tendencies. In a 1/2 game, I would see it as very unprofitable.

Technically you are getting implied odds which is why it's close, but since you are OOP you want to add some buffer which makes it a fold.

Yeah I totally agree because those bets are very large in our game and rarely seen at all on flops.

Not trying to pile on, but yeah, don't be that guy who calls 10% of the effective stack pre to set mine.

If this guy overfolds overpairs when he DOESN'T hit, then by all means, call away, otherwise, no.

Implied Odds != Amount of Money in My Opponent's Stack

It's not close even remotely. If 3bing Villain was in the CO and Hero was otb with 88, it would still be an instafold.

OP: Not sure why you assume it's nittiness. In both cases the guy has a lock hand. Just seems to me he's a drunken idiot clicking buttons.

The other possibility - and I see this a fair bit - is that Villain thinks deception is the goal of poker. Like in the Aces full hand, it's possible he's thinking "they'll never put me on Aces full if I overbet." And that's true, except most people would put him on AK, and fold all their weak hands and clubs, so he misses loads of value despite having achieved his misguided goal of deception.

What hands are most likely to call an overbet on those boards? How likely are those hands given Hero's holding?

A far more reasonable spot to overbet would be 22 on AA2 as the pre-flop aggressor.

He's not thinking about you. He's playing level one poker. He sees a full house and he bets big. If you call you call, if you fold you fold. He's drinking and having a good time. Don't overthink it. He's not a nit. He's just gambling and drinking and having fun.

Yeah, don’t set mine for 10% of your stack. You only hit your set 1 in 8.5 times so even if you KNOW you will double up (which you don’t), you’re barely making money.

Good rule is to have more than 15x the raise in your stack to set mine.

Definitely, but what's the line with pairs from where you're set mining to thinking that you may have the best hand? 10s? 9s?

I never 4 bet with 10s or 9s and i admit it doesn't apply here. I did not think i'd be good on a low flop with this guy.

Wow, that is nutty because you also have to think of what others have and when you flop a boat--with aces--you want to let someone catch up or at least have a flush draw to develop. Just my opinion.

Right, but you THINK about the game. This player does not. He just says "Oh I haz top boat, I bet and hope someone calls. Pokerz is fun!"

So basically, this guy should a gold mine TO YOU as he is consistent in how he plays. When he bets large, he has large. If he doesn't, you can probably profitably bet any two cards and he will fold.

5/10NL - 6 way to the flop for $30 !!

Flop: TT5 - checks around
Turn TT54 bringing in the club flush
BB checks EP bets $60 LP makes it $210

There is now $450 in the pot.

BB shoves ~$1700

EP folds; LP tank calls with his 44. He feels it in his gut; he doesn't like it, but he can't release & BB flips T5. Question: is there ever a reason to shove for a ridiculous amount with top boat?

Man am I glad I don't play 5/10, those sums are staggering.

You're right. I'm going to remember these 2 hands forever.