Quote:
Originally Posted by uniquekwok
I am going to post the result here.
Before I do though, I want to analyze this hand in depth, which I actually did when he raised me.
First, I look back to his preflop range. He raised UTG+1, as a standard TAG, his standard range should be AQ+ with pocket pair of 88+.
Now compare the flop board, flop action with that range to narrow down the range further. I mentioned before that his range is capped when he check the flop with super wet board and 5 callers. The reason for it is that if he have a set of Qs, Nut flush, AA with As or the absolute bottom of his value range which is AQ with the As, he will not check the flop since he knows it will lose value. So basically his range is pretty medium pair heavy, might have AK with As sometimes. When he called my flop bet, I think the range tilt a little towards AK with As.
So, the turn is pretty much a brick for him in a standard range, which makes his range weight heavily towards bluffs.
After looking at the traditional ranges, I look at his raise size, trying to remember his sizing on previous hands he played. I realized that he actually never bets more than size of the pot let alone raise this much. So this raise is a polarizing raise. He's saying that I have the nuts, you can fold now. Wait, if he's telling the truth, why does he want me to fold? If he wanted me to fold, isn't he bluffing?
At the end, after I actually tanked for almost 5 mins. I concluded that his line weight heavily towards bluffs.
He has already put in a good percentage of his stack and if you shove the turn on him, the pot is going to be huge and he will have some very tempting odds to call. On the other hand, it's 1-3 NL so he probably doesn't know how big the pot is even if he plays 2-5, but he will see all those chips and know that pot is huge. This increases the chances that he will call obviously.
Sometimes when people make huge raises like that I didn't expect, they did something on an earlier betting round that surprises me. Like maybe they played some of the stronger hands in their range more passively than I expected them to. On the other hand, a huge raise I didn't expect could also be a bluff.
Don't think I'd be quick to rule out a c/r from the top of his range on the flop (or even a slowplay) when he still has 3 players left to act after him that could bet. When you bet and it gets back to him heads-up, it kind of looks like you might fold to a c/r so he waits until the turn to make a move. Just a possibility IMO.
Usually $275 check-raises mean strength so I'd have to have a pretty good read on this player to assume that
1. His range is weak
2. He will fold much of his range in a huge pot if you jam it on him
On the other hand, your shove will look really strong so maybe you can get him off of some surprising hands. But with the pot being big he is more likely to call if he has a spade in his hand (and with many of the stronger one pair hands he could have).
Quote:
He's saying that I have the nuts, you can fold now. Wait, if he's telling the truth, why does he want me to fold? If he wanted me to fold, isn't he bluffing?
Not necessarily. Many 1-3 players want opponents to fold before the river comes. The pot is already large, so this villain may be happy to win it now 100% of the time if he can (people often worry more about results in the short run than in the long run).
And he could be really worried about a 4th spade showing up and wants to chase you out if you have a spade (instead of letting you see the river and drawing out on him). People HATE being drawn out on and are happy to lose plenty of value if they can avoid a sick bad beat. They hate it even more if the pot gets to be really large.
Of course it's weak players that think like that. And players with nitty tendencies (you did say villain was tight) will often think that way. They don't like to gamble.
Last edited by Steve00007; 04-15-2017 at 07:48 AM.