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Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Bluff Went Wrong? Part I

04-15-2017 , 06:32 AM
I am not a fan of the PF call. Maybe it won't go multiway with such a big PF raise (would be good to know if that PF raise was unusually big or not, and how often pots were going multiway and how likely the players behind you were to call a $20 raise). And is that really that great of a hand to play if the pot is multiway? Two pair often gets counterfeited or loses to a higher two pair, and unlike weaker aces you can't even make a straight. And in a multiway pot you often won't see the turn/river so even if your flush gets there, you folded the flop already.

I check/fold flop. Queens, flushes, flush draws, and sets aren't going away. The bet is much smaller than the pot so there are lots of pocket pairs that could call. And even if we're ahead the turn and river will often be bad for us.

I'd check the turn also.

Last edited by Steve00007; 04-15-2017 at 06:45 AM.
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote
04-15-2017 , 07:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uniquekwok
I am going to post the result here.
Before I do though, I want to analyze this hand in depth, which I actually did when he raised me.

First, I look back to his preflop range. He raised UTG+1, as a standard TAG, his standard range should be AQ+ with pocket pair of 88+.

Now compare the flop board, flop action with that range to narrow down the range further. I mentioned before that his range is capped when he check the flop with super wet board and 5 callers. The reason for it is that if he have a set of Qs, Nut flush, AA with As or the absolute bottom of his value range which is AQ with the As, he will not check the flop since he knows it will lose value. So basically his range is pretty medium pair heavy, might have AK with As sometimes. When he called my flop bet, I think the range tilt a little towards AK with As.
So, the turn is pretty much a brick for him in a standard range, which makes his range weight heavily towards bluffs.
After looking at the traditional ranges, I look at his raise size, trying to remember his sizing on previous hands he played. I realized that he actually never bets more than size of the pot let alone raise this much. So this raise is a polarizing raise. He's saying that I have the nuts, you can fold now. Wait, if he's telling the truth, why does he want me to fold? If he wanted me to fold, isn't he bluffing?

At the end, after I actually tanked for almost 5 mins. I concluded that his line weight heavily towards bluffs.
He has already put in a good percentage of his stack and if you shove the turn on him, the pot is going to be huge and he will have some very tempting odds to call. On the other hand, it's 1-3 NL so he probably doesn't know how big the pot is even if he plays 2-5, but he will see all those chips and know that pot is huge. This increases the chances that he will call obviously.

Sometimes when people make huge raises like that I didn't expect, they did something on an earlier betting round that surprises me. Like maybe they played some of the stronger hands in their range more passively than I expected them to. On the other hand, a huge raise I didn't expect could also be a bluff.

Don't think I'd be quick to rule out a c/r from the top of his range on the flop (or even a slowplay) when he still has 3 players left to act after him that could bet. When you bet and it gets back to him heads-up, it kind of looks like you might fold to a c/r so he waits until the turn to make a move. Just a possibility IMO.

Usually $275 check-raises mean strength so I'd have to have a pretty good read on this player to assume that
1. His range is weak
2. He will fold much of his range in a huge pot if you jam it on him

On the other hand, your shove will look really strong so maybe you can get him off of some surprising hands. But with the pot being big he is more likely to call if he has a spade in his hand (and with many of the stronger one pair hands he could have).

Quote:
He's saying that I have the nuts, you can fold now. Wait, if he's telling the truth, why does he want me to fold? If he wanted me to fold, isn't he bluffing?
Not necessarily. Many 1-3 players want opponents to fold before the river comes. The pot is already large, so this villain may be happy to win it now 100% of the time if he can (people often worry more about results in the short run than in the long run).

And he could be really worried about a 4th spade showing up and wants to chase you out if you have a spade (instead of letting you see the river and drawing out on him). People HATE being drawn out on and are happy to lose plenty of value if they can avoid a sick bad beat. They hate it even more if the pot gets to be really large.

Of course it's weak players that think like that. And players with nitty tendencies (you did say villain was tight) will often think that way. They don't like to gamble.

Last edited by Steve00007; 04-15-2017 at 07:48 AM.
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote
04-15-2017 , 10:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve00007
He has already put in a good percentage of his stack and if you shove the turn on him, the pot is going to be huge and he will have some very tempting odds to call. On the other hand, it's 1-3 NL so he probably doesn't know how big the pot is even if he plays 2-5, but he will see all those chips and know that pot is huge. This increases the chances that he will call obviously.

Sometimes when people make huge raises like that I didn't expect, they did something on an earlier betting round that surprises me. Like maybe they played some of the stronger hands in their range more passively than I expected them to. On the other hand, a huge raise I didn't expect could also be a bluff.

Don't think I'd be quick to rule out a c/r from the top of his range on the flop (or even a slowplay) when he still has 3 players left to act after him that could bet. When you bet and it gets back to him heads-up, it kind of looks like you might fold to a c/r so he waits until the turn to make a move. Just a possibility IMO.

Usually $275 check-raises mean strength so I'd have to have a pretty good read on this player to assume that
1. His range is weak
2. He will fold much of his range in a huge pot if you jam it on him

On the other hand, your shove will look really strong so maybe you can get him off of some surprising hands. But with the pot being big he is more likely to call if he has a spade in his hand (and with many of the stronger one pair hands he could have).



Not necessarily. Many 1-3 players want opponents to fold before the river comes. The pot is already large, so this villain may be happy to win it now 100% of the time if he can (people often worry more about results in the short run than in the long run).

And he could be really worried about a 4th spade showing up and wants to chase you out if you have a spade (instead of letting you see the river and drawing out on him). People HATE being drawn out on and are happy to lose plenty of value if they can avoid a sick bad beat. They hate it even more if the pot gets to be really large.

Of course it's weak players that think like that. And players with nitty tendencies (you did say villain was tight) will often think that way. They don't like to gamble.
Thanks, this is actually a great comment. Thanks for sharing your in depth thought, it gave me something I might have missed. I don't like comments like, oh its a fold pre and easy chk fold and definitely a fold on the turn. I post this hand to get feedback on the situation. If the situation is as simple as fold, fold, and fold we don't need to discuss the hand. A lot of good hands are weird to get to that spot, that's what makes it unique.

OTTH result. The reason I delayed to post it because I want to get comments like that and not be results oriented. What you mentioned here actually went through my mind during that near 5 min tank.
I seriously concluded that he's really weight it heavily towards bluffing. However, I couldn't pull the trigger. The main reason is that I was down and grind myself back to near even and I am close to be done for the session and don't want to pull the trigger on a hand that if I'm wrong it will cripple me for the session.

So, I folded. He proudly turn over 99 with no spade, to show the table that he bluffed me. I was kinda tilted a little, but what the hell, I was gonna leave when the blind gets to me.

The moral of this hand for me is this: I should trust my read and pull the trigger not getting money scared. Also, don't play a high variance hand if you can't handle high variance. This whole hand I played screams high variance.
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote
04-15-2017 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Checkmaker
by saying you play laggy preflop and tight postflop that does not compute. what you mean is you are loose passive. if you are tight postflop you are not being aggressive.
You can play laggy Pf and tight postflop. Just because you play a certain way on one round, that doesn't mean you play the same way on every round.

And you can play both tight and aggressive. Many winning players do it.
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote
04-15-2017 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uniquekwok
Thanks, this is actually a great comment. Thanks for sharing your in depth thought, it gave me something I might have missed. I don't like comments like, oh its a fold pre and easy chk fold and definitely a fold on the turn. I post this hand to get feedback on the situation. If the situation is as simple as fold, fold, and fold we don't need to discuss the hand. A lot of good hands are weird to get to that spot, that's what makes it unique.

OTTH result. The reason I delayed to post it because I want to get comments like that and not be results oriented. What you mentioned here actually went through my mind during that near 5 min tank.
I seriously concluded that he's really weight it heavily towards bluffing. However, I couldn't pull the trigger. The main reason is that I was down and grind myself back to near even and I am close to be done for the session and don't want to pull the trigger on a hand that if I'm wrong it will cripple me for the session.

So, I folded. He proudly turn over 99 with no spade, to show the table that he bluffed me. I was kinda tilted a little, but what the hell, I was gonna leave when the blind gets to me.

The moral of this hand for me is this: I should trust my read and pull the trigger not getting money scared. Also, don't play a high variance hand if you can't handle high variance. This whole hand I played screams high variance.
Villain might have thought your flop bet looked weak, especially if you had a lag image already. I wouldn't worry about him showing a bluff and being proud. It happens to everyone eventually.

Sometimes in these spots we might not know villain well enough to range him well (don't know if that's the case here; you know this villain better than I do). There are times when I see an interesting bluffing opportunity but don't know villain well enough and it becomes more difficult to think of a range for him. I may or may not pull the trigger, but it sure would be easier if I'm more confident about his range and not just guessing as much. As a poster it's even tougher to range him because I haven't been playing with him and trying to pick up on his tendencies and betting patterns.
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote
04-16-2017 , 07:25 AM
You were going to bet $610 to win $535. This means your bluff has to work over 50% of the time. At 1-3 vs. a tight player, that's a low % play. Sure, this time he was bluffing with the best hand. However, he could have easily made the same decision that you were bluffing (much more likely against someone who raises 32s in EP) and called even with his 9s.

The hand was overall is just spew. That's the moral you should learn from this hand.
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote
04-18-2017 , 03:13 PM
Was gonna grunch and then gave up for some reason.

I basically agree with those who are advocating folding/checkingback at every point.

As played on the flop, I don't despise the turn bet. We could actually be ahead, and could actually still get the best hand to fold. Still, one of the things I'm coming around to is (a) never bluff an unknown (it sounds like we have very little history with this guy) and (b) never bluff an unknown with a potentially aggro image (which it sounds like we might have).

I couldn't sort thru the results so I'm not sure what happened, but overall pretty spewy, imo.

Gcourse,I'mcurrentlyintheprocessofmovingfromrockto granite,sowhatdoIknowG
Bluff Went Wrong? Part I Quote

      
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